Post on 27-Mar-2015
China’s Environmental Challenges:Energy & Climate Change
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Joanna I. Lewis, Ph.D.Assistant Professor of Science, Technology and International Affairs
Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign ServiceGeorgetown University
Presented at FSIJune 12, 2013
• Air pollution • Water pollution, water scarcity• Land degradation, desertification• Coal reliance increasing to meet
growing energy demand• Energy-intensive industries
increasing• Now largest emitter of greenhouse
gases
Current and Future Environmental ChallengesCurrent and Future Environmental Challenges
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Lake Tai toxic algae bloom (widely reported in fall 2007)Songhua Benzene
Spill (Nov 13, 2005)
Riots Sparked by Pollution from Chemical Factories in Huashui Village, Zhejiang (April 2005)
Three Gorges Dam
Global greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, PFCs and HFCs) in the year 2005 Gg CO2-equivalents per 0.1 degree grid cell. Shown are emissions from anthropogenic origin excluding aviation and land-use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF).
Global Greenhouse Gas EmissionsGlobal Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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Assessing China’s Carbon ContributionAssessing China’s Carbon Contribution
CHINACHINA
Historic Emissions
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7LBNL, China Energy Databook, 2004; newer numbers from media reports. Note: Historic capacity data includes all fossil capacity, more recent data is just coal power capacity. US, India, UK numbers are from most recent available year.
The Coal Challenge in ChinaThe Coal Challenge in China
China
2011 Capacity Share
USA 350 GW 44%
China 650 GW 80%
Emissions ForecastsEmissions Forecasts
China
USA
• Eastern coastal China– Population center– Economic center– Low elevation
• Northern China– Water scarce– Coal-dependent– Agriculture dependent
• Southwestern China/Tibetan Plateau– Low population, large share of minorities– Water rich, hydropower dependent
HotspotsHotspots
• Climate change as a threat multiplier– Water supply– Food security– Migration– Public health– Economic growth
• National impacts will have regional, and possibly global, consequences
Climate and SecurityClimate and Security
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• Sea level rise of up to 1 meter by 2050 on China’s eastern coastline; would submerge an area the size of Portugal
• The majority of Shanghai is less than 2m above sea level• China’s twelve coastal provinces contain about 43% of
population and contribute about 65% of GDP; per capita GDP 50% higher than national average
• 14% of China’s freight goes through Shanghai and 8% through Tianjin; 29% of trade income from Guangzhou
• Extreme weather events cost $25 billion in damage in 2006 alone
• Declining agricultural yields predicted (rice and maize alone a $400 million/yr export industry
Economic Impacts: Coastal ChinaEconomic Impacts: Coastal China
Coastal China and Sea Level RiseCoastal China and Sea Level Rise
If the Antarctic ice sheet melted, it would raise global sea level by nearly 60 metres. However, the response of the ice sheet to global warming is the largest unknown in projecting future sea level over the next 100–1000 years.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet, as a whole, is contributing to sea level rise at a rate 0.2 mm/y; contributing up to 2m of SLR by end of century(IPCC AR4)
• Disease– Climate change increase disease incidence and
transmission, particularly associated with increased spread of tropical diseases
– In Asia, H5N1 (bird flu), malaria expected to have increased range
– Heat-related disease• Civil Unrest
– Driven by water scarcity, particularly in heavily-minority regions
– Increased refugees/immigration tensions
Threats to Human SecurityThreats to Human Security
• China has ratified the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol, but is not bound to emissions reductions
• China has adopted many high-level resolutions and action plans, with key focus on domestic efforts– Energy efficiency– Renewable energy
• Energy is at the core of China’s climate change problem
Climate Action in ChinaClimate Action in China
19Sources: National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Abstract, various years; NBS media reports 2010; LBNL analysis.
1980-2002:Average Annual Decline of
5% per year
2002-2005:Average Annual Increase of
2% per year
2006:1.79% decrease
2007:4.04% decrease
2008:4.59% decrease
2009:2.2% decrease
11th FYP Target: Reduce energy intensity by 20% from 2006-201012th FYP Target: 17.3% (2011-2015) 13th FYP Target: 16.6% (2016-2020) *
2006-2009: NDRC reporting a 15% decline
Energy Intensity Trends in ChinaEnergy Intensity Trends in China
* Targets still under discussion
Actual energy consumption
Energy intensity
Energy consumption at frozen 1977 energy intensity = 3 times higher than with current intensity
Source: China Energy Databook, LBNL, 2004, China Energy Statistical Yearbook, 2006.
Energy Intensity: Why it mattersEnergy Intensity: Why it matters
• Is the leading manufacturer of most renewable energy technologies (small and large wind, solar PV, small and large hydro, solar hot water)
• Became largest wind market in the world largest user of clean energy overall in 2010
• Is developing first of its kind government-coordinated gigawatt-scale wind and solar projects
• Invested $54.4 billion in clean energy in 2010 – more than any other country
China’s Clean Energy AchievementsChina’s Clean Energy Achievements
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Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, October 2012;UNEP, Global Trends in RE Investment, 2012.
Units = $BN
Note:. Figures include asset finance (financing of large-scale power-generating projects), public markets (funds raised over the stock markets), venture capital and private equity (financing for primarily private companies from private investors), and funding for small-scale renewable power generation (mainly residential or small commercial photovoltaic systems). Excludes corporate and government R&D. Figures adjusted for re-invested equity.
Or $252.5 billion in 2011 including all investment flows (R&D, undisclosed deals)
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Clean energy is now a $60-70 billion industry globally
EU
USA
ROW
Brazil
Asia-8
Japan
Notes: Clean energy technologies include biomass, geothermal, wind, solar, biofuels, and energy smart technologies and energy efficiency. New investment includes private and public R&D, venture capital, private equity, and public markets (mergers and acquisitions are excluded). Asia-8 includes India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. ROW=Rest of World; EU=European Union; USA=United States of America; UK=United Kingdom; PCT=Patent Cooperation Treaty (streamlined intl. appl. process).Sources: Investment data from Science and Engineering Indicators 2012 (US National Science Foundation 2012); patent data from OECD Patent Database (OECD 2011).
China
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Emerging economies are playing an increasingly important role in investment and innovation
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Non-Hydro Renewables Still Small Share of Electricity Capacity
Non-Hydro Renewables Still Small Share of Electricity Capacity
2015 2020
Wind capacity >100 GW >200 GW
Wind power 190 bln kWh >380 bln kWh
Solar capacity >20 GW >50 GW
Biomass capacity 13 GW 30 GW
Hydropower capacity 260 GW
Pumped storage hydro 30 GW
Geothermal and tidal 110-120 MW
Ocean power 50 MW
Nuclear 40-50 GW 60-70 GW
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Non-Fossil Energy TargetsNon-Fossil Energy Targets
-Target for 15% of its primary energy consumption from non-fossil fuel by 2020 -18 GW of PV in 2010 installed globally (so their 2020 target is more than twice current global installations).
Decision on speeding up the cultivation and development of emerging strategic industries ( 国务院通过加快培育和发展战略性新兴产业的决定 ) http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2010-09/08/content_1698604.htm; HSBC, China’s next 5-year plan, October 2010.
12th FYP: Strategic Industries Redefined12th FYP: Strategic Industries Redefined
The old pillar industries
The new strategic and emerging industries
1 National defense Energy saving and environmental protection
2 Telecom Next generation information technology
3 Electricity Biotechnology
4 Oil High-end manufacturing (e.g. aeronautics, high speed rail)
5 Coal New energy (nuclear, solar, wind, biomass)
6 Airlines New materials (special and high performance composites)
7 Marine shipping Clean energy vehicles (PHEVs and electric cars)
• “Pillar industries” – strategically important for national security and public interests (over 70% of SOE assets and profits concentrated in the “old” pillar industries)
• Receive access to dedicated state industrial funds; increased access to private capital
• Supported by national industrial policy (tariffs, preferential loans, R&D funds)26
• National Renewable Energy Law in place to mandate interconnection and set framework for pricing subsidies
• National targets to achieve 15% of primary energy and 20% of electricity capacity from renewables by 2020
• Developing first of its kind government-coordinated GW-scale wind and solar projects
• Now the largest producer of solar photovoltaics in the world (mostly exported); home to several advanced wind turbine manufacturers (mostly used domestically)
• Use of solar hot water technology exceeds that of all other countries combined, also leader in microhydro power, many bio-power technologies
• Stimulus package contains significant incentives for renewables (including building-integrated PV)
Renewable EnergyRenewable Energy
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Wind and Solar Power Installations, USA & China
Wind and Solar Power Installations, USA & China
BP 2011; Burgess 2012; Lacey 2012
Source: NSF Science and Engineering Indicators 2012
EU wind
EU wind, EU solar
China wind
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Wind energy in China represents the largest clean energy investment anywhere
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The Chinese success storyCumulative wind power capacity installed
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The Chinese success storyHuge gain in market share
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Large-scale domestic expansionProvinces becoming hubs of manufacturing and deployment
• Carbon intensity target: 40-45% below 2005 level by 2020– Actual emissions reduced will depend on economic growth – Target was announced in Copenhagen but is enshrined in
China’s 12th Five-Year Plan along with strategic clean energy R&D programs
• Decarbonization of energy supply facilitated by achieving renewable energy goals and increased energy efficiency
• Real progress being made domestically in monitoring and verification in both areas which will be important to achieving international commitments
• Builds upon the systems in place for energy intensity target, but will require a new system of GHG accounting– Additional climate policies to reduce emissions under
development, including a carbon trading program
Carbon TargetsCarbon Targets
• Local environmental and energy challenges rank above global (but both rank below other national priorities)
• Policies are world-class, but implementation is the real challenge
• Security concerns brought on by environmental and climate impacts could play a major role in prioritizing environmental protection
Response to Environmental ChallengesResponse to Environmental Challenges
• China’s domestic actions leading them to dominate cleantech, but emissions still increasing rapidly– Leading to growing trade tensions in low-
carbon industries - border measures key issue during climate legislation debates; multiple WTO investigations underway on wind/solar
– Becoming a big factor in Sino-US relations; other countries joining in
– China is playing a very important role already (cost reductions, manufacturing scale), and the rest of the world will benefit
International ResponsesInternational Responses
• China moving ahead on domestic carbon policy but still not a leader in the international climate negotiations• Environmental
diplomacy secondary to domestic priorities
• Impacts China will face from climate change will be severe, and could drive domestic action to reduce emissions– Impacts regional, not just localized
• Existing environmental problems (air pollution, water scarcity) and other security drivers (food production, immigration) will be exacerbated– Key security hot spots are a particular cause of concern
• International retaliation to China’s inaction also a risk– Likely increase in trade sanctions if cooperative
approach not taken– Regional, even global implications due to China’s scale
and central role
ConclusionsConclusions