CCOS July, 1999 Episode -- Air Quality Simulation

Preliminary Episode Evaluation and Simulation Results

California Air Resources BoardPlanning and Technical Support Division

February 3, 2004

Analysis of Observed Ozone Concentrations During

the July, 1999 CCOS Study Period

Date DOY SFBay Sac. Fresno Kern Domain

July 6, 187 >60 106 106 121 122Wed 7, 188 78 81 111 90 111Thr 8, 189 77 114 155 121 155Fri 9, 190 71 127 125 111 127Sat 10, 191 115 147 116 127 147Sun 11, 192 146 137 142 119 146Mon 12, 193 156 140 125 76 156Tue 13, 194 83 103 132 87 132Wed 14, 195 >60 96 94 102 119Thr 15, 196 >60 78 104 68 104

Observed Peak Daily Ozone Concentrations (ppb), by CCOS Subregion for the July, 1999 Episode

Hour Conc Hour Conc(PDT) (ppb) (PDT) (ppb)

00 18 12 109 01 18 13 125 02 16 14 155 03 11 15 126 04 10 16 99 05 13 17 82 06 24 18 70 07 29 19 57 08 40 20 45 09 59 21 50 10 86 22 61 11 96 23 44

Observed Ozone Concentrations at Parlier on July 08, 1999

Maximum Observed Ozone Concentration (ppb) for July 6, 1999

Maximum Observed Ozone Concentration (ppb) for July 7, 1999

Maximum Observed Ozone Concentration (ppb) for July 8, 1999

Maximum Observed Ozone Concentration (ppb) for July 9, 1999

Maximum Observed Ozone Concentration (ppb) for July 10, 1999

Maximum Observed Ozone Concentration (ppb) for July 11, 1999

Maximum Observed Ozone Concentration (ppb) for July 12, 1999

Maximum Observed Ozone Concentration (ppb) for July 13, 1999

Maximum Observed Ozone Concentration (ppb) for July 14, 1999

Maximum Observed Ozone Concentration (ppb) for July 15, 1999

Preliminary Simulation Period:

-- July 07-14, 1999

Study Simulation Period:

-- July 08-12**, 1999

CCOS Air Quality Simulation Period for July, 1999

** or through July 13?

Date DOY SFBay Sac. Fresno Kern Domain

July 6, 187 >60 106 106 121 122Wed 7, 188 78 81 111 90 111Thr 8, 189 77 114 155 121 155Fri 9, 190 71 127 125 111 127Sat 10, 191 115 147 116 127 147Sun 11, 192 146 137 142 119 146Mon 12, 193 156 140 125 76 156Tue 13, 194 83 103 132 87 132Wed 14, 195 >60 96 94 102 119Thr 15, 196 >60 78 104 68 104

Observed Peak Daily Ozone Concentrations (ppb), by CCOS Subregion for the July, 1999 Episode**

** Air Quality Simulation Period is Enclosed in the Box

CCOS July, 1999 Episode

Initial Conditions: -- From September, 2000 CCOS Episode

Boundary Conditions: -- From September, 2000 CCOS Episode

Meteorological Fields: -- ARB/MM5 with obs. FDDA -- CALMET/MM5 Hybrid

Emission Inventories: -- Prepared by Alpine Geophysics (no fires)

Comparisons of Air Quality Performance Statistical Measures**

** ALL Air Quality Simulation Results are Prelimiary

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Proposed SubRegions for CCOS Model Performance Evaluation

Statistical Measures for Air Quality Model Performance

1. Unparied peak ratio (0.80 - 1.20):

2. Paired Normalized Bias (-0.15 - +0.15)**:

3. Paired Normalized Gross Error (< 0.35)**:

1 Simi - Obsi

N i Obsi

1 Simi - Obsi

N i Obsi

Simmax

Obsmax

PR =

NB =

GE =

** For Observed Ozone concentrations above 60 ppb (from USEPA, 1991)

x 100

x 100

CB4/MM5 SAPRC99/MM5 SAPRC99/CMHyb OPk SPk UPkR NB SPk UPkR NB SPk UPkR NB ppb ppb -nd- % ppb -nd- % ppb -nd- %

DOY 192 -- July 11, 1999Subregion 146 139 0.95 -10 149 1.02 +00 180 1.23 +10 Concord 126 117 0.96 -20 126 1.00 -10 135 1.07 -11 Fremont 133 104 0.78 -04 118 0.89 +09 120 0.90 +12 Livermore 146 132 0.90 -12 142 0.97 -09 161 1.10 +17

DOY 193 -- July 12, 1999Subregion 156 144 0.92 -04 158 1.01 +09 186 1.19 +15 Concord 156 109 0.70 -27 130 0.83 -14 160 1.03 -13 Fremont 98 104 1.06 +08 115 1.17 +24 116 1.18 +26 Livermore 144 121 0.84 -11 125 0.87 -06 140 0.98 -01

DOY 194 -- July 13, 1999Subregion 83 114 1.37 -13 123 1.48 +07 112 1.35 -22 Concord 66 53 0.80 -24 66 1.00 -04 61 0.92 -18 Fremont 61 74 1.21 -13 92 1.51 +07 55 0.90 -10 Livermore 83 83 1.00 +21 93 1.12 +07 59 1.35 -22

CAMx ozone Model Performance for the SF Bay Subregion of the CCOS Modeling Domain.

CB4/MM5 SAPRC99/MM5 SAPRC99/CMHyb OPk SPk UPkR NB SPk UPkR NB SPk UPkR NB ppb ppb -nd- % ppb -nd- % ppb -nd- %

DOY 191 -- July 10, 1999Subregion 147 108 0.73 -22 131 0.89 -07 161 1.09 +01 Folsom 147 87 0.59 -30 106 0.72 -19 130 0.88 -10 Placerville 129 83 0.65 -31 103 0.80 -20 137 1.06 -18 Sac DPManor 131 80 0.61 -35 100 0.72 -20 96 0.74 -14 Sloughouse 128 104 0.81 -13 127 0.99 +02 119 0.93 +01

DOY 192 -- July 11, 1999Subregion 137 138 1.01 -20 150 1.10 -10 171 1.25 -05 Auburn 133 104 0.78 -17 117 0.88 -10 157 1.18 +10 Folsom 137 92 0.67 -26 104 0.76 -20 155 1.14 -06 Cool 135 89 0.66 -26 103 0.77 -19 146 1.08 -03 Sloughouse 131 84 0.64 -32 100 0.76 -23 126 0.96 -02

DOY 193 -- July 12, 1999Subregion 140 144 1.03 -07 158 1.13 -01 189 1.35 +01 Folsom 111 128 1.16 +06 139 1.26 +11 129 1.16 +05 Tracy 132 125 0.95 -18 128 0.97 -14 141 1.07 -09 Sonora 130 76 0.59 -25 78 0.60 -30 82 0.63 -17 Vacaville 140 95 0.68 -19 102 0.73 -12 131 0.93 +05

CAMx Ozone Model Performance for the Sacramento/Delta Subregion of the CCOS Modeling Domain.

CB4/MM5 SAPRC99/MM5 SAPRC99/CMHyb OPk SPk UPkR NB SPk UPkR NB SPk UPkR NB ppb ppb -nd- % ppb -nd- % ppb -nd- %

DOY 192 -- July 11, 1999Subregion 142 111 0.78 -22 125 0.88 -08 141 0.99 -07 Clovis 142 101 0.71 -26 117 0.82 -13 107 0.75 -21 Fresno-1st 135 109 0.81 -24 123 0.91 -09 100 0.74 -19 Parlier 116 84 0.73 -19 101 0.87 -03 129 1.11 +09

DOY 193 -- July 12, 1999Subregion 125 113 0.90 -16 115 0.92 -14 147 1.17 -01 Clovis 124 104 0.84 -16 109 0.88 -14 112 0.90 -11 Fresno-1st 115 93 0.81 -20 99 0.86 -16 106 0.92 -14 Parlier 97 85 0.88 +01 88 0.90 +03 117 1.20 +29

DOY 194 -- July 13, 1999Subregion 132 105 0.79 -17 106 0.80 -15 144 1.09 +04 Clovis 113 98 0.87 -17 100 0.88 -16 110 0.97 -08 Fresno-1st 122 94 0.77 -22 98 0.80 -18 108 0.89 -06 Merced 132 87 0.66 -32 92 0.70 -28 102 0.77 -15

CAMx Ozone Model Performance for the Fresno Subregion of the CCOS Modeling Domain.

CB4/MM5 SAPRC99/MM5 SAPRC99/CMHyb OPk SPk UPkR NB SPk UPkR NB SPk UPkR NB ppb ppb -nd- % ppb -nd- % ppb -nd- %

DOY 191 -- July 10, 1999Subregion 127 94 0.74 -27 111 0.87 -13 111 0.87 -20 Arvin 127 87 0.68 -24 103 0.81 -12 105 0.82 -17 Oildale 99 72 0.73 -32 84 0.85 -23 81 0.82 -31

DOY 192 -- July 11, 1999Subregion 119 103 0.86 -31 109 0.91 -19 119 1.00 -30 Edison 119 90 0.75 -30 97 0.82 -17 90 0.76 -31 Oildale 104 84 0.81 -24 96 0.92 -10 88 0.85 -27

DOY 193 -- July 12, 1999Subregion 76 102 1.34 -24 95 1.25 -26 94 1.23 -37 Arvin 64 57 0.90 -10 55 0.86 -14 40 0.62 -38 Oildale 70 59 0.84 -35 63 1.25 -31 54 0.77 -37

CAMx Ozone Model Performance for the Bakersfield Subregion of the CCOS Modeling Domain.

Time Series Plots Comparing Observed andSimulated Concentrations of O3, NOx, and CO

Comparisons of observed and simulated O3, NOx, and CO concentrations at Livermore for July 8-13, 1999 using CAMx.

Comparisons of observed and simulated O3, NOx, and CO concentrations at Concord for July 8-13, 1999 using CAMx.

Comparisons of observed and simulated O3, NOx, and CO concentrations at Folsom for July 8-13, 1999 using CAMx.

Comparisons of observed and simulated O3, NOx, and CO concentrations at Sac. Del Paso for July 8-13, 1999 using CAMx.

Comparisons of observed and simulated O3, NOx, and CO concentrations at Sloughouse for July 8-13, 1999 using CAMx.

Comparisons of observed and simulated O3, NOx, and CO concentrations at Cool for July 8-13, 1999 using CAMx.

Comparisons of observed and simulated O3, NOx, and CO concentrations at Fresno-First for July 8-13, 1999 using CAMx.

Comparisons of observed and simulated O3, NOx, and CO concentrations at Parlier for July 8-13, 1999 using CAMx.

Comparisons of observed and simulated O3, NOx, and CO concentrations at Clovis for July 8-13, 1999 using CAMx.

Status of Air Quality Modeling for the July, 1999 CCOS Episode

Air Quality Modeling:

-- Proposed simulation period of July 8-12, 1999.

-- Modeling performance varies by CCOS subregion and generally degrades from north to south.

-- Simulations often overestimate observed peak ozone concentrations.

-- Model performance statistical measures are not too bad in some subregions, for some days. However, peak simulated ozone concentrations are often mis-located.

Air Quality Modeling (cont.):

-- Anticipated adjustments to MM5 meteorological fields may significantly influence air quality model results.

THE END