Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy. 

Prof Ray Wills

Director and PartnerDuda&Wills

Chief AdviserSustainable Energy Association of Australia

Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia

Adoption of technology

The natural turnover and retirement of appliances, buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest penetration of sustainable energy in the next ten years.

However, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’

The transition to sustainable energy, like many new technology shifts, will be more rapid with changes favoured by: policy measures and regulation; consumer sentiment; pricing advantage.

Roger’s diffusion curve

Technology adoption rates – US Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)

NY Times

Technology adoption rates - vehicles

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption rates - vehicles

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption - manufacturers

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption rates

Can historic deployment rates be used to describe future technologies? Expect some similarities – just faster!

Small-scale deployment for approximately five years- exponential growth and an inflection point ten or more years after first application

Is there an opportunity for disruptive technology entry? Beginnings of disruptive innovation may be in market

innovations, Vehicle ownership model (eg Better Place) could rapidly change

the how and what is purchased Roof top solar – companies may own the panels on your roof

Technology adoption rates

Marked decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication between

consumers - blogspace Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs Regulation Energy security

Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010

How clean are Europe’s cars?

Wake up and smell the roses

Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet Landline -> mobile -> smartphone Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) Retail shopping Boutique-> chain/mega ->

Internet Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> solar

Global electricity investment growth

Global renewables

Renewable energy growth

Data IEA

Global renewables 2013?

Data UNEP

Global electricity …

Global electricity growth - Europe

Australian renewables 2011…

The transformation of Australia’s energy mix has begun – in 2011 new electricity generation construction 25% solar, 31% gas and 33% wind.

Coal-fired power currently 75% of Australia’s total generation - in 2011 only 14% of new investment was coal.

This is still behind the average world-wide investment in renewable energy – China’s economy 8 times larger than Australia, investment in renewables over 20 times larger!

Australian electricity …

Data ABARES

Australian electricity consumption 2012…

Australian electricity consumption 2012…

Data AEMO

Electricity market projections – WA

Solar on Australian homes

Solar on WA homes

City of Cockburn

Sustainable energy and energy efficiency

Energy efficiency in all forms Distributed, renewable energy Known costs, resource life 1000++ years Stored energy in commodities, desal Energy storage key to:

improved energy delivery increased reliability reduced emissions

Technology energy use

www.epri.com

Global electricity growth

Rapid change - Personal mobility

Fuel efficiency, other energy sources Transport Energy storage key New technologies may be disruptive

Private transport

Electric mass transit

Commercialvehicles

Smith Newton electric truck Mega electric diesel hybridsLondon BusHaul Pak + EarthmoverMitsubishi FusoHonda prime moverOshkosh Military Vehicle

Flying and floating fuels

February 25, 2008 – Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight

October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New Synthetic Fuel on Plane

February 14, 2011 – Qantas follows US Military to algae biofuels

September 13, 2011 – US Navy announces by 2016 Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels, is able to operate independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption

Smart grids, smart houses (and farms) Integrated energy planning

Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators

Green cities

Global Tianjin Eco-City China Ulsan Ecocity Korea Masdar City UAE

Australia City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 City of Melbourne Stirling City Centre, Perth City of Fremantle Yanchep – 2 x 100 000

Local government critical

www.seaaus.com.au