capturingthedynamicsofestuarineprocesses

acrossmul4plespa4alandtemporalscales

ParkerMacCreadyKristenDavis

BarbaraHickeyNeilBanas

SamanthaSiedleckiMichaelWhitneyAngelicaGilroy

NirnimeshKumarFalkFeddersen

collaborators&contributors

SarahNGiddingsScrippsIns4tu4onofOceanographyCLIVAR-PSMImee4ng14June2016

Introduc4on• mo4va4on

Estuarineinfluenceontheshelfandbeyond• buoyancyandheatdeliverytotheshelf• nutrientdeliveryandproduc4vity

Currentestuarineresearch&simpleparameteriza4ons• highlightsofcurrentestuarineresearch&theory• cantheseprocessesbebeVerrepresentedinglobalandregionalclimatemodels?MaybethroughQandS?

Influenceofachangingclimate• spa4aldistribu4onoffreshwaterinputs• 4mingoffreshwaterinput

ocean/estuarineinterac4ons

Introduc4on• mo4va4on

Estuarineinfluenceontheshelfandbeyond• buoyancyandheatdeliverytotheshelf• nutrientdeliveryandproduc4vity

Currentestuarineresearch&simpleparameteriza4ons• highlightsofcurrentestuarineresearch&theory• cantheseprocessesbebeVerrepresentedinglobalandregionalclimatemodels?MaybethroughQandS?

Influenceofachangingclimate• spa4aldistribu4onoffreshwaterinputs• 4mingoffreshwaterinput

ocean/estuarineinterac4ons(whyyouwantfreshwatercorrectlyinyourmodel!)

100km

GangesDelta,IndiahVp://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/earth/1_23425bc3820cd972c628e8835f4eb102.jpg

mo4va4on

Whydowecareaboutestuarine/coastalinterac4ons?• deliveryofterrigenousmaterialtothecoastalocean(sediment,pollutants,etc.)

mo4va4on

TijuanaRiverplumeinImperialBeach,CAcourtesyofWILDCOASTChlorophyllintheSalishSeahVp://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/3000/3613/S2003190210100.jpg

Whydowecareaboutestuarine/coastalinterac4ons?• ocean/estuaryexchangeanddeliveryofnutrients,primaryproduc4vity,lowpH,andO2depletewater

(e.g.Roegneretal.2011,MonteiroandLargier1999,NewtonandHorner2003,O’Callaghanetal.2007)

500km

AquariusseasurfacesalinityattheAmazonRiverPlumeImagefromhVp://www.myocean.eu/automne_modules_files/pmedia/public/r2_9_200911_amazon_june-4.jpg

mo4va4on

Whydowecareaboutestuarine/coastalinterac4ons?• deliveryofheatandbuoyancytothecoastalocean

• transportprocesses(includingHarmfulAlgaeBlooms(HABs),larvalconnec4vity,etc.)

(e.g.,Banasetal.2009,YamadaandKosro2010,McConnaugheyetal.1994)

Introduc4on• mo4va4on

Estuarineinfluenceontheshelfandbeyond• buoyancyandheatdeliverytotheshelf• nutrientdeliveryandproduc4vity

Currentestuarineresearch&simpleparameteriza4ons• highlightsofcurrentestuarineresearch&theory• cantheseprocessesbebeVerrepresentedinglobalandregionalclimatemodels?MaybethroughQandS?

Influenceofachangingclimate• spa4aldistribu4onoffreshwaterinputs• 4mingoffreshwaterinput

ocean/estuarineinterac4ons

physical-biogeochemicalsimula4ons

iodlabs.ucsd.edu/sgiddings/PNWTOX/resultsHypoxia.htmlUWCoastalModelingGroupCascadiasimula4ons

freshwaterinput:annualaverage

Thisfresherwaterimpactstransport,upwelling,buoyancyandmore!

CRnearshoreSSoffshore

meanwindstress

200m

contribu4ontoprimaryproduc4vity

DespitetheCRdomina4ngbuoyancyinput,theSalishSeacontributesmosttoPNWprimaryproduc4vityduetoitsstrongestuarineexchangereturningsignificantnutrientstotheoceansurfaceFigurefromDavisetal.2014.Thisisjustthe4poftheiceberg,excellentrecentworkbySiedlecki,Feely,Hill,Bap4staandotherslookingatotherbiogeochemicalimpacts(pH,alkalinity,DIC,etc.)

summary–shelfinfluence

highnutrients!

theCRdominatesbuoyancyinputandphysicaltransport

however,theSalishSeacontributesmosttoPNWprimaryproduc4vityduetoitsstrongestuarineexchangereturningsignificantnutrientstotheoceansurface

AsParkerMacCreadyreferstothese:estuarine“baVeriesofenergy”

estuarineinfluenceontheshelfintermsoftransportandbiogeochemicalprocessesdependsonupstream(river)anddownstream(ocean)condi4onsANDdynamicsinsideoftheestuary!

upwelling downwelling

(seeGiddingsetal.2014,Banasetal.2009,Siedleckietal.2015,Davisetal.2015)

Introduc4on• mo4va4on

Estuarineinfluenceontheshelfandbeyond• buoyancyandheatdeliverytotheshelf• nutrientdeliveryandproduc4vity

Currentestuarineresearch&simpleparameteriza4ons• highlightsofcurrentestuarineresearch&theory• cantheseprocessesbebeVerrepresentedinglobalandregionalclimatemodels?MaybethroughQandS?

Influenceofachangingclimate• spa4aldistribu4onoffreshwaterinputs• 4mingoffreshwaterinput

ocean/estuarineinterac4ons

whatareQandSexi4ngtheestuary?

whatitboilsdownto:

howtobestrepresentestuaries&plumes?• whichQ?• 2-waynes4ng?• modifiedsalinity?• simplifiedparameteriza4ons?• howmanyestuariestoinclude?

howtorepresenttheminthefuture?

Schema4cof4dally-averagedsalinityandvelocitystructurefromMacCready&Geyer,2010basedonKnudsenrela4onship

residualestuarinecircula4on

Excellentreviewpapers:MacCready&Geyer2010,Geyer&MacCready2014

QR Qout

Qin

Socn

river

ocean

s=constant

L

η

salinitycross-sec4on

estuaryvelocitycross-sec4on

Sout

Basicestuarinedynamics• longitudinaldensitygradients• 4desgeneratemixingviaboVomfric4on• theamountofmixing(i.e.,strengthofthe4des)andthestrengthoftheriverflowdetermineiftheestuaryiswell-mixed,par4allymixed,orstronglystra4fiedanddeterminetheriverplumebuoyancyandmomentum

ρ+

ocean(salty&cold)

river(fresh&warm)

Tides

Well-mixed

ρ-

residualestuarinecircula4on-theory

Excellentreviewpapers:MacCready&Geyer2010,Geyer&MacCready2014

Basicestuarinedynamics• longitudinaldensitygradients• 4desgeneratemixingviaboVomfric4on• theamountofmixing(i.e.,strengthofthe4des)andthestrengthoftheriverflowdetermineiftheestuaryiswell-mixed,par4allymixed,orstronglystra4fiedanddeterminetheriverplumebuoyancyandmomentum

ρ+

ocean(salty&cold)

river(fresh&warm)

Tides

Par4ally-mixed

ρ-

residualestuarinecircula4on-theory

Excellentreviewpapers:MacCready&Geyer2010,Geyer&MacCready2014

Stronglystra4fied

Basicestuarinedynamics• longitudinaldensitygradients• 4desgeneratemixingviaboVomfric4on• theamountofmixing(i.e.,strengthofthe4des)andthestrengthoftheriverflowdetermineiftheestuaryiswell-mixed,par4allymixed,orstronglystra4fiedanddeterminetheriverplumebuoyancyandmomentum

ρ+

ocean(salty&cold)

river(fresh&warm)

Tides

ρ-

residualestuarinecircula4on-theory

Excellentreviewpapers:MacCready&Geyer2010,Geyer&MacCready2014

frontalstrength?

waves?

remoteinternalwaves?

ice/plumeinterac4ons?

under-iceestuaries?

mul4plesmallestuaries?

foodforthought…

CSIDEproject,NSF,scripps.ucsd.edu/projects/cside/

photobyNStatomandSHolleman

(e.g.,Horner-Devine,MacDonald,Geyer,etc.)

(e.g.,Gerbietal.2013,Gilory&Giddings,ongoing)

(e.g.,Alfordetal.2012)

(e.g.,Deanetal.1994,Woodetal.2013)

(e.g.,Horganetal.2013)

(e.g.,Mazzinietal.2014,Wetzetal.2006)

waveimpactsonplumemixinganddispersion?

frontalstrength?

waves?

remoteinternalwaves?

ice/plumeinterac4ons?

under-iceestuaries?

mul4plesmallestuaries?

foodforthought…

(e.g.,Horner-Devine,MacDonald,Geyer,etc.)

(e.g.,Alfordetal.2012)

(e.g.,Deanetal.1994,Woodetal.2013)

(e.g.,Horganetal.2013)

(e.g.,Mazzinietal.2014,Wetzetal.2006)

SSTimagetakenon5July2012fromtheJPLOurOceanprojectshowsthewarmMackenzieRiverplumeextendingfarintotheBeaufortSeaduringupwelling(e.g.,Nghiemetal.,2014).

impactsonstra4fica4on,heatcontent,icecover?

(e.g.,Gerbietal.2013,Gilory&Giddings,ongoing)

frontalstrength?

waves?

remoteinternalwaves?

ice/plumeinterac4ons?

under-iceestuaries?

mul4plesmallestuaries?

foodforthought…

(e.g.,Horner-Devine,MacDonald,Geyer,etc.)

(e.g.,Alfordetal.2012)

(e.g.,Deanetal.1994,Woodetal.2013)

(e.g.,Horganetal.2013)

(e.g.,Mazzinietal.2014,Wetzetal.2006)

mul4plesmallestuaries=1largeone!?

(e.g.,Gerbietal.2013,Gilory&Giddings,ongoing)

howtoparameterizeestuaries?

Geyer&MacCready2014,Figure6 mixingparameter

riverineFrou

de#

M 2 =CDUT

2

ωNoH2

Frf =UR

βgsocnH( )12

Geyer2010,Figure2.6

scaledriverdischarge

Scaled

ver4cal

salinity

differen

ce

UR

βgSOh( )1/2

ΔSSO

howtoparameterizeestuaries?

contacts:qiang.sun@uconn.edu&michael.whitney@uconn.edu

BoxModelApproachforImprovingtheRepresenta9onofRiverineFreshwaterInputsinClimateModels

QiangSun,MikeWhitney,FrankBryan,ParkerMacCready,&Yu-hengTseng

howtoaddestuariestoGCMs?EstuaryBoxModel(EBM)nowincludedinCommunityEarthSystemModel(CESM)version2!!

inputs outputs

VE

BoxModelApproachforImprovingtheRepresenta9onofRiverineFreshwaterInputsinClimateModels

QiangSun,MikeWhitney,FrankBryan,ParkerMacCready,&Yu-hengTsengcontacts:qiang.sun@uconn.edu&michael.whitney@uconn.edu

howtoaddestuariestoGCMs?

Introduc4on• mo4va4on

Estuarineinfluenceontheshelfandbeyond• buoyancyandheatdeliverytotheshelf• nutrientdeliveryandproduc4vity

Currentestuarineresearch&simpleparameteriza4ons• highlightsofcurrentestuarineresearch&theory• cantheseprocessesbebeVerrepresentedinglobalandregionalclimatemodels?MaybethroughQandS?

Influenceofachangingclimate• spa4aldistribu4onoffreshwaterinputs• 4mingoffreshwaterinput

ocean/estuarineinterac4ons

1.   Howwillchangingoceancondi9ons(sea-level,salinity,temperature,etc.)impactestuariesandtheirimportantecosystemservices?

2.   Howwillchangingwaterresources(natural&anthropogenicrainfallvariability,urbandrool,desalina4on,regula4ons,etc.)impactestuariesandcoastalwaters?

precipita4onevents

extremewaterlevels&condi4ons

changingclimate?

humanuses

IPCC5WGIIAR5Chapter3,Figure3-4,fromScheweetal.,2013

Percentagechangeofmeanannualstreamflowforaglobalmeantemperatureriseof2°Cabove1980–2010(2.7°Cabovepre-industrial).

mul4-modelmeanchangeacross5GCMsand11GHMs

spa4al&temporaldistribu4onofQ

projected sea level (ft) modeled number of hours above 99.99% historical water level (hrs)

imagecourtesyofDanCayan,SIO,NRCWestCoastSLRStudy2012,alsoseeCayanetal.2008andDasetal.2013

SanFrancisconearGoldenGate,NOAAobserva4onsandGFDLmodel(VermeerandRahmstorf2009)

sealevelriseandextremeevents

Howwillestuariesrespondtosealevelrise&extremeevents?•  morphologicalchanges(e.g.,Reeve&Karunarathna2009,Zedler2010)•  changesinsalt-waterintrusiondistance(4edintoQ)(e.g.,Cloernetal.2011)•  changesin4dalresponse(e.g.,Friedrichs)

thankyou!ques4ons?

sarahgid@ucsd.eduscripps.ucsd.edu/labs/sgiddings/

100km

GangesDelta,IndiahVp://www.redorbit.com/media/gallery/earth/1_23425bc3820cd972c628e8835f4eb102.jpg

oceancanstronglyimpacttheestuaries&viceversa

dynamicsinsideestuariesdeterminecoastalimpacts

choiceofQandS?

changingclimatewillinfluencethespa4alandtemporaldistribu4onoftheseimpacts