Post on 15-Oct-2020
Can the growth
Continue?
1
Analysing the Industry
Analysing the Consumer
Key Indicators
WesBank’s Performance
The Outlook
2
3
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nu
mb
er
of
Un
its
So
ld
2009 2010 2011 2012
4
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
5
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Entry
Middle
High End
6 0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
Ma
r-8
0
Ma
r-8
1
Ma
r-8
2
Ma
r-8
3
Ma
r-8
4
Ma
r-8
5
Ma
r-8
6
Ma
r-8
7
Ma
r-8
8
Ma
r-8
9
Ma
r-9
0
Ma
r-9
1
Ma
r-9
2
Ma
r-9
3
Ma
r-9
4
Ma
r-9
5
Ma
r-9
6
Ma
r-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Ma
r-11
Naa
ms
a
GD
P
GDP NAAMSA
7
-60.00
-50.00
-40.00
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
11
20
12
Naamsa Y/Y % change Y/Y % change in Prime
8
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep
-06
No
v-06
Jan
-07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-
07
Sep
-07
No
v-07
Jan
-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-
08
Sep
-08
No
v-08
Jan
-09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
No
v-09
Jan
-10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-10
Jan
-11
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-11
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Nu
mb
er A
cco
un
ts
Ap
pro
val
Rat
e
Total Apps # First Time Approved Apps % Final Approved Apps %
Start of tightening
towards end of
boom period
Introduction of
NCA/
new scorecards
Overhaul of all
scorecards for credit
crunch
Rec.
of all
Score
cards
Easing of
Credit Appetite
10
Pe
rce
nta
ge
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
New
Used
Used:New Ratio
11
Pe
rce
nta
ge
1.17
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
NEW
USED
Used:New Ratio
12
Pe
rce
nta
ge
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
FIXED
LINKED
13
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
Mo
nth
s
new
used
14
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
Used
New
Pe
rce
nta
ge
15
R 0.00
R 50,000.00
R 100,000.00
R 150,000.00
R 200,000.00
R 250,000.00
USED
NEW
16
17
Analysing the Industry
Analysing the Consumer
Key Indicators
WesBank’s Performance
The Outlook
18
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Mil
lio
n
Good Standing (#)
Impaired records (#)
19
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Mil
lio
n
Enquiries Consumers Seeking Credit (Mil)
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Pe
rce
nta
ge
R0 to R9 000 p.m.
R9 001 to R15 000 p.m.
R15 001 to R21 000 p.m
R21 001 to R30 000 p.m
R30 000 and higher
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Pe
rce
nta
ge
R0 to R9 000 p.m.
R9 001 to R15 000 p.m.
R15 001 to R21 000 p.m
R21 001 to R30 000 p.m
R30 000 and higher
22
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
93 119 98 95 59 55 46 50 53 40 22 31 32 28 24 20 17 19 20 9 23 22 24 21 26 45 34 38 34 37
236346
369371402477497
565
441424326338
200211260
201163135165173
133134 97 9556
108 80 68 78 63 70 81 113 86 80 77 56 63 43 68 50 68 76 93 82 98 72 67 5173 75 79 68 12
5
116
109
98
940
1 63
3 1 77
7
1 59
2 1 80
4 1 98
3
2 14
2
2 35
0
2 20
3
2 07
2
1 85
7
1 86
4
1 47
3
1 95
1
1 87
2 2 20
8
1 79
7
1 76
4
1 82
4
1 74
9
1 37
8
1 36
9
1 30
8
1 14
9
890
1 23
6
1 16
1
1 17
1
975
1 11
5
1 07
2
1 12
5
1 04
0
1 01
7
993
1 04
8
706
1 00
5
999
1 04
1
721
910 1 04
5
961
993
1 03
7
1 03
8
1 12
1
702
928
1 01
9
1 04
4
800
1 06
0
1 01
8
1 01
5
986
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Dec
-07
Jan
-08
Feb
-08
Mar
-08
Ap
r-08
May
-08
Jun
-08
Jul-
08
Au
g-0
8
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
No
v-08
Dec
-08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Dec
-09
Jan
-10
Feb
-10
Mar
-10
Ap
r-10
May
-10
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-10
Dec
-10
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
No
v-11
Dec
-11
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
Mar
-12
Ap
r-12
May
-12
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Au
g-1
2
Repossessions WesBank Motor (Excl TFS) Total number of repos performed in the month
0-6 month repos 7-12 month repos 13+ month repos
25
Analysing the Industry
Analysing the Consumer
Key Indicators
WesBank’s Performance
The Outlook
26
5.1 5.4
5.1 4.7 4.7
4.4 4.2 4.3
4.7
5.5 5.8
5.9 5.7
6.5 6.5
6.1 6.1
6.4
6.0 6.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sep '07 Dec '07 Apr '08 Jul '08 Oct '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Jul '09 Oct '09 Jan '10 Apr '10 Jul '10 Oct '10 Jan '11 Apr '11 Jul '11 Oct '11 Jan '12 Apr '12 Jul '12
Le
ve
l o
f A
ctivity
Very Active
Active
Not Active
Not Very Active
19%
81%
16%
84%
20%
80%
10%
90%
21%
79%
30%
70%
12%
88%
10%
90%
14%
86%
29%
71%
38%
62%
34%
66%
30%
70%
59%
41%
56%
44%
46%
54%
42%
58%
50%
50%
39%
61%
39%
61%
27
74
% 8
3%
82
%
88
%
70
%
50
%
45
%
61
%
29
%
34
%
29
% 36
%
33
%
28
%
29
%
24
%
23
%
25
%
27
%
32
%
25
%
23
%
13
%
6%
3%
4%
17
% 2
7%
28
%
15
%
58
%
56
%
56
%
56
%
57
%
63
%
62
%
67
%
68
%
68
%
61
%
53
%
66
%
67
%
9%
9%
13
%
8%
11
% 2
1%
27
%
23
%
13
%
10
%
15
%
8%
10
%
6%
9%
5%
10
%
6%
7%
9%
8%
6%
4%
2%
2%
1%
2%
2%
0%
1%
1%
2%
0%
5%
4%
5%
2%
4%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Jan '09
Apr '09
Jul '09
Oct '09
Jan '10
Apr '10
Jul '10
Oct '10
Jan '11 - now
Jan '11 -
next 3 mnths
Apr '11 - now
Apr '11 -
next 3 mnths
Jul '11 - now
Jul '11 -
next 3 mnths
Oct '11 - now
Oct '11 -
next 3 mnths
Jan '12 - now
Jan '12 -
next 3 mnths
Apr '12 - now
Apr '12 -
next 3 mnths
Jul '12 - now
Jul '12 -
next 3 mnths
WesBank Vehicle Market Activity Indicator July 2012
Which of the following vehicle markets would you describe as being the most active currently?
Which of the following vehicle markets do you anticipate will have more activity over the next 3 months?
Used Most Active New Most Active The Same No Answer
Would you describe the USED
VEHICLE market as being MORE or
28
Analysing the Industry
Analysing the Consumer
Key Indicators
WesBank’s Performance
The Outlook
29 29
WesBank & TFS
MFC / Nedbank
Standard Bank
ABSA Other Total
BA900 (2011)
R97.79b R67.77b R44.60b R51.7b R2.87b R264.75b
BA900 (2012)
R114.02b R71.84b R51.99b R54.07b R4.22b R296.16b
36.94
25.60
16.85 19.53
1.09
38.50
24.26
17.56 18.26
1.43
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
WesBank & TFS MFC/Nedbank Standard Bank ABSA Other
BA 900 Percentage Marketshare ‘11 vs ‘12
2011
2012
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
WesBank
Standard Bank
ABSA
Nedbank/MFC
Cash
TFS
31
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
WesBank
Standard Bank
ABSA
NedBank/MFC
Cash
TFS
32
FSR *STB *NED *ABSA
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000 Normalised earnings
Including
loans
Includes purchase of
Imperial book (MFC)
YOY Growth 58% 26% 39% 24%
5Y CAGR
22%
11%
60% (Inorganic growth)
(8%)
R' m
illio
n
33
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PBT Normalised PBT (Excl Extraordinaries)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
WESBANK TOTAL ARREARS - % NUMBER TO BOOK
1+
2+
3+
6+
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
WesBank Net Promoter Score
International Benchmark
36
37
Analysing the Industry
Analysing the Consumer
Key Indicators
International Mobility Study
WesBank’s Performance
The Outlook
38
Naamsa
2011
WesBank
Total Market
Prediction
2012
Revised
Prediction
Passenger 399 200 424 152 6% 437 500 9%
LCV 152 534 160 161 5% 160 000 5%
Commercial
Vehicles 26 248 28 347 8% 27 500 5%
Total Industry 577 981 612 660 6% 625 000 8%
Historical low interest rates
Below CPI car price increases
Replacement cycle reducing
Extensive Dealer & OEM
incentives programmes
•Robust demand for vehicle finance continues
•Replacement cycle continuing to decrease
•New vehicle price increases to continue below National CPI
•Customers continue to move from Used to Entry Level New
•High end of the market still buoyant
•Minimal job losses for 2012, job creation more likely
•LSM 7-10 customers still in reasonable shape
•Interest rates to remain within narrow band for the foreseeable future
•Dealer Confidence remains positive
• Modest growth in vehicle sales off a high base
•Risks mainly external
•Growth opportunities for WesBank moderating but definitely not in ‘Ex’
category