Calyon Conference Slides

Post on 29-Nov-2014

963 views 0 download

description

 

Transcript of Calyon Conference Slides

1

Beverly GouletBeverly GouletVice President of Corporate Development and TreasurerVice President of Corporate Development and Treasurer

2

Safe HarborSafe Harbor• Please note that many of our statements, including

any comments on matters related to our outlook for revenue and earnings, cost estimates, and forecasts of capacity, traffic, load factor, fuel costs and other matters will constitute forward-looking statements. These matters are subject to a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations. These factors include domestic and international economic conditions, commodity prices, general competitive factors including, but not limited to, government regulations, uncertainty in domestic or international operations, acts of war or terrorism, our ability to access the capital markets and changes in the Company's business strategy, any of which could affect our actual results.

• Please note that many of our statements, including any comments on matters related to our outlook for revenue and earnings, cost estimates, and forecasts of capacity, traffic, load factor, fuel costs and other matters will constitute forward-looking statements. These matters are subject to a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ from our expectations. These factors include domestic and international economic conditions, commodity prices, general competitive factors including, but not limited to, government regulations, uncertainty in domestic or international operations, acts of war or terrorism, our ability to access the capital markets and changes in the Company's business strategy, any of which could affect our actual results.

3

Safe Harbor (cont.)Safe Harbor (cont.)• Additional information concerning these and other

factors is contained in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including but not limited to our Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2007.

• Additionally, please refer to the slide presentation accompanying today’s webcast at www.aa.com for reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measurement we may discuss to what we think is the most appropriate GAAP measurement.

• Additional information concerning these and other factors is contained in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including but not limited to our Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2007.

• Additionally, please refer to the slide presentation accompanying today’s webcast at www.aa.com for reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measurement we may discuss to what we think is the most appropriate GAAP measurement.

4

5

Oil PriceOil Price

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

1/2007 3/2007 5/2007 7/2007 9/200711/20071/2008 3/2008 5/2008 7/2008 9/2008

$ / B

arre

l

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

1/2007 3/2007 5/2007 7/2007 9/200711/20071/2008 3/2008 5/2008 7/2008 9/2008

$ / B

arre

l

1/ WTI Spot Prices1/ WTI Spot Prices

1/3/07 - $58.321/3/07 - $58.32

9/16/08 - $91.159/16/08 - $91.15

1/1/

6

Crack SpreadCrack Spread

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

8/2005 12/2005 4/2006 8/2006 12/2006 4/2007 8/2007 12/2007 4/2008 8/2008

$ / B

arre

l

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

8/2005 12/2005 4/2006 8/2006 12/2006 4/2007 8/2007 12/2007 4/2008 8/2008

$ / B

arre

l

1/ Spread between WTI Spot Prices & US Gulf Coast Jet1/ Spread between WTI Spot Prices & US Gulf Coast Jet

10/5/05 - $67.62 10/5/05 - $67.62 9/16/08 - $71.909/16/08 - $71.90

1/1/

7

8

2Q08 Results2Q08 Results

Net Earnings (Ex-Special Items 1/)

-$284 million

Fuel Price Impact on Expenses 2/

$840 million

Net Earnings (Ex-Special Items 1/)

-$284 million

Fuel Price Impact on Expenses 2/

$840 million

1/ Exlcudes $1.1 billion in special charges related to aircraft impairment and severance costs2/ Increase in expense due to year over year change in fuel price1/ Exlcudes $1.1 billion in special charges related to aircraft impairment and severance costs2/ Increase in expense due to year over year change in fuel price

9

10

Fuel Increases Offset Cost ReductionsFuel Increases Offset Cost Reductions

2002-2007 Actuals; 2008 Forecast2002-2007 Actuals; 2008 Forecast

Cost Reductions2002 - 2008E

$6.0B

Cost Reductions2002 - 2008E

$6.0B

11

Fuel HedgingFuel Hedging

• 3Q08– 39% hedged at $3.11/gal

• FY08– 37% hedged at $2.77/gal

• 3Q08– 39% hedged at $3.11/gal

• FY08– 37% hedged at $2.77/gal

Per Eagle Eye 8-K: Sep 18, 2008Per Eagle Eye 8-K: Sep 18, 2008

12

Fuel Increases Offset Cost ReductionsFuel Increases Offset Cost Reductions

Fuel Increases2002 - 2008E

$6.9B

Fuel Increases2002 - 2008E

$6.9B

2002-2007 Actuals; 2008 Forecast2002-2007 Actuals; 2008 Forecast

Cost Reductions2002 - 2008E

$6.0B

Cost Reductions2002 - 2008E

$6.0B

13

14

New and Modified FeesNew and Modified Fees

1st Checked Bag Fee

2nd Checked Bag Fee

Domestic Change Fee

Confirmed Flight Charge

Int’l Change Fee

Res Service Fee

Liquor and Food for Sale

1st Checked Bag Fee

2nd Checked Bag Fee

Domestic Change Fee

Confirmed Flight Charge

Int’l Change Fee

Res Service Fee

Liquor and Food for Sale

Several Several Hundreds of Hundreds of Millions of Millions of

DollarsDollars

15

16

4Q Y-O-Y Scheduled Domestic Mainline Capacity

4Q Y-O-Y Scheduled Domestic Mainline Capacity

Announcement Date

4Q Y-O-Y Domestic Mainline Capacity

1/16/08 (0.2%)

4/16/08 (4.6%)

5/21/08 (11-12%)

17

Aircraft RetirementsAircraft Retirements

30 MD-80

10 A300

37 Regional Jets 1/

26 Saabs

103 Total Aircraft

30 MD-80

10 A300

37 Regional Jets 1/

26 Saabs

103 Total Aircraft

1/ 8 of the 37 regional jet aircraft are non-owned and operated under capacity purchase arrangements1/ 8 of the 37 regional jet aircraft are non-owned and operated under capacity purchase arrangements

18

19

Fleet ReplacementFleet Replacement

20

21

18.917.5 17.1 16.3

13.6

11.010.1

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.020.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2Q08

$ Bi

llion

18.917.5 17.1 16.3

13.6

11.010.1

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.020.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2Q08

$ Bi

llion

Net DebtNet Debt

>$8B>$8B

22

23

Pension FundingPension Funding

2003

76%

2003

76%

2007

96%

2007

96%

24

25

AlliancesAlliances

Current and proposed transatlantic antitrust immunity Current transatlantic antitrust immunity

Proposed transatlantic antitrust immunity

* Announced new alliance members

*

**

*

* *

*

*

*

26

27

Beverly GouletBeverly GouletVice President of Corporate Development and TreasurerVice President of Corporate Development and Treasurer