Calculating the future

Value analysis predicts program progress!

An Excell tool for mid sized programs – no more runaways!

Programs realizestrategicchange

They are lengthy, defined in broad terms, changing during execution

Programs are in runaway danger

• McKinsey: Only 30 percent of change programs succeed

• The Economist, a 2004 survey: 57% of the companies had been unsuccessful in executing on strategic initiatives over the previous three years.

Mid sized programs lack adequate control

The control system relies on project managers estimates and actual costs

No facts, no trends, no coherence

No facts: driving forward looking back

Progress is based on the past, estimates are based on opinions

Real progress is unknown

No trends: Finding the way one inch before your feet

Most control systems show you data at a specific time,

not time based trends

No coherence: Projects and business will interfere

A program is not just a set of independent projects, each on their way

It is the coherence that needs to be managed

Been there, did the tour, got the T-shirt. Lets share!

If you manage by facts, have trend-reporting, and make coherence visible

You can control a mid-sized program

Program Future Calculator

We have created a free Excel spreadsheet for medium sized programs, for a program manager that needs to

create his own control, in a cost oriented environment

Example: Projects in a mid sized program

The usual suspects: multiple projects, startdates, budgets

See next sheet for some more usual data

demoPROJECT ID PROJECT NAME STARTDATE PLANNED

FINISH DATE

BUDGETTED

COSTS

Integral

BUDGETTED

COSTS Time

Based

BUDGETTED

COSTS Cap

Inv

Project Totals € 16,948 € 11,750 € 5,198

7 Example, Finished on time in budget 2-jan-12 20-jun-12 € 1,215 € 810 € 405

31 Example, finished too late over budget 11-feb-12 21-mei-12 € 1,380 € 920 € 460

22 Example, cap invest overspent 22-mrt-12 7-nov-12 € 1,620 € 1,080 € 540

34 Example, too late on budget 1-apr-12 7-okt-12 € 1,418 € 945 € 473

56 Example, on time over budget 1-apr-12 8-sep-12 € 1,125 € 750 € 375

78 Example, premature close 11-mei-12 8-okt-12 € 1,013 € 675 € 338

65 Example, planned over the year 20-jun-12 25-feb-13 € 1,823 € 1,215 € 608

32 Example, running late over the year 21-mei-12 18-okt-12 € 1,088 € 725 € 363

23 Example, no Cap Inv 30-jun-12 27-nov-12 € 675 € 675 € -

5757 Example, capital investment underspent 22-mrt-12 7-nov-12 € 2,900 € 2,160 € 740

543 Future project 1 1-sep-12 10-dec-12 € 810 € 540 € 270

876 Future project 2 15-nov-12 23-feb-13 € 870 € 580 € 290

392923 Late project 1-mrt-12 29-jul-12 € 1,013 € 675 € 338

Example contd.: Actuals on these projects

Nothing new so far, just a spreadsheetBut now we start the magic

Magic 1: % ready

% ready, as agreed upon up front, based on factsThis allows Value Analysis based predictions

Magic 2: trends

Excel at its best: time based graphs So patterns are visible, based on actuals and Value Analysis

Magic 3: Coherence

Seeing where you are and where you are headedTo avoid collisions with others

Program control:Facts, trends, coherence

Download this spreadsheet at www.dicuore.nl

Or at LinkedIn company page diCuoreThe Program Future Calculator

Deliberately left blank

Some more screenshots of the Program Future Calculator

In one fgure: the budget, actuals and a prognosis

Project portfolio

Cash flowneed of the project portfolio

Addaptive Program Budget

Because budget cuts and creative funding exist

Program Budget

Source

TOTAL

PROGRAM

BUDGET

TOTAL PROGRAM

BUDGET THIS YEAR

TOTAL PROGRAM

BUDGET NEXT YEAR

TOTAL PROGRAM

BUDGET

€ 17,230 € 10,710 € 6,520

1 BUDGT SOURCE 1 19,350€ 12,000€ 7,350€

2 BUDGET SOURCE 2 630€ 210€ 420€

3 BUDGET SOURCE 3 300€ 300€ -€

4 BUDGET CUT 1 (1,500)€ (1,500)€ -€

5 BUDGET CUT 2 (300)€ (300)€ -€

6 Budget cut next year (1,250)€ -€ (1,250)€

Independent Program vs Projects Portfolio budget

Because projects appear out of nowhere to enter your program

Clear overview of status

Because Steering Committees are pressed for time

Prognoses

To control in stead of to react andrepair

Facts, trends and coherence:Program Future Calculator