Transcript of Building the Weather to Climate Bridge Across Jamaica: Implications for Future Re-Engineering
- 1. Building the Weather to Climate Bridge Across Jamaica:
implications for future re-engineering. Teddy Allen Post-Doctoral
Scientist The International Research Institute for Climate and
Society tallen@iri.columbia.edu
- 2. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE ? 7 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 12
+ 7 + 9 + 8 + 7 + 15 + 7 + 7 + 8 + 13 + 7 7 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 12 + 7 +
9 + 8 + 7 + 15 + 7 + 7 + 8 + 13 + 7 = 8.5 klima (Ancient Greek) =
slope, terrestial latitude
- 3. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Jamaican climate (rainfall)
Climate knowledge is important: Supports cropping calendars Helps
to determine specific crops to plant Hurricane awareness
- 4. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE WEATHER ? The current state
of the atmosphere
- 5. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Jamaican weather (rainfall)
What causes rainfall in Jamaica during the early rain season?
IMPORTANCE OF EARLY RAIN SEASON: cessation of dry season first
stage of seasonal agriculture provides economic prosperity
conditions seasonal water levels offsets possible drought What
causes it? Can we predict it?
- 6. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Rethinking Jamaican rainfall
early rain season July Upper level westerly winds April early rain
season Atmospheric water vapor Panama Low during the early rain
season
- 7. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE May 20, 2011 2011 hr May
20,2011 accumulation of weather events DAILY MONTHLY
- 8. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE 2012 satellite based rainfall
(early rain season) 2012 satellite based accumultaed rainfall
(early rain season)
- 9. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
- 10. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Jamaican weather to climate
bridge: the Caribbean rain-belt Caribbean Rain Belt (Car-belt) ( an
average of all of the ERS rainfall accumulations from 1999-2014 )
Daily rainfall seasonal totals average of seasonal totals
climatological rain-belt
- 11. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Change and the
Caribbean Rain-Belt end of century projections Sea Surface
TemperatureSurface Air Temperature Rainfall warmer air warmer sea
surface more available moisture DRIER??? We can expect a change in
circulation that weakens the uplift environment.
- 12. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE Seasonal Changes in
Projected Rainfall Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec
- 13. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE How will the climatological
bi-modal rainfall pattern and the Caribbean rain-belt change in
time? WHATWEEXPECTPOSSIBLFUTURE Farmers and water resource managers
may need to adapt to fewer weather events during the wet
season.
- 14. CLIMATE WEATHER CLIMATE CHANGE CONCLUSIONS Current late
spring rainfall climate results from expected weather events caused
by a combination of upper level uplift dynamics and lower level
moisture steered by the Panama Low The long term average of these
weather events produces the Caribbean Rain- Belt End of century
projected rainfall suggests about 20% reduction in annual rainfall
totals with much greater reduction during the summer months A shift
in expectation of weather events must occur to prepare for possible
climate change scenarios Fruitful collaboration and discussions
with: UWI, Jamaican Meteorological Service, Brian Mapes, IRI, CIMH,
CaribSave