brave new worldmike ryan, futurist

fusion futures limited @mikemanchester

what do I do?

enable clients to understand their future and make betterdecisions enabling them todrive forwards with confidence.

the menu today

• societal drivers

• technology drivers

•work and future jobs

societal drivers

no more secrets

spying§

spying

hacking

world starting to close up

1 in 113 of the global population displaced*

*UN HCR report 2015

technology drivers

more and more data

Since 2010, 5 companies are engaged in a tech race spending billions on R&D each year.

the technology race 2010-

1961-1969

the technology race 2010-

Space Race: 1961 - 1969: $40 billion

Tech Race 2010 - 2015: $100 billion a year

Saudi Arabia’s $ 2 trillion oil fund diversifying

Maintenence

digital trade mirrors physical trade

five key tech drivers going to change life by 2030

1. artificial intelligence

voice the new interface

2. augmented reality

connected wearable devicesdigital contact lenses available by 2020

3. nano level innovation

3D printing mass disruption

super materials4. smart materials

graphene as important as steel

graphene light bulb

5. robotics and ultra automation

work and future jobs

typesetter

bone crusher

typist

lift operatorice cutter

cobbler

fax operator

quartermaster

travel agent

telegraph operator

canal operator switchboard operator

map maker

road sweeper

redundant jobs since 1900

call centre operators

reporters

locksmithsmany retail workers

bank counter staff

tour guideszoologists

butchers

cleaners

postmenmany soldiers

builders

car assemblers

power workers

librarians

at risk jobs by 2030

railway staff

taxi drivers

delivery drivers

pilots

insurance staff

traffic police / wardens

GPs

driving instructors

many admin staff

a smart machine age: machines will compete for work with humans

effect on logistics leaving empty warehouses

scenario building: driverless cars and the future future scenarios: driverless cars

2016 -2020

stage 1: a new feature gets introduced - autopilot

stage 2: luxury cars sold on driverless freedom

2020-2025

2025 onwards

stage 3: end of steering wheels and personal car ownership

nearly all private cars are used just 5% of the time

the facts

2030s could the UK roads be like Cuba?

good news

accidents will reduce to 1:10,000 and 90% less casualties

UK accidents cost£34.8 billion a year*

*2015 Dept/ Transport Figure

good news

or is this a traffic intersection

in an autonomous

vehicle future?

14.6% of UK employment inthe motor industry and driving jobs*

*ONS sector breakdown 2015

342,000 work in the car insurance industry in the UK.*nearly as many work in thecar finance market as well.

bad news

a £64 billion industry completely altered in a decade

professional freelancers

world of freelancers the gig economy

low skilled roles replaced by automation and machines

highly skilled roles replaced by AI and machine learning

the future will be a harder place to find work

for 4 jobs lost now only 1 will be createdin the future

WEF, Davos forecast, 2016

the long tail give niche opportunity

low competition

high competition

highautomation

human intensivebusiness

the long tail will still provide opportunity for human workers

live, work and eat local: communities in cities

human based customer service will need to be perfect

be careful of upsetting customers who are social reviewers

what will workin the future?

location, location, location

how could you engage with the sharing economy?

find the right new partners

ying when other businesses yang

use automation to help not hinder the customer

thank you please stay in touch

mike ryan, futurist fusion futures

mikemanchester

mike@idaho.uk.net