Post on 02-Sep-2019
Brain Drain or Brain Gain?
Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany
Niederrhein Institute for Regional and Structural Research (NIERS)Niederrhein Institute for Regional and Structural Research (NIERS)
Angelika Jaeger Fabian KreutzerAngelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer
Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany
1. Introduction1. Introduction
2. Graduate Migration Patterns and Determinants
3. Discussion and Conclusion
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer
1. Introduction
Academic literature tells us:
• Human capital is a key indicator of regional economic and innovation performance
Patterns of regional “brain flows” are key determinants for the development of the
human capital level
• Migration is a well-analyzed research topic on a macro level
Additional information can be gained with Additional information can be gained with
graduate migration analysis on a small-scale regional level
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer
1. Introduction
Study Region: Central Lower Rhine Area (CLRA)y g ( )
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian KreutzerFigure 1: adapted from IHK Mittlerer Niederrhein, 2012
1. Introduction
What are central characteristics of the Central Lower Rhine Area (CLRA)?( )
• Old Industrial region, structural changes
• Rather peripherical, close to the border
• On the rim of a congested urban area with several prospering metropolises pull factor!
The CLRA faces diverse challengesThe CLRA faces diverse challenges
• Economic problems, above-average unemployment
• High municipal debts• High municipal debts
• Below-average percentage of university graduates employed
• 38% of regional companies claim a shortage of skilled labour138% of regional companies claim a shortage of skilled labour
A university is a vital chance for the region!
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian KreutzerSource: Analysis of NIERS and 1 Chamber of Commerce and Industry 2012, p.1
Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany
1. Introduction1. Introduction
2. Graduate Migration Patterns and Determinants
3. Discussion and Conclusion
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer
2. Graduate Migration Patterns and DeterminantsNR UAS Graduate Survey 2012 N = 1769 (max 2 years after grad )
N Mi ti Mi ti
NR UAS Graduate Survey 2012, N = 1769 (max. 2 years after grad.)
No Migration
after graduation
Migration
after graduation∑
Origin inCLRA
Non Migrants15.0 %
Late Migrants15.5 %
30.5 %
Origin in anyth i
University Stayers11 5 %
Repeat Migrants58 0 %
69.5 %other region 11.5 % 58.0 % %
∑ 26 5 % 73 5 % 100∑ 26.5 % 73.5 % 100
Brainflow Balance – 4.0 %
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Official Graduate Survey 2012, N = 1769; CLRA = Central Lower Rhine Area
2. Graduate Migration Patterns and Determinants
Descriptive Analysis: Interesting results concerning migration determinants:p y g g g
• Migration propensity differs considering different fields of study
• A temporary stay abroad: does not alter frequency of graduate migration,
but generally raises the migration distance
D ti f J b S ki G d t h t i th i fi d j b f t• Duration of Job Seeking: Graduates, who stay in the region, find jobs faster
• Starting salary: A high starting salary seems to act as pull factor to other regions
• Form of job contract: below average migration propensity for job contracts of lower• Form of job contract: below-average migration propensity for job contracts of lower
attractiveness
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer
2. Graduate Migration Motives
Only two important migration motives:y p g
80%66%
40%
60%62%
66%
46% 42%
Starting first job in Central Lower Rhine Area (CLRA)
Migration to other Areas
20%
40%
14%5% 5% 4%
16%9%7%
1%8% 12%
6%
26%
0%
elated
tives
amily‐
otvies
udies /
gram
Cost of
ng eatio
n men
iti
Image
RA
bility/
ucture
easons
4%1%
Job‐re
mot
Person
al/ fa
related mo
Furthe
r stu
PHD prog
CLRA
Clivin
CLRA
Recre
Facilities/Am
es
CLRA
I
CLR
Accessib
Infrastru
Other re
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Official Graduate Survey 2012, N = 1769
P F C F
2. Graduate Migration Determinants and MotivesEconometric ApproachEconometric Approach
• Migration: dummy, 1 = graduate starts professional life in CLRA• RegOrigin: dummy, 1 = university entrance diploma in CLRA• University Entrance: form of university entrance diploma• University Entrance: form of university entrance diploma• Apprenticeship, Temporary stay abroad : dummy, 1 = yes / 0 = no• Gender: dummy, 1 = female• Duration of Job seeking in months• Duration of Job seeking in months• Industry, retail and SME: dummy, 1 = graduate started professional life in company
operating in industrial branches, in retail industry, respectively as SME• SelfEmployed: dummy 1 = graduate is self employed• SelfEmployed: dummy, 1 = graduate is self-employed• Personal Reasons and Job Reasons: dummy, 1 = graduate identified migration motive• Textile and Economics: dummies, field of study (1 = graduate of corresponding faculty)
ERSA 2012 Congress| 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer
2. Graduate Migration Determinants and MotivesEconometric ApproachEconometric ApproachRegression results for binomial model with random error termDependent variable: Migration, 1 = Graduate starting professional life in CLRA*** f
Coeff. Std. Err. P> |z|Regional origin*** 0.79 0,19 0,000University Entrance diploma 0 33 0 58 0 574
*** denotes significance at the 0.01 level
University Entrance diploma 0,33 0,58 0,574Apprenticeship ‐0,02 0,18 0,906Gender: Female ‐0,19 0,20 0,453Temporary Stay Abroad 0,29 0,28 0,242Job‐Seeking ‐0,05 0,03 0,102Industry ‐0,20 0,21 0,327Retail Market 0,54 0,33 0,106SME 0 04 0 20 0 830SME ‐0,04 0,20 0,830Self‐Employed 0,00 0,30 0,998Personal & Family‐Related Reasons*** 1,39 0,19 0,000Job‐Related Reasons*** 0,73 0,20 0,000Faculty Textile & Clothing Management 0,20 0,27 0,466Faculty Business Administration & Economics 0,07 0,20 0,710cons ‐2,32 0,33 0,000
Database: Online survey of alumni network 2012, N = 475
Participants: 369, alumni network survey Prob> chi2 =0,000
LR chi2 (14)= 93,76 Pseudo R2= 0,2637
2. Graduate Migration Determinants and Motives
Results of Empirical Analysis:p y
1. The university catchment area is very regionally oriented
2. NR UAS exhibits a negative brainflow-balance
3. The propensity of migration is much higher for external students
4. Two important migration motives: job-related and family-related/personal reasons
5. Minor or no significance in the migration decision process: graduate‘s international g g p g
experience, self-employment, soft locational factors of the university region
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer
Brain Drain or Brain Gain? Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Graduate Migration in Old Industrial Regions –Analysis of the Central Lower Rhine Area, Germany
1. Introduction1. Introduction
2. Graduate Migration Patterns and Determinants
3. Discussion and Conclusion
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer
3. Discussion
The three roles of HEI:
1. HEI as source of academic knowledge
2. HEI as provider of academic education
3. HEI as regional system builder
Especially important in old industrial regions facing economic challenges
Concerning graduation migration policy, how can NR UAS act asregional system builder?regional system builder?
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian KreutzerSource: Caniëls / von den Bosch 2010, p. 274
3. Discussion
1. The university can embrace and support a role as „employment broker“:y pp „ p y
35%How did you find your first job after graduation?
25%
30% 34,5%
39%: Connection via university / studies
10%
15%
20%
13,3% 11,6% 10,4%
3 6%
18,0%
12,2%
0%
5%
nt
ies
hip sis
y ors
ent
nal
cts ve
on er
für
3,6%1,7%
Part‐tim
eEm
ploymen
during
studi
Internsh
Fina
l The
s
Contact b
yecturing
tuto
Job
advertisem
e
Person
Contac
Speculati
App
licatio
Jobcen
te(Agentur f
Arbeit)
ERSA 2012 Congress| 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Official survey of graduates 2012, N = 1769
le a
3. Discussion
2. The university can improve graduates‘ knowledge about possible local employersy p g g p p y
Knowledge of local economy and possible future employers
Complete knowledge 2 3 4 No knowledge Total
I would have stayed in the CLRA given a better job offer
Yes 14 128 159 138 62 501
No 10 37 89 85 60 281
Migrating graduates 24 165 248 223 122 782
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Official survey of graduates 2012
3. Discussion
3. The university needs to underline its importance for local companies
Local companies evaluate NR UAS as good, but unimportant location factor concerning„labour and qualification“
1,5
Workforce Qualification Wages
,
1,7
1,9Availability of Labour
General Schools
Vocational SchoolsExternal training
opportunitiesCooperation
2,1
2,3
tanc
e
General Schools
NR UAS as HEI
Cooperation schools / firms
Child Care
Elderly Care Cpr. Health-Management
2,5
2,7
Impo
rt y Management2,9
1,51,71,92,12,32,52,72,9
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian KreutzerERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian KreutzerSource: Survey of Chamber of Commerce and Industry, 2012; scale from 1 (highest value) to 5 (lowest)
Quality
3. Conclusion
For old industrial regions facing economic problems…g g p
… a HEI is a vital chance for the development of human capital
… high importance of graduates who can be attracted to the region in the long run
… pull-factor of well-performing regions has to be faced
dditi l d t h t b ff d additional advantages have to be offered
regionally originated students are easier „to keep“ in the region
To improve the level of regional human capital, a HEI can…
embrace and support a role as employment broker“… embrace and support a role as „employment broker ,
… improve graduates‘ knowledge about possible local employers
needs to underline its importance for local companies… needs to underline its importance for local companies
Thank you for your attention!
Literature
Caniëls, M. / van den Bosch, H.: The role of Higher Education Institutions in building regional , , g g ginnovation systems. In: Papers in Regional Science, Vol. 90 No. 2, June 2011.
Faggian, A. / McCann, P.: Human Capital and Regional Development. In: Capello, R. / Nijkamp, P.: Handbook of Regional Growth and Development Theories, Cheltenham. S. 131-151, 2008.
Leisering, B. / Rolff, K.: Was bindet junge Akademiker an Arbeitsplätze in der Region? Ergebnisse einer Online-Umfrage bei MINT-Studierenden in NRW. In: Institut für Arbeit
d T h ik IAT W fäli h H h h l G l ki h F h Ak ll 03/2012und Technik IAT, Westfälische Hochschule Gelsenkirchen, Forschung Aktuell, 03/2012.Industrie- und Handelskammer Düsseldorf und Mittlerer Niederrhein: Konjunktur-
Sonderthema: Fachkräftemangel in der Region Düsseldorf / Mittlerer Niederrhein –Jahresbeginn 2012 Abruf am 27 April 2012 auf http://krefeld ihk de/media/upload/ihk/Jahresbeginn 2012. Abruf am 27. April 2012, auf http://krefeld.ihk.de/media/upload/ihk/ imap/20120201/fachkraeftemangel_jb2012_imap.pdf
Industrie- und Handelskammer Mittlerer Niederrhein: Wachstumsbremse Fachkräftemangel eine Analyse des Arbeitsmarktes Mittlerer Niederrhein IHK Schriftenreihe Nr– eine Analyse des Arbeitsmarktes Mittlerer Niederrhein. IHK Schriftenreihe, Nr.
127/2010.
10. Regionalökonomisches Forum | 08. Mai 2012 | Fachkräftemangel am Niederrhein?!
Appendix – Additional Information
Analysis based on three graduate surveys in 2012Analysis based on three graduate surveys in 2012
1. Official university graduate survey
Online, Conducted in a biannual interval rythm, N=1700
2. Survey of Alumni networks
Online questionnaire, N=475
3. Survey of students in final semester
Possibility to compare migration plans with actual migration patterns, N = 225
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer
2. Graduate Migration Patterns and DeterminantsOnline Survey of Alumni Network N = 475 (no time limit after grad )Online Survey of Alumni Network, N = 475 (no time limit after grad.)
N Mi ti Mi tiNo Migration
after graduation
Migration
after graduation∑
Origin inCLRA
Non Migrants12.4 %
Late Migrants30.5 %
42.9 %
Origin in anyth i
University Stayers6 2 %
Repeat Migrants50 9 %
57.1 %other region 6.2 % 50.9 % %
∑ 18 6 % 81 4 % 100∑ 18.6 % 81.4 % 100
Brainflow Balance – 24.3 %
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Online survey of alumni network 2012, N = 475
Appendix – Additional Information
International Experience…Migration probability after a temporary
stay abroad during the studiesp
• has no influence on migration probability 80%
90%100%
27,88%
6,90% 4,85%
stay abroad during the studies
• but raises the distancerange of migrating 50%
60%70%
46 36%
36,21%27,88%
graduates
10%20%30%40%
20 7% 20 9%
36,21%46,36%
0%10%
Temporary Stay Abroad during studies
No Temporary Stay Abroad
20,7% 20,9%
during studies (>4Months)
Abroad
Central Lower Rhine Area Other parts of NRW
Other parts of Germany Europe
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Survey of alumni network 2012, N = 475
p y p
Appendix – Additional Information
Graduates accept contracts of lower attractiveness to remain in the region
100%Migration probability considering characteristics of the job contract
60%
80%
20%
40%
26 4% 24 9%32,5%
24 5%
43,0%
0%Total Permanent
employment Fixed‐term employment
Full‐time job Part‐time job
26,4% 24,9%,
24,5%
contract contract
Central Lower Rhine Area Within rest of NRW Within rest of NRWWithin rest of Europe Woldwide
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Official Graduate Survey 2012, N = 1769
Appendix – Additional Information
High Starting Salaries are a Pull Factor
120%
Migration Probability considering the starting salary of graduates
80%
100%
40%
60%
20%
%
30,0% 28,4% 30,2% 25,1% 20,0%8,6%
0%
0‐1000 € 1001‐2000 € 2001‐3000€ 3001‐4000€ 4001‐5000€ 5001‐6000€
Central Lower Rhine Area Within rest of NRW Within rest of NRW Within rest of Europe Worldwide
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, database: Official Graduate Survey 2012, N = 1769
Appendix – Additional Information
Attractiveness of economic regions in North‐Rhine‐Westphalia based on a survey ofMINT graduates
0,2
0,3
0,4
ivitä
t
MINT graduates
0
0,1
0,2
0,02
0,350,22 0,24
0,15
t / A
ttrak
ti
‐0,3
‐0,2
‐0,1 ‐0,06‐0,35 ‐0,31 ‐0,26
utze
nwer
t
‐0,4Nu
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer
1. Introduction
Universities induce expenditure effects, knowledge spillovers, produce human capital
Socio Cultural Impacts
p , g p , p pTo support the University Region Importance of local focus
Human CapitalKnowledged
Socio‐Cultural Impacts
Quality ofLocation
R&D Transfer
andTechnology Transfer
Region
Higher Education
Spin Offs
Expenditure EffectsHi h Ed ti I tit ti
RegionInstitution
•Higher Education Institution• Students• Staff
ERSA 2012 Congress | 24th August 2012 | Angelika Jaeger, Fabian Kreutzer© NIERS, Ruhr-University Bochum