Managing Complex Projects

Beth-Anne Schuelke-Leech, PEng, MBA, PhD

Assistant Professor, Ohio State University

November 13, 2015

Agenda

• Complex Systems and Projects

• Risk, uncertainty, and complexity

• Project goals and success

• Leadership and managing

• Change

• Lessons

What is a Complex System? • Many interconnected and interdependent

components

• Many interactions

• Unexpected reactions (unpredictable)

• Need to take a holistic view of the system

http://www.aston.ac.uk/eas/research/groups/ncrg/

Complex Systems • Where are you looking?

www.flickr.com

Thank you to Jeremie Averous, Project Value Delivery

• You need to be looking for the train

www.flickr.com

Complex Systems

Complex Systems • Can’t do this if you are micro-managing

www.flickr.com

General Stanley McCrystal http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/apr/29/mcchrystal-afghanistan-powerpoint-slide

What is a Complex Project?

Three Gorges Dam, http://www.cypc.com.cn/

Apollo 13 accident, www.nasa.gov

Dulles Main Terminal, archive.mwaa.com

New Well in Africa, https://breadandwaterforafrica.wordpress.com

Complex Problems and Projects

• Climate change

– When? Effects? Strategies to mitigate?

• Energy systems

• Demographic shifts to older population – pensions; working longer; increasing health issues

• Increasing income inequality and social unrest

• Cybersecurity

• Greater integration of technologies

• Often no previous experience

(Relatively) Simple Projects

• Straight-forward

• Can identify the pathway

http://www.pmknowledgecenter.com/dynamic_scheduling/baseline/critical-path-or-critical-chain-difference-caused-resources

Complex Projects

• Not just about size

• Many interdependent components and tasks

• Many nodes and interconnections

• Embedded in social, political, cultural systems

Martin Grandjean

New Well in Africa, https://breadandwaterforafrica.wordpress.com

Complex Projects

• Many uncertainties and risks

• More brittle, less resilience

• More chances of failure

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/following-ocean-swirls

What is project failure?

• Sometimes defined as failing to deliver project:

– On time

– On budget

• Can also mean:

– Failure to meet project goals and expectations

– Failure of project team

– Failure in longer-term

Ciudad Airport in Spain

• Success or Failure?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33578949

Ciudad Airport in Spain • Cost €1.1 Billion to build

• Private airport

• Operated for just 3 years

• Poor plan - (optimistic) expectations were never realized

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33578949

Complexity and Uncertainty • Connections and Interdependencies create

uncertainties and rigidity

• Resilience comes from avoiding rigidity

• Need flexible, adaptive, dynamic system

http://luelstudio.com/type-of-repairs/china-repair/

Complexity and Uncertainty • Connections and Interdependencies create

uncertainties and rigidity

• Resilience comes from avoiding rigidity

• Need flexible, adaptive, dynamic system

• Hard to build

• But possible

http://luelstudio.com/type-of-repairs/china-repair/

Risk and Uncertainty

• Managing the known and unknown risks

• Known Risks = Probability x Consequences

– How do you know the probability?

– How do you know the consequences?

– How do you mitigate?

• Unknown

– Contingencies and Recovery

– Building resilient system

www.peeryfoundation.org

Risk and Uncertainty

• Risk often about ambiguous knowledge and information

– don’t know something that you would like to or need to

– How do you get this information or knowledge?

– What if you can’t get this?

• Uncertainty is not knowing

– Best estimates are sometimes all that you have

– Sometimes have to build up from individual probabilities (problem for complex system)

First….

• Realize that people constantly dealing with uncertainty and risk – no different from everyday life

• However, complexity is VERY difficult to deal with (often become overwhelmed and seek to simplify and control)

• Planning is an attempt to understand and control (or at least guide) the future

• Anticipate and mitigate known risks

• Use the Project Management skills that you have

Common Project Risks

• Changing Priorities and goals

• Technical Problems

• Personnel problems / Poor management

• Inadequate Resources

• Schedule Pressures

• Project Creep and changes

• Unforeseen events

www.peeryfoundation.org

Somethings you cannot recover from

http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2011/05/20/photos-when-the-tsunami-hit-fukushima-daiichi/tab/slideshow/

…but these are rare

Project Goals

• Want to succeed

www.mountainmadness.com

www.newcanaannewsonline.com

Project Goals

www.mountainmadness.com

www.newcanaannewsonline.com

• What does that really mean?

• What is the real goal?

Goal of Titanic Voyage? • Mark Kozak-Holland wrote book about Titanic

Project Management

• Changed priorities, schedules, and compromises

www.history.com

Succeeding…

• Need a clear goal

• A path

• A Plan

• A Guide

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/everest/resources/basecampmap.html

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/everest-avalanche-how-a-sherpa-strike-will-affect-nepal-s-tourist-industry-1.2617621

Succeeding…

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/everest/resources/basecampmap.html

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/everest-avalanche-how-a-sherpa-strike-will-affect-nepal-s-tourist-industry-1.2617621

• Determination

• Capabilities and skills

• Resources

Succeeding…

….and A LOT of help

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/everest/resources/basecampmap.html

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/everest-avalanche-how-a-sherpa-strike-will-affect-nepal-s-tourist-industry-1.2617621

• Want to avoid getting to the point where you cannot recover

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/world-news/ship-crash-officers-plead-guilty-26826907.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Boots#/media/File:Green_Boots.jpg

Complex Projects

• Delivered by network of stakeholders and participants

• Public and private actors

• Different agendas, resources, skills, interests, goals

• Managing relationships, resources, and expectations

Navigating – need to keep asking:

1. Where are we? Are we on track?

2. Where are we headed? Is this going to get us where we want to go?

3. Has anything changed? Why did it change?

4. What do we need to get back on track?

Jeremie Averous, Project Value Delivery

www.stgermaine.ca

Predictable Manageable

Routine

Unpredictable Manageable

Unmanageable

Predictable Manageable

Routine

Unpredictable Manageable

Unmanageable

Recoverable

Low Probability High Probability

Not Recoverable

Recoverable

Low Likelihood of Problem High Likelihood

Not Recoverable

• Where are the risk factors and the greatest problems likely to come from?

• Where do you need to operate?

• What can you manage?

Recoverable

Low Likelihood of Problem High Likelihood

Not Recoverable

• Where do you use your resources?

Recoverable

Low Likelihood of Problem High Likelihood

Not Recoverable

• What is likely is dependent on where you are

• Climate change and environmental risks are becoming more common

Complexity

• No way to predict and control everything

• Not enough time or resources

• Need to manage what you can

• Need contingencies and recovery options

climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu

Managing Complex Projects

• Want to get problems identified and addressed early and effectively

• Reduce complexity and interdependencies where you can (Simplify if possible)

• Reduce unnecessary changes (even if they seem to be improvements, unless they are critical)

www.economia.gr

Human systems

• Projects happen in social, human systems

• Not purely technical

• Manage people and relationships

• People can do extraordinary things to save a project

www.dc-associates.com

Project Leadership

• Using interpersonal influence on team members to attain organizational and individual goals

• Create a compelling collective vision and communicate in a way that motivates others

• Acting in a way that causes others to respond and move in a shared direction

• Lead ethically

• Think about people • (Pinto et al, 1998, Project Leadership)

Project Leadership

• Some people can manage projects

• But, not lead complex projects

• They take different skills

• Require the ability to deal with uncertainty and ambiguity

• Inspire and trust others

Leadership Style

Do you:

• Want a lot of input?

• Need control?

• Have a short-temper?

• Distrust others?

• Avoid people?

• Prefer working in your office?

• Prefer purely technical work?

• (Avoid complex projects then)

Team forming and management

• Listening and Hearing

• Bargaining and negotiating

• Collaborating

• Foster inclusion and openness

• Allow others to express concerns and opinions

• (Want to know about problems early)

• Foster problem solving

Managing Conflict

• Conflict in any relationship is common

• Is the conflict constructive and productive or distracting and destructive?

• Don’t shut people down or allow others to do it

• Example of Project Management with dysfunctional team at GM

Context and Influences

• Cultures and Style – organizations are systems; culture are the norms and standards; shared beliefs

• Organization’s culture, style, and structure influence how its projects are performed.

• In complex projects, there are conflicting styles and paradigms

• Language is not necessarily common

• Don’t assume comprehension and agreement; ensure that you have common understanding

1. Where are we? Are we on track?

2. Where are we headed? Is this going to get us where we want to go?

3. Has anything changed? Why did it change?

4. What do we need to get back on track?

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.papago.M11ID

www.naturalnavigator.com

Navigating – need to keep asking:

Jeremie Averous, Project Value Delivery

Tracking Projects • Use the data and data tracking

• Big data and IT can help; can also make more complex

• Integrate data management into your project

• Have a project map to identify relationships (like McCrystal’s map)

• Don’t just assign tracking to someone else; use your data

• Progress and Variance reports

• Want to catch deviations and problems early

• Allows for early corrective action

Managing Change

• Every change is a significant change – particularly if affects the project time, budget, scope, or management (does it divert your time too?)

• It’s okay to make change difficult and to require justifications

• Think holistically

• Can require a formal written request and

• Project Impact Statement describing positive and negative effects on whole system/project

• Evaluate impacts

Possible Outcomes of Change

1. No impact to time line, resources, or budget

2. Extends schedule, no additional resources needed

3. Additional resources needed, no impact on schedule

4. Additional resources required and extends schedule

5. Project scope, time, budget, resources, and plan significantly impacted

6. Change cannot be accommodated

Lessons • Complex projects have a lot of uncertainties

• You cannot control everything

• Need to use Project Management and People skills

• Need to build a dynamic, flexible, adaptive, resilient system and team

• Recovery depends on catching problems early and addressing them

• Need to take a holistic view of the project (watch for the train, so your people don’t have to)

Questions?

http://www.aston.ac.uk/eas/research/groups/ncrg/

Beth-Anne Schuelke-Leech

schuelke-leech.1@osu.edu