BalticEarth-EarthsystemsciencefortheBalticSearegion

Outline

•  Introduc.onandinfrastructureMarcusReckermann,Intl.Bal3cEarthSecretariat,Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Germany

•  GrandChallengesAnnaRutgersson,UniversityofUppsala,Sweden

•  Scien.ficachievementsinhydrologyintheBal.cSearegionIrinaPartatsenok,Hydromet,Belarus

•  AdvancesandchallengesinhydrologyoftheBal.cseabasin:viewfromRussiaSergeiZhuravlev,RussianStateHydrologicIns3tute,St.Petersburg,Russia

BalticEarth-EarthsystemsciencefortheBalticSearegion

VisionoftheprogrammeToachieveanimprovedEarthSystemunderstandingoftheBal9cSearegion

•  Interdisciplinaryandinterna.onalcollabora3on(conferences,workshops,jointprojectsetc.)

•  Holis.cviewontheEarthsystemoftheBal3cSearegion,encompassingprocessesintheatmosphere,onlandandintheseaandalsointheanthroposphere

•  “Servicetosociety”intherespectthatthema.cassessmentsprovideanoverviewoverknowledgegapswhichneedtobefilled(e.g.byfundedprojects)

•  Educa.on(summerschools)•  InheritstheBALTEXnetworkofscien3stsandinfrastructuren

•  SucceedsBALTEXsincethe7thStudyConferenceonBALTEX,Borgholm,Öland,Sweden,10-14June2013

TheBal.cSearegion

TheBal.cSearegion

• DrainageBasin:2.13Mill.km2(20%oftheEuropeancon3nent)

• 85millionpeoplein14countries

• Bal3cSea:380000km2

St.Petersburg:Northernmostcitywith>1million

TheBal.cSearegion

Bothhavebeenac3veinBALTEXformanyyears

5

TheNorth…Ò  extensiveforests,

mostlyconiferousÒ  sparselypopulatedÒ  mostlyrockycoastsÒ  subarc.cclimatein

winter

TheSouth…

Ò  intenseagriculture

Ò  denselypopulated

Ò  mostlysandycoasts

Ò  moderateclimateinwinter

Bal.cEarthInfrastructure

•  Interna.onalBal.cEarthSecretariatatHelmholtzZentrumGeesthacht

•  Bal.cEarthScienceSteeringGroup(BESSG)Excellent,ac3ve“young”scien3sts;countrybalance,genderbalance,disciplinebalance,ins3tu3onalbalance,currently20members;mee3ngsbiannually

•  WorkingGroupsinstalledforeachGCpluso  WGonOutreachandCommunica3ono  WGonEduca3ono  WGontheU3lityofRegionalClimate

ModelsWGontheAssessmentofScenarioSimula3onsfortheBal3cSea1960-2100

•  SeniorAdvisoryBoard

•  SciencePlan

AnnaRutgersson,ProfessorofMeteorology,UppsalaUniversity,Sweden.

BESSGchairs

MarkusMeier,HeadofPhysicalOceanography,Bal3cSeaResearchIns3tute,Germany

Bothhavebeenac3veinBALTEXformanyyears

MarcusReckermann,Interna3onalBALTEXSecretariatGEWEX/GHPMee3ng,Boulder,19October2011 7

BALTEXInfrastructureandAc3vi3es

Bal.cEarthSSGmembers

JurisAigarsLatvia

IngaDailidienėLithuania

JariHaapalaFinland

KarolKulinskiPoland

FranzBergerGermany

AndreasLehmannGermany

MarkusMeierGermany

KaiMyrbergFinland

AndersOmstedtSweden

IrinaPartasenokBelarus

PiiaPostEstonia

MarcusReckermannGermany

GregorRehderGermany

AnnaRutgerssonSweden

CorinnaSchrumGermany

BenSmithSweden

Mar.nStendelDenmark

RalfWeisseGermany

SergeyZhuravlevRussia

MarcusReckermann,Interna3onalBALTEXSecretariatGEWEX/GHPMee3ng,Boulder,19October2011 8

BALTEXInfrastructureandAc3vi3es

Bal.cEarthSeniorAdvisoryBoard

UllaLiZweifelHELCOM

StanislavMasselPoland

AndrisAndrusail.sBONUS

FritzKösterDenmark

JanPolcherGEWEX-GHP

JüriElkenEstonia

DeliangChenSweden

Hans-JörgIsemerGermanyKayEmeis

Germany

ValeryVuglinskyRussia

Infrastructure

Secretariat

Publications

Websiteetc.

Events

Infrastructure

Secretariat

Publications

Websiteetc.

Events

Infrastructure

Secretariat

Publications

Website

Infrastructure

Secretariat

Publications

Websiteetc.

Events

Infrastructure

Secretariat

Publications

Websiteetc.

Events

MarcusReckermann,Interna3onalBALTEXSecretariatGEWEX/GHPMee3ng,Boulder,19October2011 14

BALTEXInfrastructureandAc3vi3es

Bal.cEarthConferencesConferencesWorkshopsandSeminarsSummerSchools

1stBalticEarthConferenceNida,Lithuania,June2016

2ndBalticEarthConferenceHelsingør,Denmark,June2018

Rome,Italy,Nov2015HyMex

Vienna,Austria,Apr2015,Apr2016EGU

Hamburg,GermanyMay2014,Mar2015,Sep2016

Events

SummerSchools

WorkshopsandSeminars

TopicalConferences

BalticEarthConferences

Events

SummerSchools

WorkshopsandSeminars

TopicalConferences

BalticEarthConferences

Events

SummerSchools

WorkshopsandSeminars

TopicalConferences

BalticEarthConferences

Events

SummerSchools

WorkshopsandSeminars

TopicalConferences

BalticEarthConferences

Events

SummerSchools

WorkshopsandSeminars

TopicalConferences

BalticEarthConferences

JointBal3cEarth-ESAWorkshopon

RemoteSensingapplica.onsintheBal.cSearegion

Helsinki,Finland

29-31March2017

Events

SummerSchools

WorkshopsandSeminars

TopicalConferences

BalticEarthConferences

Events

SummerSchools

WorkshopsandSeminars

TopicalConferences

BalticEarthConferences

Events

SummerSchools

WorkshopsandSeminars

TopicalConferences

BalticEarthConferences 2ndBalticEarthConference

Helsingør,Denmark10-15June2018

www.baltex-research.eu

Bal.cEarthGrandChallenges

AnnaRutgerssonProfessorofMeteorologyUppsala

UniversityCo-chair,Bal3cEarth

BalticEarthSciencePlanandGrandChallenges

• Flexiblescienceplanwithacon3nuouslyon-goingdefini3onofcoreresearchques3onswhichareiden3fiedtobekeyscien3ficissues,so-called“GrandChallenges”(GCs)

• NewGrandChallengeswillbeiden3fiedatconferencesandbyusingassessmentsofexis.ngresearchbydedicatedworkinggroups.GrandChallengesareenvisagedtoberesearchfociforperiodsofabout3-4years(thenterminatedorupdated).

• Thehumanimpactwillbeassessedatalllevels,whereverpossibleandsenseful

• GC1:Salinitydynamics

• GC2:Land-Seabiogeochemicallinkages

• GC3:Naturalhazardsandextremeevents

• GC4:SealevelandcoastaldynamicsoftheBal3cSea

• GC5:Regionalvariabilityofwaterandenergyexchanges• GC6:Mul3pledriversofregionalEarthsystemchanges

BalticEarthSciencePlanandGrandChallenges

• GC1:SalinitydynamicsGEWEX

• GC2:Land-Seabiogeochemicallinkages

• GC3:NaturalhazardsandextremeeventsGEWEX

• GC4:SealevelandcoastaldynamicsoftheBal3cSea

• GC5:RegionalvariabilityofwaterandenergyexchangesGEWEX

• GC6:Mul3pledriversofregionalEarthsystemchanges

BalticEarthSciencePlanandGrandChallenges

GC1:SalinitydynamicsintheBal.cSea

•  Interrela3onbetweendecadal/climatevariabilityandsalinity.

• WatermassexchangeandmajorBal3cinflows

•  Regionalsalinitydistribu3on/variabilityandassociatedcircula3onpalerns(includingsalinityfluxesbetweenthecoastalareasandtheopenseaandwithinthesub-basins).

GCchairs:AndreasLehman,GEOMAR,KaiMyrberg,FMI;PiiaPost,UniversityofTarttu

Suggestedkeyresearchthemes

ElkenandMalhäus(2008)

GC2:Land-Seabiogeochemicallinkages

•  C,N,Pcyclesstudiesfortheunderstandingprimaryproduc3onmechanismandorganicmalertransforma3onsintheBal3cSea

•  Transforma3onsandpathwaysofterrestrialorganicmaler,influenceoftheterrestrialinputonthecarbonatesystem

•  extensionofthedatabaseswiththemissingterrestrialloadsdataofthekeychemicalsubstances(e.g.NevaRiver).

GCchairs:GergorRehder,IOW,KarolKulinski,IO-PAN,BenjaminSmith,LundUniversity

Suggestedkeyresearchthemes

Omstedtetal

GC3:NaturalhazardsandextremeeventsintheBalticSearegion

Background:•  Societyisverysensi3vetoextremegeophysicaleventsthathavesevereimplica3onsforhumanlife,generateeconomiclossesandinfluenceecosystems.

•  Anaturaldisasterlinksextremegeophysicaleventstoecosystemsandsociety(inpar3cularweaknessesinecosystemsandsociety)

•  Understandingtheunderlyingcausesofnaturaldisastersincreasestheabilitytopredicttheoccurrenceandseverityandmaysavehumanlivesaswellasmi3gateeconomiclosses.

GCchairs:JaariHaapala,FMI;AnnaRutgersson,UppsalaUniversity;MartinStendel,DMI,

Photos:Mar+nStendelandFinnMajlergaard

FloodingatDMI

GC3:NaturalhazardsandextremeeventsintheBalticSearegionBackground:•  Manynaturalhazardshavehydrometeorologicalorigin(storms,waves,flooding,droughts).

•  Naturalhazardsareonencausedbyseveralfactors(stormsurgeincombina3onwithprecipita3onandriverrunoffmightcauseextremeflooding).

•  Predic3oncapabili3esareverylimited.Thisisgenerallywellrecognizedregardinginfrastructuresuchasdamsafetyandurbanfloodingrisks.

•  Therangeofecosystemservicesatriskismorepoorlydefined,fromvitalsocietalfunc3onssuchasdrinkingwatersupplytobiodiversity.

From:h6p://www.eumetrain.org/data/2/227/navmenu.php?tab=2&page=8.0.0FMI

StormXyntia

Suggestedkeyresearchthemes•  Changesinatmosphericcircula3onintheNorthernHemisphere,andtheimpactofcircula3onchangesonclimateextremesintheBal3cSearegioninthefuture.

•Responseandcontribu3onofmarineprocessestochangesinextremeandclimatevariability(waterlevel,waves,icecondi3ons,seasurfacetemperature).

•Monthlytoseasonalpredic3onsystemsandprobabilis3ces3matesoftheextremeevents.

•Howhastheachievementofenvironmentalgoalsinfluencedchangesinextremecondi3ons(droughts,floodsandheatwaves)?

•Howvulnerableisdrinkingwatersecuritytohydrometeorologicalextremes?•Whatistheresponseofmarineecosystemsto

extremeevents?•HowwillthecarboncycleoftheBal3cSea

regionrespondtochangesinextremecondi3ons?

GudrunStorm

GC3:NaturalhazardsandextremeeventsintheBalticSearegion

GC4:SeaLevelandCoastalDynamics

•  Futuresealevelchangeson3mescalesfromseasonstodecades(meanandextremesealevels)

•  Asystema3ccomparisonof3de-gaugesandhighresolu3onsatelliteproducts.morehigh-resolu3onoceanandatmosphere-oceanregionalsimula3onsoftheBal3cSeaarebecomingavailable.

•  Consistentanalysisofalldatasetsisneeded.

GCchairs:RalfWeisse,HZG,AndersOmstedtUniversityofGothenburg,BirgitHunicke,HZG

Suggestedkeyresearchthemes

Es3ma3onsofcrustaldeforma3onratesintheBal3cSeaRegionderivedbydifferentmethods.FromRichteretal.(2011)andHarffetal.(2010).

GC5:RegionalvariabilityofwaterandenergyexchangesintheBal.cSearegion

•  Theobserva3onofatmosphericprocesses

•  Thediagnosisofnaturalvariabilityofenergyandwatercomponents.

•  Theimproveddescrip3onandmodellingofatmosphericprocesses

•  Theextendedandcon3nuousevalua3onofatmosphericprocesseswithconven3onalmeteorological/hydrologicalobserva3ons.

•  Themodelling/predic3onofshort-andlong-termwaterandenergyexchanges.

GCchairs:SergejZhuravlev,Saint-PetersburgStateUniversity,IrinaPartasenok,CentreforHydrometeorology

Suggestedkeyresearchthemes

GC6:Mul.pledriversofregionalEarthsystemchanges

•  Amixtureofinterwovenfactors,suchasregionalclimatechange,eutrophica3on,pollu3on,fisheries,hydrographicengineering,agriculturalandforestryprac3cesandlandcoverchangeareresponsibleforthecurrentsitua3onandofpoten3alimportanceasdriversoffuturechanges.

•  Thereisaneedforincreasedcoopera3onamongresearchershavingspecialisedknowledgeofdifferentcomponentsofthecoupledbiophysical-societalsystem.

•  Keydisciplinesincludemeteorologyandclimatescience,oceanography,hydrology,marine,terrestrialandfreshwaterecology,microbiologyandbiogeochemistry,economists,humangeographers,poli3calscien3stsandengineers.

GCchairs:BenjaminSmith,LundUniversity;JurisAigars,UniversityofLatviaMarcusReckermann,HZG

Suggestedkeyresearchthemes

JointBalticEarth/ESAWorkshop

29-31March,Helsinki,Finland

Scien3fictopics:

• SalinitydynamicsintheBal3cSea

• Land-SeabiogeochemicalfeedbacksintheBal3cSearegion

• Naturalhazardsandregionalvariabilityofwaterandenergyexchanges

• Understandingsealeveldynamics

• Generaltopics

Remotesensingapplicationstoaddressregionalchallenges

Baltic Assessment of Climate

Change

Long-term climate change

Recent climate change

Future climate change

Environmental Impact climate

change

Socio-economic Impacts of

climate change

Drivers for Regional climate change

Climate change During the Holocene (Past 12000years)

The Historical Time Period (Past 1000 years)

Atmosphere River runoff and Ice cover Terrestrial Cryosphere Marine Circulation and Stratification Sea Ice Sea Level and Wind Waves

Atmosphere Hydrology Marine Physics Sea Level Atmosphere Chemistry

Coastal Ecosystems, Birds and Forests Freshwater Biogeochemistry Marine Biogeochemistry Marine Ecosystems Coastal Erosion an Coastline changes

Forestry and Agriculture Urban Complexes

Forestry and Agriculture Urban Complexes

Study

1.Long-term changes

2. Recent changes

3.Future Projections

Bal.cEarthachievments

1.Long-termClimateChange(12000yearsBP)

ClimatechangeduringtheHoloceneFormainstagesoftheBal3cSea1)  Bal3cIceLakestage(before

11500yearsBP)2)  YoldiaseaStage

(11700-10700yearsBP)3)  AncylusLakeStage

(10700-9500yearsBP)4)  LilorinaSeaStage(9500

yearstopresent).

Reconstructed April–June (AMJ) precipitation totals (top) and summer (June–August) temperature anomalies (bottom) for central Europe with respect to 1901–2000. Error bars are ±1 RMSE (Root-Mean Square Error) for the calibration periods. Black lines show independent precipitation and temperature reconstructions from Germany (Büntgen et al. 2010) and Switzerland (Büntgen et al. 2006). Bold lines are 60-year low-pass filters. Periods of demographic expansion, economic prosperity and societal stability are noted, as are periods of political turmoil, cultural change and population instability. Büntgen et al. (2011b)

1.Long-termClimateChange(1000yearsBP)

www.bal3cearth.eu

MillenialClimateMedievalWarmPeriod(900-1350)Transi3onalPeriod(13580-1550)LilleIcePeriod(1550-1850)ConterporaryWarmPeriod(aner1850)

ReconstructedannualriverdischargetotheBal3cSeaforthepast500years.Thegreyshadingindicates1and2standarderrorsofthereconstructedriverdischarge(Hanssonetal.2011)

The2-mtemperatureanomalywithregardtothepreindustrialmean(950–1900)forthewinter(DJF),summer(JJA)andannualmeanaveragedovertheBal3cSearegion.Thecolouredsec3onshighlighttheperiodsthataredefinedasMWP(red)andLIA(blue).Thedarkercoloursreflectthe50-yearperiodswhichareconsideredfortheanalysisoftheBal3cSea.AnerSchimankeetal.(2012)

Sub-basinsoftheBal3cSeadrainagebasingreaterthan6km2insize(HannerzandDestouni2006)

2.RecentChanges-studyobject

River Country Area(km2)

PercentageofBal3cSeadrainagebasin

Meanannualdischarge(m3s−1)

PercentageoftotalriverinflowtotheBal3cSea

Run-off(lkm−2s−1)

Neva Russia/Finland 281,000 16.1 2460 17.6 8.8

Vistula

Poland/Ukraine/Belarus/Slovakia

194,400 11.2 1065 7.6 5.5

Odra

Poland/Germany/CzechRepublic

118,900 6.8 573 4.1 4.8

Nemunas(Lithuanian)

Belarus/Lithuania/Russia

98,200 5.6 632 4.5 6.4

Daugava

Belarus/Latvia/Lithuania/Estonia/Russia

87,900 5.1 659 4.7 7.5

Narva Estonia/Russia 56,200 3.2 403 2.9 7.2

Kemi Finland 51,400 3.0 562 4.0 11.0Göta Sweden 50,100 2.9 574 4.1 11.5

Torne Sweden/Finland 40,100 2.3 392 2.8 9.8

Kymi Finland 37,200 2.1 338 2.4 9.1Total 1,015,400 58 7658 55

Moistening in the

autumn and winter season

Water supply in the snow

cover before melting

Floods wave coherence in the large river basins

Ice cover on the snow

pack

Depth of ground freezing

before snow melting

Snow melting intensity

Climateforcingthestreamflowandfloods

Atmospheric Circulation Air temperature Precipitation

Precipitation

Atmosphere–northshinofthecyclonesandincreaseofwesterly.

Wind–increaseofwindspeedintheNorth.Precipita3on–nosign.changeforen3reregion,moreintheNorth.Fallingislongerandmoreextremes.

Airtemperature–increase,especiallyincoldpartoftheyear.

2.RecentChanges

www.bal3cearth.eu

2.RecentChanges-Hydrology

TrendsinannualstreamflowwithintheNordiccountriesfor1920–2002(leJ),1941–2002(middle)and1961–2000(right)(Hisdaletal.2010)

Long-termchangeinprecipita3onandmeanannualdischargeforriversintheBal3cSeabasin:1precipita3on(Sta3onRīgaUniversity);2Nemunas;3Daugava;4Narva;5Pärnu.Curves1–4:lenaxis,curve5:rightaxis.Dataweresmoothedusinga6-yearmovingaverage

3.FutureProjec.ons-HydrologyCountry Modelcombina3ons Scenario Results

Denmark 1)HIRHAM2)NAM+ECHAM4-HIRHAM

SRESA2

Annualdischargeincreaseupto11-14%Annualdischargeincreaseupto9-34%

Sedimentupto24-27%Phosphorupto3.3-16.5%

Finland 1)WSFS2)TUFLOW+2GCM+RCA3RCM3)TUFLOW+3GCM+4RCM

SRESA2,A1BB1

1)North–nochange,WestandCentre–floodsincrease2)Floodsdecrease3)Floodsdecreaseupto8-22%

Latvia HBV+HadAM3H-RCAO

SRESA2B2

Annualdischargesdecreaseupto2-24%

Lithuania HBV+ECHAM5andHadCM3

SRESA1B Annualdischargesdecreaseupto41%

Norway HBV+2GCM+RCM SRESA2B2 Winterandautumndischargedecrease

Poland ECHAM5-MPI-M-REMO

Waterdecreaseinthemedianvaluefrom−32to−50mm

Sweden HBV+GCM/RCMECHAM5/RCA3

SRESA1B Uncertainnessintheprojec3ons

AdvancesandchallengesinhydrologyoftheBal.cseabasin:viewfromRussia

SergeiZhuravlev,AssociateProfessor,ChairofHydrology,Inst.ofEarthSciences,SPbSULeadingresearcher,headoftheHydrologicModellingLab,RussianStateHydrologicIns3tutes.zhuravlev@spbu.ru

HydrologicalnetworkinRussiaandRussianpartoftheBal.cSeabasin

•  Totalnumberofhydrologicalsta.onsisabout3000.

•  Itisslowlydecreasingduringlastyears•  RussianpartoftheBal.cseabasinhasthehighestdensityofhydrologicalnetwork

*HMC.BY2014**WMOINFOHYDRO2014***Freshsurfacewater,2009

HydrologicaldatasetsandnewdataservicesinRussia

Dailydischarges(1950sta3ons)from2008uptodateDailywaterlevels(2650sta3ons)Hydrochemicaldata,waterturbidity,iceregimeetc

ButonlyinRussianL

•  regionalsystemsi.e.hlp://emercit.com/map/

•  localdatasetsDailyrunoffdatafortheRussianpartoftheBal3cseabasin(1946-1992)

•  automatedinforma3onsystemofthestatemonitoringofwaterobjects(gmvo.skniivh.ru)

Runoffstudies:runofftrendsinRussia

•  Winterandsummerlowflowsareincreasing

•  Differentspa3alpalernsforspringfloods

•  Strongneedforregionalstudies

Anomaliesofwinter,springandsummer–fallrunoff

(Shiklomanov,Georgievskiy,2008)

RunofftrendsintheRussianpartoftheBal.cseabasin•  Peakrunoffofspringfloodsovertheeastof

GoFbasinstendstodecreaseinthesouthandtoincreaseinthenorth

•  Themajorfactorofpeakflowreducingisincreasingofthawsduringthewinterperiod

•  Spa3alcorrela3onofpeakrunoffisdecreasing(Red–perfectcorrela3on;blue–weak)

Peakflowtrendsfortheperiod1946-2013(1946-1978) (1979-2013) (Zhuravlev,2016)

Hydrologicmodeling

AnumberofhydrologicalmodelswereadaptedtoBal.cSearegion:

•  HYPE(SMHI,Sweden)

•  HBV(SMHI,Sweden)

•  Hydrograph(SHI,Russia)

•  WetSPA(Belgium,adaptedtoPoland)

•  SWAT(USA,adaptedtodifferentcountriesofBal3cSearegion)andmanyothers

Objec.ves:Toshareinforma3onaboutdifferentmodelsadaptedforBal3cSeabasinToreviewnumeroushydrologicalstudiesforthedifferentsub-basinsoftheBal3cSea

Whatshouldbedone(acc.toBESciencePlan,GC5Understandingregionalvariabilityofwaterandenergyexchanges)

•  Datadescrip3onandtransla3on.Guidelineprepara3on.

•  Reviewar3cle&par3cipa3oninassessmentreports

•  New“sub”-regionalprojects(e.g.WesternDvinaproject,RussiaandBelarus)

ThankYou!