Post on 06-Jan-2022
background &
key findings
Release Speech
Xiaojie Xu Chief Fellow
Institute of world economics and
politics (IWEP)
chinese academy of social sciences
IEEJ : June 2015. All Rights Reserved.
About the Project
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
Nature - WECO is an interactive and long range researched
outlook currently focusing on China energy outlook and its
implications worldwide done on an annual basis.
Objectives - It provides independent insights and foresights with
our own database and independent investigation to energy
stakeholders.
WECO 2014-2015,
Focus on energy transition and policy options require for eco-
civilization construction including tackling climate change;
Prioritize energy trends and challenges around 2020 and their
impacts on well-off (affluent) society as planned and the entire
world.
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
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Features and Methods
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
1. We emphasize systematic, holistic and synergetic approaches.
2. We emphasize new policy scenario in the outlook period (2011-
2030) like the IEA does in its WEO.
3. However, new policy scenario is our current case, not central. We
do not follow IEA like current policy case and 450 case, instead,
developing eco-energy strategy scenario based on our best
understanding of eco-civilization drive after the 18th CPC, which
featured by environmental counter-pressures. Climate
commitments are included.
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New Policies
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
4
A series of new and intensive policies, planning, regulations and plans for actions combined were released in the second half 2013 and throughout 2014, in a larger number than ever.
Most of these new policies are subject to unavoidable and growing environmental concerns
June 5th 2015 Tokyo
1/1
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3/2
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0/1
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10
/28
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/27
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10
/23
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/22
/14
Figure 24: New Energy Policies: 2013-2014
Coal
Natural Gas
Renewables
Plans for Action
Strategic Planning
Energy Strategic Implementation
Plan for Action against Emission from Coal fired Generation
Emission Standards for Thermal Power
IEEJ : June 2015. All Rights Reserved.
Our comments on new policies
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
Key messages conveyed -
(a)Shift to cleaner energy mix by reducing dependency on coal, e.g.
diminishing burning coal and inefficient coal turbines.
(b)emphasize sustainable development through innovations. Enhance
savings and efficiency and reducing emission through recycling, high-
tech, policy incentives while developing new sources.
(c)Re-focus energy products as commodities through reform attempts
and enhance public interests.
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Eco-energy New Strategy Scenario
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
As our central scenario, eco-energy strategy in our research
indicates something new into the country.
1.Energy development serves but not limited to economic growth
2.Energy development means not only sizable spending and supplies,
enhanced employment and profit and tax resulted, but energy services
featured by multiple A, and clean, diverse and flexible and efficiency
utilization of all types of energy sources for the mankind.
3.Energy development is not only the business of the industry, but
interests of the state and the public, not only a matter of a country, but
the entire world. Therefore, multilateral and trans-regional and cross
border cooperation is required and a must.
Based on all the above mentioned, we build up our own database.
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
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Database 2014
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
The database 2014 version is the “ballast” of our energy outlook as a
whole.
Our data are largely well-defined and streamlined based on our best
understanding and in-house research of the said issues together with a
set of assumptions (population, GDP growth rates, urbanization,
energy prices and relevant indicators and index calculations).
Therefore, our data are neither the same received from State Statistical
Bureau or energy administration, nor the industry.
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
IEEJ : June 2015. All Rights Reserved.
Chapters for Outlook
Chapter 1 Global Energy Trends
1. Global energy trends
2. China energy outlook
3. Global implications
Chapter 2 New Energy Policy
1. Energy policies in key EMs
2. Energy policy trends in China
3. Sustainable energy: needs vs. features
4. Policy options for China
Chapter 3 Clean Coal and Policy
1. Global coal trends
2. Coal in China
3. Coal demand and supply
4. Policies towards clean coal
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
Chapter 4 Power Trends and Policy
1. Global power trends
2. Power sector in China
3. Power system and reforms
4. Power policy
Chapter 5 Nuclear and Policy
1. Global nuclear trends
2. Nuclear in China
3. Nuclear outlook for China
4. Nuclear policy options
Chapter 6 Energy Technology
1. Energy technology worldwide
2. Energy technology advances in China
3. Critical technological contributions to
outlook.
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Chapter on Energy Security
Chapter 7 Reframing Energy Security
1. Energy security, a global perspective
2. Energy security under EES scenario
3. Get energy security measurable
Chapter 8 Cooperation with Central Asia
1. Cooperation advances
2. Oil & gas developments in Central Asia
3. Cooperation policies
4. Prospects and outlooks
Chapter 9 Cooperation with ASEANs
1. Resources potential in ASEANs
2. Cooperation status quo
3. Destinations
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
Chapter 10 Cooperation with
Africa
1. Resources, production and
exports
2. Oil & gas policies
3. Advances and natures
4. Prospects and directions
Chapter 11 Energy BRICS
1. Definition and analyses
2. Energy BRICS analyses
3. Multilateral cooperation and
repercussions
4. Playing fields and roles
5. Directions and mechanisms
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Executive Summary
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
I. World Energy Trends and Changing Framework into 2030
II. Basic Trend of Energy Development: China vs. the World
III. Energy Policy Trend in 2014-2015
IV. Sector Policy Trends
V. Technological Contributions
VI. Reframing Energy Security
VII. Energy BRICS
VIII. Recommendations for 2015 and the 13th Five-Year Plan
Snapshots of key points on energy outlook on China
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I. Energy D/S Outlook into 2030
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
1. Energy demand continues to grow upward into 2020 and will level off
thereafter.
Energy D/S will continue to grow at 3.79% vs. 2.72% driven by economic growth,
new Four Drives and the environmental pressures, combined. However, both slow
down to 1-2% thereafter. Energy demand could be 3373 million toe while energy
supply could reach 2855 million toe by 2020. These data could be expanded if…
Meanwhile, energy mix will be reshaped obviously that is critical to the country in the
next 5 years to come (i.e., the 13th Five-Year Plan).
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
65.7% 65.1% 62.6% 58.4% 50.4%
18.9% 18.7% 18.5% 16.7% 16.5% 151 171 207 10.5% 14.2%
193 222 225
7.9% 8.9%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2013 2014 2015 2020 2030
Figure 5: Energy Demand in China
Others
Bio
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
76.0% 74.3% 73.1% 67.4% 59.6%
8.8% 8.6% 8.4% 7.8% 7.9% 4.4% 4.9% 5.6% 7.7% 10.5% 8.2% 9.1% 9.0% 9.3%
10.5%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2013 2014 2015 2020 2030
Figure 6: Energy Supply in China
Others
Bio
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
IEEJ : June 2015. All Rights Reserved.
II. Coal Demand Growth
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
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2. Coal demand witness near-zero growth in 2014 and will be upward
steadily until 2020 when reaching peak plateau (below 2000 million
toe). The peak plateau could be lower if new policy could fully implemented
and expanded. Coal demand share will reduce from 65% in 2014 down
below 50% in 2030, remaining the King of energy mix in China. Near-zero
emission (SO2, NOx and ash) is possible. Clean coal is our future of choice.
June 5th 2015 Tokyo
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Figure 7: Coal Demand & Supply and Share
Demand Output Coal Share
IEEJ : June 2015. All Rights Reserved.
III. Oil Outlook
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
3. Oil demand will grow steadily while output increase at snail pace.
Foreign dependency will be around 60% or lightly higher.
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Figure 8: Oil Output & Demand and
Foreign Dependency
Oil Demand
Oil Production
Foreign Dependency
Oil demand will be 636 million tones to
production 250 million tones in 2030,
well below some projections to 750, 800
or 936 million tones.
We believe an incremental demand of oil
could be substituted by non-oil fuels and
constrained by oil saving and upgraded
transporting system from substitution
drive and technology advances view.
E.g., new energy vehicles will be one of
substitution, even EV/HEVs are far from
satisfying our targets at present but
could be boosted by new policy. At least,
100 mt of oil could be substituted. 0
10
20
30
40
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EV/HEV Growth 5mm@2020
EV/HEV V
IEEJ : June 2015. All Rights Reserved.
IV. Gas Outlook
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
4. Natural gas demand will continue to grow at two digital rate
(although slow down a bit in 2014) driven by price reform,
technology advances and clean energy policy. Surplus of supply
is impossible.
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2013 2014 2015 2017 2020 2030
Figure 9: Gas Outputs and Imports in China
Imports
Conventional Gas
CBM
Shale Gas Output
Foreign Dependency
Gas fired generation is
encouraged from 15% to 20%.
Domestic output driven by
unconventional gas sources while
multiple import sources are
ample.
Gas surplus could be possible but
not understandable and
impossible if absorbed and
managed well.
IEEJ : June 2015. All Rights Reserved.
V. Nuclear Outlook
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
5. China is a lower nuclear power user (1% in its energy mix) with big
potential to expanded.
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2020 2030
Figure 10: Nuclear Installed Capacity
Nuclear Installed Capacity Nuclear share
GW
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2013 2014 2015 2020 2030
Figure 11: Nuclear Power Generation
Nuclear Power Generation
Nuclear share
TWh
The next decade will be seen a rapid
growth of nuclear electricity generation
averaged at 12.8% from 2013 to 2030
(compared with 4.2% of electricity growth
nationwide and 2% of energy demand).
Nuclear electricity generation will be 867
TWh based on 112 GW installed capacity,
accordingly, both shares in energy mix will
be 8% and 4.35% in 2030.
Why 112 GW? Lower than some expected
because of our conservative view of
nuclear sector and its constraints in
industrial chains, HR and public
acceptance.
Acceptable size and growth rate are critical
to nuclear policy making moving forward.
IEEJ : June 2015. All Rights Reserved.
VI. Renewables Outlook
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
6. Modern renewables will be witnessing rapid growth while hydro power increases steadily. Non-fossil fuels including nuclear, geo-thermal and bio-fuels will surpass oil in energy mix (16%) in 2020.
However, renewables encountered
uncertainties. Besides higher costs
and lower transfer rate, unstable
utilization hours, not to mention
management of wind and solar PV
are distinguished from thermal
powers. CSP and bio-energy are
less developed.
There exist wastes in wind, solar PV,
even hydro sources being subject to
policy innovation and marketization.
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0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
15.0%
18.0%
21.0%
24.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2013 2014 2015 2020 2030
Figure 12: Non-fossil fuels Growth
Others
Bio
Hydro
Nuclear
Non-fossil fuels share
Mtoe
* geo-thermal and bio-fuels included
IEEJ : June 2015. All Rights Reserved.
VII. Electricity Outlook
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
7. Electricity Generation has reached 5540 TWh based on installed
capacity 1338 GW. Shares of coal and hydro installed capacities will
be decreased because of increases in nuclear, gas and renewables.
Coal power capacity reduced from 65% down to 48.7%; gas used for
power generation will increase from current 15% up to 20% if gas fired
turbine facilities nationalized, gas price rationalized, plus policy renewed.
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64.5% 62.7% 61.0% 55.1% 48.7%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2013 2014 2015 2020 2030
Figure 13: Power Installed Capacity Others
Solar
Wind
Bio
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
GW
75.6% 72.8% 71.9% 68.1% 60.1%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2013 2014 2015 2020 2030
Figure 14: Power Generation Others
Solar
Wind
Bio
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
TWh
IEEJ : June 2015. All Rights Reserved.
VIII. Carbon Emission
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
8. Under the EES scenario, carbon emission target would be
met and surpassed.
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0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
2005 2010 2015 2020
Figure 16: Energy Instensity and Carbon Intensity
Growth
Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity
41% reduction between 2005 and 2020
48% reduction between 2005 and 2020
CO2 Ton/10K RMB Oil Equivalent Ton/10K RMB
CO2 emission from fossil fuels
could reach 8000 mt in 2015
and 9200 mt or higher in 2020
before leveling off thereafter.
Because of coal demand peak
in 2020, CO2 emission could
fall around 9500 mt. Therefore,
CO2 emission target for 45%
reduction to that in 2005 will be
met in 2019 and 48% in 2020,
well higher than committed.
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IX. Differences (IEA vs. IWEP)
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
Energy Demand
IEA
IWEP
20000
25000
30000
35000
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Electricity Generation
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000
36000
38000
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Carbon Emission
9. Comparison between IEA and IWEP on China’s energy
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IX. Differences (IEA vs. IWEP)
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
IWEP energy mix vs. that of IEA:
- Our coal share is lower while gas share higher than those by the IEA
in energy mix
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2020 2030
Figure 17: Energy Demand Mix in China
Others
Bio
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2020 2030
Figure 18: IEA Energy Demand in China Mix
Others
Bio
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
IEEJ : June 2015. All Rights Reserved.
X. Global Impacts
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
10. Against the global energy demand mix, we believe China
under EES scenario would facilitate global energy
transformation into 2030
资料来源:IEA,WEO 2014
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2012 2020 2030
Figure 4: World Energy Mix
Others
Bio
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
IEA: Global energy demand will grow
fairly steadily and see snail growth from
2% in 2025 down to 1% in 2030.
However, shares of clean energy sources
(gas, nuclear and renewables) will
increase from 40% up to 46% in 2030
globally indicating a greater optimization
in energy mix.
This trends could be seen earlier because
of changes taking place in OECD and
Non-OECD (China mainly).
IEEJ : June 2015. All Rights Reserved.
XI. Energy Transformation - China
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
11. There are evident transformation seen in OECD countries and non-
OECD.
De-couple of energy demand and economic growth in OECD while the ties between the
two are tightly indexed in Non-OECD. Energy efficiency, saving and innovation play key
roles in both types of energy transformation.
Greater energy transformation will be seen in China around 2020 featured by reduction
in energy use, enhanced energy efficiency, technology innovation.
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
0%
50%
100%
2010 2013 2015 2020 2030
Figure 1: Industrial Structure and Energy Use
Primary Industry
Secondary Industry
Tertiary Industry
Energy Use by the secondary Industry
Tce/10k GDP
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2015 2020 2025 2030
Figure 2: Urbanization and Energy Use
Urbanization Energy use per capita
Toe/person
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Key Data for Well-off Society
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
Field Items Unit 2015
Planning
2015
EES
2020
EES
2020
Industry
Energy
Consumption &
Efficiency
Energy Consumption 100 mtce 40 41.9 48.9 52.7
Coal share % — 63.6 57.3 60.4
Non-fossil fuels % 11.4 11.1 14.8 13.7
Electricity TWh 6150 6000 7390 8610
Energy Intensity Tce/10kRMB 0.68 0.71 0.59 0.64
Coal use by thermal Power Grame/kwh 323 318.6 308.6 308.6
Electricity
Installed capacity GW 1490 1420 1830 2030
Coal fired GW 960 880 960 1210
Hydro GW 290 310 380 400
Nuclear GW 40 33.37 59.45 61.6
Gas fired GW 56 50 90 77.88
Wind GW 100 100 210 200
Solar GW 21 35 100 50
Ecosystem
protection
CO2 emission intensity Tone/10kRMB — 1.43 1.12 1.23
Reduction of CO2 cimmited % — 33.3 47.8 42.5
Well being
Energy use per capita tce — 3.0 3.4 3.7
Electricity per capita kwh — 4364 5133 5986
Electricity per capita for
residential kwh 620 574 737 1172
Population using gas 100 million 2.5 2.9 ?? ??
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XII. Energy Security Reframed
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
12. Today we are facing interlinked landscape of energy security. To
make the concept measurable and manageable is required.
In our report, we reframe energy security by a set of relevant aspects covering
energy industry, regulators, environmental concerns, biological care, societal
relation, public expectation, international relations, infrastructure and future
development before indexed.
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
0 2 4 6 8 10
Non-traditional threats
Ecological threats
Corridor security
Policy Synergy with relevant countries
FX employed for security
Price
Bi/multi cooperation mechanisms
Exporting capability & stability
Long term cooperation with exporters
Stockpile and supply dates
Chokepoint security
Transportation satisfaction
Foreign dependency
Supply self sufficiency
Energy efficiency
Market sustainability
Industrial Stability & Sustainability
Figure 25: Energy Security Evaluation
Evaluation
Security Indicator
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XIII. Energy Cooperation
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
14. Such an energy security is also
subject to multilateral cooperation
arrangements:
- China-Russia-Central Asia
- China-ASEANs
- North Indian Ocean
- North Pacific
- Sino-Europe-
- Partner with Intl Institutions
Multilateral cooperation objectives:
build up mechanisms to enhance
energy demands, efficiency,
technology advances with intent to
reframe an open, inclusive and
sustainable energy government at
regional, trans-regional level.
Energy BRICS was proposed to
strengthen multilateral cooperation
with emerging economies.
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
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Conclusions
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
1 There are some big gaps between new energy policies witnessed
and studied and our EES scenario, which leaves a set of questions to
be answered in the coming five years.
2 The year 2020 will be critical milestone for energy transformation in
China before its moving to next one/new heights aiming at
sustainable development. We believe this milestone 2020 could be
the last chance to the country to build up its well-off society as
expected.
3 Obviously, there are new requirements and efforts deserved to come
to deal with shortages and laggards and pave way ahead in policy
making from EES scenario points in the 2nd half 2015 and 2016 (we
are closely watching, investigating and advising)
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Top 10 Outstanding Issues
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
① Coal fired generation <50% while coal used for power >50%
② Oil demand and its substitution prospects
③ Gas “supply surplus” and utilization
④ Nuclear issues (size, growth rate and inland deployment)
⑤ Wind and solar power utilized
⑥ Continue to build up energy storage capacity
⑦ Intra-regional power grid connections
⑧ Near zero emission and its economics
⑨ Near zero emission and energy savings
⑩ Urbanization and energy services
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Advices
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
1. For Policy makers - Policy refocus, enhancement in line with
governmentally smarter role together with integration, inclusiveness and
implementation are advised
2. For the Industry – We encourage the industry to be more open and resilient
to market competition and upgrade energy supply oriented strategy towards
energy services oriented strategy (indicating the importance of stability of
supply, public acceptance, fairly accessible, more mobile facilities, smarter
grid, and inclusive development).
3. For the public: A direct dialogue between the public, industry and the
government is required and indispensible because joint efforts for better
energy services, energy saving and emission reduction are imperative to
unlock the benefits of the energy transformation worldwide.
4. For the rest of the world: A better understanding of Chinese energy policy
deserves not only high level dialogues but also an exchange of data, analysis
along with the outlook like today we’ve attempted.
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
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Thanks & Closer Cooperation
| Xiaojie Xu | China Energy Outlook|xuoffice@vip.sina.com|
Thanks for your listening
Thanks to IEEJ plus Mr. Masuda Tatsuo for your
invitation and arrangements.
We are seeking a closer cooperation with IEEJ on the
energy outlook program.
We are also seeking closer cooperation under the flag of
CICA energy security roundtable panel I chair as well.
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June 5th 2015 Tokyo
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Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp