pathways to the future !

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Claire Heffernan c.l.heffernan@reading.ac.uk

STAR-IDAZ: Infectious Diseases of Animals/Zoonosis: a global foresight exercise

17 – 20 June, 2014

Moscow, Russia

• a probable future: predictive scenarios

• a possible future: explorative scenarios

• a preferable future: normative scenarios

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The distinguishing characteristic of backcasting is…explicitly normative, involving working backwards from a particular desirable future end-point to the present…to determine the physical feasibility of that future and what policy measures [are] required. (Robinson,1996)

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backcasting

• the vision?

• impediments vs. enablers?

• pathways to meet the vision?

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the oracle of delphi

‘new thought’ movement

• late 19th and early 20th century

• positive thoughts of the future

• thoughts and beliefs as cosmic entities

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global health alliances

• the research-base

• beliefs about outcomes

• collective action: funding and political will

Sustainable livestock production, with healthy animals reared under high welfare standards, disease outbreaks minimised or rapidly contained, ensuring a safe and secure food supply.

Madrid: the vision

sustainability

• a value rather than a context

• notions change over time

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barriers

Panzootics

Social Forces

Resource Scarcity

Animal Health

Cost of Control

Disease Reservoirs

Feed/Food Conflict

Sector Sustainability

Lack of IndicatorsLand Use Change

Surveillance

Pathogen Evolution

Water Availability

Cost of Energy

Farm Sizes

Feed ImportsSubsidies

War/Famine

Activists Lack of WTP

Vested Interest

Lack of Public Awareness

Pollution

EU Expansion

enablers

PolicyNetworks/Approaches

Investment Trade

PP partnerships

ControlDisease

CAP

Research Social

One Health

Systems

Harmonisation

Traceability

Technologies

Education

Science

research & capacity building

Research to alleviate !barriers

Research to optimise !enablers

Collection, harmonisation, utilisation of existing data!Greater investment in research networks!Improving traceability/surveillance!Increase knowledge of the environmental drivers that we can control and manage.! !

Greater investment in research networks

Surveillance, early detection and early warning!Better understanding of public perception, decision-making!Increase knowledge of the environmental drivers!Water quality

Optimising traceability & surveillance networks

Vector control !Monitoring of vector population!Genetics of resistance of host/ resistance of local breeds!Low cost diagnostics and diagnostic platforms, pen-side test !Health implications of alternative feeds! !Optimal environmental conditions for control of pathogens such as campylobacter.!Coherent integrated farm energy supply/management, optimal balance between energy use and energy production

the new vision

• animal disease minimised or rapidly contained ensuring a safe and secure food supply

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the approach

1. What elements are different between our vision and today?

2. What are the steps needed to meet this vision?

3. What is the knowledge/research required to meet this vision?

the present vs. the future

changes required:

• to the economic/social/environmental context?

• to the ‘knowledge’ environment?

• to the policy environment?

the steps

• creating a time-line

• identifying key events

• barriers vs. enablers

• quick scanning the research required

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the time-line

2014 2050?changing consumer demand

resource scarcity

rise in global temperature

increase in EIDs

decline in global

livestock population

artificial milk/meat

barriers and enablers

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Barriers&

Enablers&

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scanning: research & capacity

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• livestock vs. non-livestock-related

• blue-sky (basic) vs. applied

• knowledge-sharing networks

• specific to the time-line events/region

outcomes1. define key factors that will support or

inhibit our vision of sustainable disease control/livestock production.

2. identify key areas of research/capacity/building/knowledge transfer to support the vision going into the future

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