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AVL India Seminar May 2018

Overcoming BS6 & RDE Challenges

with 2020 getting Closer

Introduction Michael Muehloegger

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Challenges for Future Powertrains

AffordabilityAffordability

Short Term Long Term

CO2 FleetCO2 Fleet

Comprehensive

Sustainability

Comprehensive

SustainabilityNew MobilityNew Mobility

Mid Term

Zero Impact Emission

Zero Impact Emission

LifecycleAssessment

LifecycleAssessment

Local ImissionLocal Imission

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Fundamental Change in Emission Compliance

Traditional Test Cycles Traditional Test Cycles

RDE Real Driving

Emission

RDE Real Driving

Emission

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• April 1, 2020, BS VI/6 standards in force. From April 1, 2023, including real world driving for Light Duty Vehicles (AECC Sep. 2016).

• 2020, Bharat Stage IV (PM) and from 2024 (not 2023) BS V (PM & PN) Non Road „Tractor & Construction Engine“ Emission Standards

• New Fuel Consumption Standards for Heavy Duty Vehicles in India with 2 steps, Phase 1 from April 1, 2018 and Phase 2 from April 1, 2021 (DN Dec 2017, p23).

• OBD for PC and HD was introduced in 2010 BS IV, update for BS VI in 2020. OBD for 2- and 3- wheelers will be required for the first time from 2020 (DN March

2018, p13).

• On 17 February 2018, India’s Department of Heavy Industry released a draft National Auto Policy for public comment on adoption of a long-term roadmap for emission standards beyond Bharat Stage VI that harmonize with the best global standards by 2028 (AECC Feb 2018 p9/10).

New Legislation Steps INDIA

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2015 2020 2025 2030

Global

Global Technology Shares – One Potential Scenario

An

nu

al P

rod

uct

ion

Vo

lum

e (

Glo

bal)

–M

io

AVL Prediction 03/2018Scenario ”Medium”

BEV

ICE

FCEV

ICE PHEV

ICE only

ICE (M)HEV

BEV

FCEV

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Powertrain CompetitionObstacles of Individual Technologies

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Internal Combustion Engine – Challenges

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e.g. extended 48V systems (2030 kW)as enabler for low emission & CO2

Mild Hybrid Mild Hybrid

Technology Trends - Spark Ignition Engines

Miller,Atkinson

Spark IgnitedSpark Ignited

Extended Miller,Advanced Boosting

today VCR, HCCI, UHP, .....

HCCI.. Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition VCR Variable Compression Ratio, UHP .Ultra High Injection Pressure

tomorrow

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e.g. extended 48V systems (2030 kW)as enabler for low emission & CO2

Mild Hybrid Mild Hybrid Compression

Ignited (Diesel)

Advanced EAS & Temperature Management, Refined

Operation Strategies

today tomorrow

Lean NOx Trap + SCR

Technology Trends – Diesel Engines

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• Synthetic fuels do not meet todays specifications

• Costs: Utilize advantages on local resources

• Simple storage and transport

• Utilization of existing infrastructure

• Re-use of established powertrain concepts

• Low CO2 footprint

Advantages

Challenges

Synthetic Fuels

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Battery Electric Powertrain - Challenges

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Development of Battery Cell Costs

0

100

200

300

400

2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025

Price in $/kWh on cell level*

*Source: Anderman Report 2016

?

145 $/kWh

100 $/kWh

250 $/kWh

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Performance Prognosis of Li-Ion Cells

SOP Wh/kg Wh/L

2015 175 - 225 400 - 5002020 225 - 275 500 - 6002025 275 - 350 600 - 750

Data of AVL Series Battery Benchmark program

Power Densities of Batteries

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Source: AVL, Strategy Engineers, Audi, bimmertoday

85 kW 150 kW3,6 kW 50 kW 350 kW250 kW20 kW

At home / at work Parking Long distance

Charging = Refueling

24 hours

167 min

80 min

50 min

29 min17 min 12 min

Today

Target<10 min

Required charging time for 400 km

Required Charging Time for 400 km Range

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Fuel Cell Powertrain - Challenges

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Range Impact on Vehicle Weight

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Veh

icle

Weig

ht

-kg

Range - km

Fuel Cell Battery Electric

GM Bolt 1624kg520km*

Toyota Mirai1850kg500km*

*NEDC Range

BEV

FCEV

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Powertrain Competition

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ICE

One possible

Technology

Scenario

EUROPE

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Conclusions

• Transition to RDE is much more effective than lowering thecertification values on the chassis dynamometer

• Dramatic pollutant reduction by EU6d vehicles not sufficientlyacknowleged

• ICE will meet EU6dfinal even w/o Hybridization

• With Hybridization, ICE has “Zero Impact Emission” potential

• Synergies between ICE and Electrification enable the ICE toovercome shortfalls regarding pollutants and CO2 emission andprovides long term competitiveness of the ICE !

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