Auto Evolution in the 21st CenturyKen Welles, May 19, 2010

http://www.bornrich.org/entry/worlds-fastest-battery-powered-car-speeds-at-122kmh/

http://www.whatiamupto.com/gasification/woodgastruck.html

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2008/07/laugh-at-high-g/

12 year old CRV – 25 MPG

Full Disclosure – What I Drive10 year old F150 – 15 MPG

10 year old F150With 5th wheel – 10 MPG

20 year old MF-50 – 50 yd3/G

Auto Evolution in the 21st Century

CAUSED BY

•Fuel Prices Gasoline, alternate fuels

•GovernmentMPG Standards, Tax Credits

•EconomyBoom-SUV, Bust-Used Cars

•Governmentnot predictable

•Economynot predictable

•Gasoline Prices Long Term Increase

Fuel Prices will be the Major Influence

•Peak OilFuture gasoline output will decline

•Competition For FuelChina, India

•“Global Warming”CO2 taxes

SOLID Wood Chips, Charcoal, Sawdust

LIQUIDDiesel, Gasoline, Ethanol, Methanol, Biodiesel, Syn-Fuel

GASHydrogen, Methane (NG), Ethane, Propane, Butane

ELECTRICBatteries – Lead-Acid, NiCad, NiMH, Lithium

NuclearFission, Fusion, Heat Engine

MixtureHybrid, Flex Fuel

What Will Future Fuel Be?

SOLID Wood Chips, Charcoal, Sawdust

LIQUIDDiesel, Gasoline, Ethanol, Methanol, Biodiesel, Syn-Fuel

GASHydrogen, Methane (NG), Ethane, Propane, Butane

ELECTRICBatteries – Lead-Acid, NiCad, MiMH, Lithium

NuclearFission, Fusion, Heat Engine

MixtureHybrid, Flex Fuel

What Will Future Fuel Be?

Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Flex Fuel•Diesel•NG (Honda Civic GX)

Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)

EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

H2 Fuel Cell Vehicle (Addendum)Rapid TransitFlying CarsTeleportation

Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Diesel •Flex Fuel•NG (Honda Civic GX)

Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)

EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

Wired magazine “Laugh at High Gas Prices With a 235-MPG VW”

What can you do with a “normal” car

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2008/07/laugh-at-high-g/

The car has anti-lock brakes, stability control and airbags. $30-40k.

What is the cheap solution?

Kia Rio $11,495 31 mpg

http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/cheap-fuel-efficient-cars-471207#ixzz0hKwVPNVb

Smart ForTwo $11,990 36 mpg

Toyota Yaris $12,355 32 mpg. Hyundai Accent $13,645 31 mpg

Toyota Prius $22,800 50 mpg.

Compare to $12,800 32 mpg car.

$4.00 gasoline, About 225,000 miles to the break even point$6.00 gasoline, About 150,000 miles to the break even point$8.00 gasoline, About 110,000 miles to the break even point

Toyota Prius $22,800 50 mpg.

How do we compare costs of Gasoline Cars vs. Other Fuels?

GGE Gallon of Gasoline Equivalent

1 gallon gasoline = 115,000 BTU = 33 kWh (6.1 lbs)1 gge0.88 gallon diesel (6.0 lbs) 1 gge1.50 gallon ethanol (9.9 lbs) 1 gge127 cubic feet (STP) natural gas (5.7 lbs, 950 gal) 1 gge9 kWh available electricity (130 lbs, 8 gal) * 1 gge178 cubic feet (STP) Hydrogen (1 lb, 1330 gal) ** 1 gge

GGE – Gallon of Gasoline EquivalenceWhen used in a car

* Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile, compare to 30 mpg petrol car 1 gallon petrol = 9 kWh

** with 60% eff. Fuel cell, (357 cubic feet for internal combustion)

13.2 gallons @ 30 mpg ~ 400 miles range

13.2 gallons gasoline~ 100 lbs

20 gallons ethanol~ 150 lbs

55 gallons compressed NG~ 250 lbs (mostly tank weight) http://www.ewsews.com/cngprices.html

105 gallons Lithium Batteries~ 2,000 lbs

250 gallons Prius Batteries~ 14,000 lbs

 

What is a gallon of gasoline worth to me?

Going for a Sunday drive to nowhere $2.00 Running Errands at random $3.00 Driving to work $4.00 Mowing my lawn $10.00 Using my chain saw and lumber mill $20.00 Running my generator in power outage $25-$50 (Summer-Winter)

We will NEVER run out of gasoline!!!

(We WILL run out of cheap gasoline)

Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Diesel•Flex Fuel•NG (Honda Civic GX)

Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)

EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

EPA standards mandate a series of Tiers for diesel emissions

We are now in Tier 3, Tier 4 is coming

To meet these standards, exhaust systems are VERY expensive

You have an extra tank of urea solution for injection into exhaust

Worth it for big trucks

Costs too much for cars

Gasoline is more cost effective in reducing petroleum use

http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/clean_vehicles/dieseldilemma_exsum.pdf

Diesel: Good for trucks. Bad for cars

Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Diesel•Flex Fuel•NG (Honda Civic GX)

Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)

EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

Ethanol-Gasoline Mixtures

Corn Ethanol – Bad IdeaInefficient, and competing for foodOnly useful now because of subsidies, mandates

Cellulosic Ethanol/Methanol – Poor IdeaMade from plant waste, switch grass, corn stoverCompetes for arable landOK for micro-business, self-sustenance

LIQUID SYN-FUELEnergy source Coal Natural Gas Bio-waste Engineered Algae Energy crops

If done cheaply, could displace all NG cars

Process Fischer-Tropsch Transesterification Pyrolysis Fermentation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_fuel

Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Diesel•Flex Fuel•NG (Honda Civic GX)

Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)

EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

Honda Civic Model GX (Natural Gas) DX (Gasoline) Natural Gas Car is:Base Price $25,190 $17,765 $7,425 (42%) more Engine Type In-Line 4-CylinderEngine Block/Cylinder Head Aluminum-AlloyDisplacement (cc) 1799Horsepower @ rpm (SAE net) 113 @ 6300 140 @ ? 81% HorsepowerTorque (lb-ft @ rpm) 109 @ 4300 128 @ ? 85% TorqueBore and Stroke (mm) 81 x 87.3Compression Ratio 12.5:1 10.5:1CARB Emissions Rating AT-PZEV [1] ULEV-2 Much Lower Emissions5-Speed Auto Transmission Standard AvailableFront Disc/Rear Drum (in.) 11.1 / 8.7 10.3 / 7.9 Cargo Volume (cu. ft.) 6.0 12.0 50% trunk spaceCurb Weight (lbs) 2910 2692 218 lbs (8%) heavierWeight Distribution (%, f/r) 59 / 41 61 / 39 ~70 lbs engine, ~150 lbs tank5-Spd Auto (City/Hway/Comb) 24 / 36 / 28 (GGE*) 25 / 36 / 29 About the same mileageFuel (gal.) 8.03 GGE @ 3600psi 13.2 Combined Range 90% of tank 202 miles 345 miles 59% range (143 miles less)Required Fuel CNG Regular Unleaded

NG – Gas Car Comparison: Honda Civic

Honda websites of Civic DX and Civic Gx

NG – Gas Car Comparison: Honda Civic

Going from a Gasoline car to a NG car you have:

40% higher price40% less range per fill-up50% less trunk room20% less acceleration< $2.00 / gallon gasoline equivalent

200,000 miles payback at $3/gal gasoline100,000 miles payback at $4/gal gasoline

Honda websites of Civic DX and Civic Gx

Clean Energy - NYS DOT23008 Chrisler Avenue ExitRotterdam, NY 12303Phone: 781-685-4857Fuel: Compressed Natural GasAccess: Public - card key at all times Office of General Services - NYSMcCarty Avenue and Route 9 W Southern BoulevardAlbany, NY 12209Phone: 518-473-6594 8Fuel: Compressed Natural GasAccess: Public - card key at all times

Can I pump Natural Gas Locally?Yes! Albany & Schenectady

The pump is a (minor) engineering problem

Phill used 10¢ electricity / GGE

Phill went bankrupt

Phill ~$1,000 / year to maintain~ $0.50-$1.00 / GGE

Can I pump Natural Gas at home?Maybe…

Assume 100% NG vehicle penetration

NG refueled from the home line, 8pm – 6am,

Assume 33 miles average use per day (12,000 mi/yr), 4.5 ft3 / mile

About 150 ft3 NG / day for the car

Average US house = 260 ft3 NG / day

Yes - we add 50-100% NG volume

Will Home Refueling of NG cars Require a new pipelines?

SynFuelNo new pipelinesUse existing Gas StationsNo change to carsCan also use Coal, Biomass

Many $$$ SynFuel plants

NG for SynFuel or NG cars?

NG CarsNo SynFuel plantsOvernight Home Refueling

Cars cost moreCars don’t go as farNeed new gas lines everywhereRefit 100,000 gas stations

My Opinion: SynFuels will win

Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Flex Fuel•Diesel•NG (Honda Civic GX)

Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)

EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

HYBRIDS

•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Engine off at stop lights•Start engine and car•Store about 1-2 brake cycles

•Full (Prius)•Drive electric only > 1 mile•Electric only at low speed•Store long downhill energy

•Plug in (Prius+)•Drive electric only > 20 miles•Use IC engine to extend range indefinitely•IC engine drives the wheels directly

50 mpg, well engineered, affordableThis is a young/mature technology

This uses a 110 lb NiMH batteryReplacement cost $3,000275 Volts, 1.3 kWh 1.1 pint gasoline, 3-4 miles travel (100% depletion)

All energy used is from Gasoline

Full Hybrids - Prius

To go 40 miles (PHEV40), need ~15x energy storage

1600 lb battery costing $25,000 - $35,000

Therefore PHEV requires a different kind of battery

That battery is the Lithium Ion battery

PRIUS PHEV, using same battery

Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Flex Fuel•Diesel•NG (Honda Civic GX)

Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)

EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

Like a Hybrid with a BIG battery

Plug it in overnight to charge the battery

Run as far as you can on battery

Then start using the gasoline engine as a normal hybrid

PHEV20 can go 20 miles on electric only

Infinite gas mileage on days you go less than 20 miles

If you go 40 miles every day, you get 100 mpg

Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Basics

Your gas mileage gets better with bigger batteries

But

Your electric bill goes up as gasoline costs go down

PHEV has enormous potential gas mileage

http://www.epa.gov/oppt/nano/p2docs/casestudy3_chiang.pdf

PHEV 40, with 90% of charging done 8pm – 6am, 100% penetration

At 300 Wh / mile, 12 kWh of energy for a full recharge

1.2 kW charge rate required, well below the 2-3 kW peak power demand per house.

Efficient use of off peak power, wind powerInefficient use of solar power

Raises the base load, possibly lowers the peaking load.

NO not if we charge at night

Will Home Recharging of PHEVsRequire a new powerlines?

RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES – The Electricity Cost

Compare to 30 mpg car Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile30 miles @ 0.3 kWh / mile = 9 kWh1 Gallon Gasoline = 9 kWh9 kWh @ $0.15 = $1.35

$1.35 electricity = 1 Gallon Gasoline

RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES – The Hidden Cost

Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile, compare to 30 mpg1 gallon petrol = 9 kWh @ $0.15 = $1.35 / gge cost of electricity

Battery Life: 400–1000 cycles (think laptop batteries)

New batteries ~$1 / Wh A 1 kWh battery is about $1,000

Battery lasts 1,000 cycles, that’s $1 / kWh stored 1 gallon petrol = 9kWh stored9 kWh * $1 / kWh stored = $9.00 / gge wear on the battery!!!!!

Our cost = $1.35 electricity + $9.00 wear = $10.35

Today’s batteries cost us $10.35 / GGE

RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES – The Hidden Cost

Electric cars ~ 0.3 kWh / mile, compare to 30 mpg1 gallon petrol = 9 kWh @ $0.15 = $1.35 / gge cost of electricity

Battery Life: 400–1000 deep discharges (think laptop batteries)New batteries ~$1 / Wh. A 1 kWh battery is about $1,000If the battery lasts 1,000 cycles, that’s $1 / kWh stored 1 gallon petrol = 9kWh @ $1.00 = $9.00 / gge wear on the battery!!!!!Our cost = $10.35 / gge

Cut battery cost by 50%Increase battery life by 5Total cost becomes $2.35 / GGE

What do we need?

Comparison of cars, hybrids and PHEVs

http://www.cmu.edu/me/ddl/publications/2009-EP-Shiau-Samaras-Hauffe-Michalek-PHEV-Weight-Charging.pdf

Distance Between Charges (miles)

Prius

28 MPG car

Comparison of cars, hybrids and PHEVs

http://www.cmu.edu/me/ddl/publications/2009-EP-Shiau-Samaras-Hauffe-Michalek-PHEV-Weight-Charging.pdf

Lifetime cost per mile comparisons

Ibid.

Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Flex Fuel•Diesel•NG (Honda Civic GX)

Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)

EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

Prius+

generator

motor

engine

combiner wheels

electronicsbattery

generator

motor

engine

wheelselectronicsbattery

Chevy Volt

Chevy plans on a 70 hp engine

What is the smallest engine that would work?

How much engine does the Volt need?

50 hp allows indefinite climb on a 6% grade at 68 mph

70 hp

http://images.thetruthaboutcars.com/2008/05/ev-performance-simulation.pdf

The Volt doesn’t need a rotating engine

Linear GeneratorsMicroturbines

The Volt doesn’t need a rotating engine

Linear GeneratorsMicroturbines

Choices for this talkIC-engine only•Gasoline•Flex Fuel•Diesel•NG (Honda Civic GX)

Hybrids•Mild (Chevy Malibu)•Full (Prius)•Plug in (Prius+)

EV (Electric Vehicle)•On Board IC generator (Chevy Volt)•Battery Only (Subaru R1e- Tesla Roadster)

OK to run short errands

No good for long distances

Refill gasoline or NG tanks in ~5 minutes

Recharge batteries in 30 minutes to many hours

Fast charging damages batteries

Battery Only Cars

Not likely:

DieselMild HybridsBattery Only

Fuel Cell

CONCLUSIONS

Slightly reduced Oil supplySlightly increased NG supply

Small Gasoline CarsHybrids PHEV

CONCLUSIONS

Greatly reduced Oil supplyGreatly increased NG supply

Natural Gas carsPHEV

Synfuel

CONCLUSIONS

Greatly reduced Oil supplyGreatly increased Electric supply

PHEVSynfuel

CONCLUSIONS

Economic Depression

Small Gasoline Cars

CONCLUSIONS

Big CO2 Taxes

Small gasoline carsPHEV

Biofuels

CONCLUSIONS

Poor Lithium Battery Progress

HybridsNatural Gas Cars

CONCLUSIONS

Slow decrease in Oil supplySlow increase in NG supply

Coal power NG powerCO2 Sequestration Fails

Anthro Climate Change AcceptedLithium Battery ProgressEconomic NG Synfuels

HybridsPHEV

Synfuels replace Corn Ethanol

My Best Guess next 20 years

Big decrease in Oil supplyBig increase in NG supply

Widespread SynFuels/BioFuelsBig CO2 taxes

PHEV like VOLT

My Best Guess 20-50 years

Thanks for Listening

COMIC RELIEF (maybe)

http://mediagallery.usatoday.com/Editorial-Cartoons/G373,S89401

Addendum: How to Solar Power a Car?

Where do you get the fuel?•Reforming natural gas•Electrolysis of water

NO CO2

AddendumWhy are H2 Fuel Cell Cars a bad idea?

Where do you get the fuel?•Reforming natural gas

But this throws energy away. Use the same natural gas in a NG HybridEven a NG regular car uses less NG per mile and costs much less

AddendumWhy are H2 Fuel Cell Cars a bad idea?

Where do you get the fuel?•Reforming natural gas•Electrolysis of water

Very energy inefficient. Electrolysis is ~60% percent efficient in volumeFuel Cell is 60% efficient in H2 e-Overall 36% conversion efficiencyBatteries are 80%-90% efficient use of e-

AddendumWhy are H2 Fuel Cell Cars a bad idea?

Where do you get the fuel?•Reforming natural gas•Electrolysis of waterNO CO2Only true if you make H2 by electrolysis.Only true if electricity comes from nuclear, wind, solar, etc.For the next 50 years, use any new green electricity to close coal plants.After you close all the coal plants, close all the NG power plants.

AddendumWhy are H2 Fuel Cell Cars a bad idea?

Requires 3 major breakthroughs & big, new infrastructure

1) Develop a cheap, efficient, small H2 storage method (metal hydride?)2) Invent a solar powered H2 source (engineered algae?)3) Elimination of CO2 as a problem for the world (H2 power plants?)4) Deploy an H2 infrastructure (H2 is difficult to pipeline)

3 major breakthroughs is unlikely.

AddendumWhat would make fuel cells a contender?

Addendum - Solid Fuel for Cars?

Woodgas – Steam reform pyrolizing wood, Burn the H2, CO gas in your modified gasoline engine

http://www.whatiamupto.com/gasification/woodgastruck.html

http://www.scificool.com/the-truth-about-eatr/

DARPA project – EATR: Energetically Autonomous Tactical Robot

Addendum - Solid Fuel for Cars?

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/05/02/business/02metrics/02metrics-popup-v3.jpg

Energy: From Where, To What