black gold

Cato Institute | National Security Implications of New Oil and Gas Production Technologies | May 1, 2015

Solow (1957)

“The region which is now threatened by Soviet troops in Afghanistan is of great strategic importance: It contains more than two-thirds of the world's exportable oil… “Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.”

—President Jimmy Carter, January 23, 1980

“For the sake of our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as

dependence on semiconductors from Asia. “Senator Barack Obama, August 29, 2008

“For the sake of our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as

dependence on potatoes from Canada. “Senator Barack Obama, August 29, 2008

“For the sake of our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as

dependence on grapes from the Chile. “Senator Barack Obama, August 29, 2008

“For the sake of our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as

dependence on oil from the Middle East. “Senator Barack Obama, August 29, 2008

“[U.S.] imports have decreased substantially, reducing the funds we send overseas [and] reducing our vulnerability to global supply disruption and price shocks.”

—2015 National Security Strategy of the United States

“Spikes in oil prices are correlated with recessions in the United States …”

—Gholz, National Security Implications of Unconventional Oil and Gas Production Technologies, p. 7

Oil

?

!

“I am today ordering a freeze on all prices and wages throughout the United States for a period of 90 days.”President Richard Nixon, August 15, 1971

Oil Production, Thousand barrels daily, 1977-2013

Iran-Iraq War

!"

1000"

2000"

3000"

4000"

5000"

6000"

1977

"19

79"

1981

"19

83"

1985

"19

87"

1989

"19

91"

1993

"19

95"

1997

"19

99"

2001

"20

03"

2005

"20

07"

2009

"20

11"

2013

"

Canada"Iran"Iraq"Norway"

*

*MEEIMNE

USA

output

inputs

production recipe

auerswald@gmu.edu | auerswald.org