ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge

ASES Forum

Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and Renewable Energy

Thursday 10:30am to 12:00pm

Ron Swenson

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Swenson’s Law

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Roscoe Bartlett

“It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term. However, in the long term, this will be impossible. For one thing, it will hasten the exhaustion of other finite resources. That will make the inevitable transition to renewable sources more difficult and more painful.”

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Energy Scoreboard

Primary challenges are:

• EROEI

• Global Warming

• Scalability

• Timing

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Why leave out Economics?

• Economics is an instrument of policy.

• It’s the last step in the process:–First figure out what works…–Then create incentives.

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

EROEI

• Energy Returned On Energy Invested

• ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

EROEI for PV• EPBT: 5 years

• Life: 50 years

• Plus it can be bootstrapped

EROEI = 1030 ~ electric

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

EROEI for Thin Film PV

• EPBT: 6 months

• Life: 20 years

EROEI = 40120 ~electric

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

EROEI for Wind• EPBT: 3 months

• Life: 20 years

EROEI = 80240 ~ electric

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Global Warming

• Thanks to Al Gore, I can keep this short!

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Atmospheric CO2

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse

• Feb-Mar 2002 • In about 35

days• Larger than

Rhode Island• Totally baffled

scientists• 1 down, 4 to go

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

EROEI for Tar Sands

Plus…• Ravaged land• Water contamination• Extraction uses

natural gas

• Low EROEI → Greenhouse gasesEROEI = 3?

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

EROEI = 4 12 ~ electric

EROEI for NuclearPlus …

• Terrorism

• Waste guarded for 10,000+ years

• Depletion → low grade ores →

Greenhouse gases

… How do we value a 1,000+ year wasteland?

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

EROEI for Hydrogen

Am I missing something?!

EROEI = -½

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ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Scalability

Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)

178,000

Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000

Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000

Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000

Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100

Total Energy Used by Human Society 13

Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5

Total Human Food Energy 0.6

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Renewable EnergySolar

1.2 x 105 TW at Earth surface

600 TW practicalBiomass5-7 TW gross

all cultivatab

le land not used

for foodHydroelectricGeotherma

l

Wind2-4 TW

extractable

4.6 TW gross1.6 TW technically feasible0.9 TW economically feasible0.6 TW installed capacity

12 TW gross over landsmall fraction recoverable

Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

There is no SilverSilver Bullet.Why SilverSilver in the first place? • The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize

that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted.

• Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35• Specific gravity of AgAg = 10.50AgAgAgAg

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

There is no AgAg Bullet.

• Now I think I follow what you mean.

Let’s find out why….

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Corn Ethanol

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Corn Ethanol• Energy content 75% from fossil fuels:

– Coal (electricity) > 40%– Natural gas (to heat mash) > 30%– Not to mention fertilizer, tractor & truck fuel

• Photosynthesis 5- 26% • Depletes soil and water supplies • Competes with food resources• Not carbon-neutral

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Sugar Cane Ethanol (Brazil)

• Meets 40% of demand

• Brazil per capita use is 10% of US • 40% x 10% = 4%

• Many sugar cane workers are slaves

• Produces aldehydes in exhaust

• Soil and water conditions very different

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Cellulosic Ethanol …Photosynthesis:Sunlight ~ 0.25%

Photosynthesis:PV (or STE) ~ 0.5% - 2%

USA: PV on all paved land

0.1 m km2

~ 11 Gb/yr

(150%)

USA: Cellulose from all forests

3 m km2

~ 6 Gb/yr

(80%)

USA: Cellulose from all ag land 1.5 m km2

~ 3 Gb/yr

(40%)

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Cellulosic Ethanol

“All we need to do is change the make-up of ~25% of present wooded land space.”

Land to achieve 30 Gb/yr 15 m km2

Global forests 40 m km2

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Forest Facts

• Forests cover just under 4 billion hectares, 40 million km2 or 30% of the total land area

• Global deforestation – 13 million hectares

• Net loss of forests – 7.3 million hectares

• 36% of the forest area has had little or no human impact

• Area of forest plantations 140 million hectares and increasing by 2.8 million hectares/year

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Without Cellulosic Ethanol

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If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.

Van Buren 18328th President 1837-1841

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Ethanol Scorecard

EROEI DGlobal Warming DScalability D+Timing C+

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But renewables make electricity, not liquid fuels!?• How do we handle transportation after

peak oil?

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ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Timing

• Application Technology: PRT

• Note distinction between application technology and generation technology.

• In relationship to peak oil and climate change, uses of energy are as critical as sources of energy.

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Freeway at Capacity

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Vehicles Removed

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PRT Passengers

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PRT System

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Solar PRT

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Solar PRT • 10 kw @ 100 mph

• 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second interval • 360 kw needed in a mile stretch • 68 watts / lineal ft per lane at peak sun

• 10 hrs peak operation, 5 hrs sun • 720 kw / mile • 8.3 ft wide solar panel at full capacity

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Solar PRT Capacity• Skytran: Two people every second

– 7,200 passengers per hour– 72,000 passengers per day

• Rail: – About 8,000 passengers per hour– 60,000 passengers per day – Washington, DC ~ 41,000 pass-mile / route-mile

• Highway: 1.2 average occupancy– 2400 persons per lane / hour

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Solar PRT Scorecard

EROEI AGlobal Warming AScalability B-Timing D+

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

PV: The Growth Industry

OilOil

PVPV

Oil declines at 4%/yr(?)

PV increases at 50%/yr

?

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006

Wake Up!!!

ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006