Post on 07-Jan-2016
description
Arkes et al. (1981)
Doctors given a case history to read
Is it disease A or disease B?
Group 1 - told nothing about real diagnosis
Group 2 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease A
Group 3 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease B
Result: probability estimates were higher for
“correct” diagnosis
So: Hindsight Bias
•Hindsight bias happens when you warn people
to avoid it
•It does not happen when subjects don’t believe
the outcome information