ARIZONA: HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS

Community Development ResearchFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

June 2013

National Trends

7%11%

16%

8%

15%

8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

12%

10%

15%

9%

10%

8%15% 13%

3%7%

22% 19%

8%

19%7%

12%6%

5%

13% 8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Short Sale

Move-In Ready REO

Damaged REO

Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions—April 20133 Month Moving Average

Perc

ento

f Tot

al T

rans

actio

ns

Composition of distressed sales by geography

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2013

Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2013

18%

33% 29%

50%19%

48%

35%

37%63%

18%

35%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

DamagedREO

Move-In ReadyREO

Short Sale Non-Distressed

Current Homeowner First-Time Homebuyer Investor

Perc

ent

of P

rope

rty

Type

Who Is Buying Properties?─April 20133 Month Moving Average

Financing for home purchases

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2013

26%

11%

76%18% 47%

2%

22%

14%

6%

5%7%

29%21%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors

All Other Financing

VA

Fannie/Freddie

FHA

Cash

Perc

ent

of B

uyer

-Sid

e Tr

ansa

ctio

ns

Financing for Homebuyers ─ April 20133 Month Moving Average

Arizona Trends

Arizona’s unemployment rate slightly higher than U.S. at 7.9 percent

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Recession

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(%)

United States

Arizona

Arizona house prices continue to rise

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x20

00=

100

90

140

190

240

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly)

United States

Arizona

House prices improving in most major metros

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x20

00=

100

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index(2000 = 100)

Tucson

Yuma

Flagstaff

Phoenix-Mesa

Number of delinquent mortgages and properties in foreclosure process continues to fall

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Num

ber

of M

ortg

ages

Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due

AZ consumer debt delinquency rate above U.S. average

0%

4%

8%

12%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Consumer Debt Delinquency Rate

U.S.

Arizona

Note: Delinquency status of 90+ days past due or worse.  Excludes first mortgage. Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel

Asking rent continues to increase as vacancy rate falls in Phoenix

0%

5%

10%

15%

$710

$740

$770

$800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Vacancy RateA

skin

g Re

nt

Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in PhoenixQuarterly

Asking Rent Vacancy Rate

Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.

Tucson rents up; vacancy rate stable around 6%

0%

6%

12%

$610

$640

$670

$700

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Vacancy Rate

Ask

ing

Rent

Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in TucsonQuarterly

Asking Rent Vacancy Rate

Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.

Arizona Data Maps

Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresApril 2013

Arizona Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Areas At Risk Of Additional ForeclosuresApril 2013

Arizona Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Phoenix Data Maps

Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresApril 2013

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Phoenix Data Maps

Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresApril 2013

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Oregon Data MapsTucson Area Data Maps

Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresApril 2013

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresApril 2013

Tucson Area Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Conclusions

For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website

Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies

All publications, presentations available on our website

Conference materials also posted shortly after events

http://www.frbsf.org/community/