Post on 14-Dec-2015
Are we ready for REDD? Multidimensional policies for reducing Amazon deforestation: 2001-2010
Gilberto CâmaraDirector, National Institute for Space ResearchBrazil
http://www.dpi.inpe.br/gilberto
Brazil-MIT Forum 2011, Boston (USA)
Best environmental monitoring
46% of energy is renewable
Brazil: a natural knowledge economyBest technology in biofuels
World leader in tropical agriculture
Agriculture
Energy
Ecosystems
Climate change
Weather and natural disasters
Space technology adds value to Brazil´s natural knowledge economy
Megacities
The rôle of forests in global climate
Aware that deforestation accounts for approximately 20% of annual CO2 emissions, we remain engaged in seeking the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) (G8 L’Aquila Declaration, 2009)
REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation): the concept
Payment to tropical nations for avoided deforestation as compensation for fossil fuel emissions
Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)
Deforestation is responsible for 20% of global GHG emissions (G8)
Can we base global policies on this statement?
source: Global Land Project (2010)
Land change < 10% of total GHG emissions in 2010
CO2 e
mis
sion
s (P
gC y
-1)
Fossil fuel
Land use change
10
8
6
4
2
1960 20101970 1990 20001980
Global GHG emissions
Reduction from 27,000 km2 to 6,500 km2 in 5 yearsGovernance + markets + technology >> REDD+
Reducing deforestation in Amazonia
Monitoring Deforestation in AmazoniaCBERS image
Science (27 April 2007): “Brazil´s monitoring system is the envy of the world”.
DeforestationDegradation
~230 scenes Landsat/year
Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas
Clear-cut deforestation mapping
“By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation by 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula in Copenhagen COP-15)
Stern report: REDD is cheap
Payments limited to endangered areasEach agent is compensated by opportunity cost
REDD scenario: avoiding emissions by paying current opportunity costs
Economic failure, ecological failure (Costa, 2009)
Non-REDD scenario: avoiding emissions by conversion of productive activities
Economic growth, ecological success (Costa, 2009)
Market impact of deforestation reduction in Brazil
EU-15 reduction 2005-202020% of 1990 levels
Avoided def Brazil 2005-2020
From 2005 to 2020, avoided deforestation by Brazil would be 2/3 of the total proposed EU-15 cuts
7,7 Gt CO2eq4,9 Gt CO2eq
Will REDD create self-defeating outcomes?
‘We have a resource we would like to get money for. Either you pay us for biodiversity services or we will sell the forest to Malaysian logging companies.’ (Guyana government officer)