Are better educated migrants returning? Evidence from multi‐dimensional

education data

Tiit Tammaru, Enel Pungas, Ott Toomet

University of Tarty

Department of Geography

NORCACE seminar11-13 April 2012, University of Waikato, New Zealand

This study was financially supported by European Social FundEstonian Science Foundation

Motivation

Increased East-West migration in Europe Issues related to „brain-drain“ and „brain

gain“ in the focus of debates Studies mainly based on level of education

Literature review on education and return

migration Background of the research population

Main trends of Estonian-Finland migration Characteristics of Estonian migrants in Finland

Intentions of return migration by education Discussion

Presentation outline

Literature review: Education and return migration

Relationship between the level of education and return migration

Less educated return (DaVanzo and Morrison 1981; Reyes 1997; Massey & Espinoza 1997; Curran & Rivero-Fuentes 2003)

Interpretation: Return migration is a correction of a failed move to a foreign country

Relationship between the level of education and return migration

Better educated return (Reicher 2001; Constant & Massey 2003; King and Newbold 2008; Bijwaard 2010)

Interpretations: Better educated are spatially more mobile They are valued also at country of origin

especially when studyed abroad Correction of the failed move to a foreign country

Other education dimensions highlighted

in literature

Studies abroad (Borjas and Bratsberg 1996; Bijwaard 2010; Dustmann and Glitz 2011)

Over-education (Dustmann et al 2007; Kahanec 2009; Drinkwater et al 2009; Trevena 2011)

Aim of the study

To study the associations between intentions of return migration and education

Dimensions of education to be studied: level of education (3 levels) type of education (general/vocational) education country (origin/destination) perceived over-education (yes/no)

Background: Estonia-Finland migration

Case study countries

Estonia (EE) and Finland (FI) Neighbouring countries EE part of the Soviet Union 1944–1991 EE part of European Union since 2004

and eurozone since 2011 Similar languages but differences in wealth No EE diaspora in FI up until 1991

Estonian migration with Finland, 1991-2010

Source: Statistics Finland

Estonian migration with Finland, 1991–2010

Source: Statistics Finland

Immigration mainly implies return migrationImmigration ca ¼ of emigration

Size of Estonian of Estonian diaspora in Finland, 1991–2010

Source: Statistics Finland

Before 1991, almost no EE diaspora in FIIn 2011, largest EE diaspora in FIIn 2011, EE larges immigrant group in FI

Research data

Survey among EE migrants in FI

Spring 2009 1000 immigrant of EE origin living in FI Sample drawn from the FI Population Register Telephone interviews (30 min) conducted from EE Survey company Turu-uuringute AS

Results

Emigration motive

Education of EE migrants in FI

Share, %

Primary 23Secondary 50Tertiary 26

General 63Vocational 37

Overeducated 33Matched 62Undereducated 5

Studied in FI 38Not studied in FI 62

Studied in FI by age at migration

Changes in the labour market position of EE migrants in FI

Last in EE First in FI Last in FI EEManager, senior specialist 16 8 15 16

Specialist 8 8 9 8

Clerk 17 17 17 11

Skilled worker 26 29 29 22

Unskilled worker 7 25 7 7

Not working 26 13 23 36

Total 100 100 100 100

Intends to return from FI to EE

Frequency Percent

Yes 237 24Otherwise 763 76

Intention to return EE by age at migration

Intention to return EE by years lived in FI

Results of the logistic regression, odds ratios (intends to return=1, otherwise=0)

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Level of Primary 1.15

1.49

1.51

education Secondary 1

1

1

Tertiary 0.96

1.00

1.03

Type of General 1

1

1

education Vocational 1.37 * 1.41 * 1.43 *

Country of Estonia 1

1

1 education Finland 0.57 *** 1.10

1.11

Overeducation Yes 1.80 *** 1.65 ** 1.62 **

No 1

1

1

Regression continued …

Age at < 20 0.34 *** 0.35 ***migration 20-54 1 1

> 55 2.80 *** 2.85 ***

Years in 0-4 1 1Finland 5-9 0.88 0.89

10-14 0.66 0.72> 15 0.73 0.81

Ethnicity Estonian 1 1Minority 0.29 *** 0.31 ***

Partner Estonia 1 1country Finland 0.42 *** 0.43 ***

Working Yes 1 1No 0.53 *** 0.55 ***

Emigration Income 1.99 **motive Other 1

Robustness checks

Comparability problems with odds ratios across models, groups and samples (Mood 2010) Linear Probability Models were estimated Similar results were obtained

Discussion of the results

Discussion of the results

Return migration intentions by education no differences by level of education people with vocational education wish somewhat more likely to return – education too specific? FI education relates to higher return intention up until we control for age at migration Over-education elevates intentions to return – but U-shape change in the labour market position

Discussion of the results

Other important differences in return intentions EE ethnic minorities want to stay in FI, although Estonians are better integrated in FI Migrants for better income have elevated return migration intentions People out of labour force wish to stay in FI

Thank you!

Tiit.Tammaru@ut.ee

NORCACE seminar11-13 April 2012, University of Waikato, New Zealand

This study was financially supported by European Social FundEstonian Science Foundation