Anthropogenic Emission Trend Drivers, 1850-1990Global Visibility (Smoke??) Trends

GISS Carbonaceous Aerosol Trends Workshop

November 24, 2003, NYC

Rudolf Husar, CAPITA

Washington University

Atmospheric Environment 33 (1999) 3435-3444Estimating Historical Anthropogenic Global Sulfur Emission Patterns for the Period

1850-1990[1]Allen S. Lefohna,, Janja D. Husarb, Rudolf B. Husarb

Global S Emission Trend, 1850-1990

Visibility-Population Density ComparisonIn India bext and population density compare well

AVHRR satellite optical depth data over the oceans, 1988-90

MODIS AOT, 2002 MODIS Team

Features of Global Smoke Emissions

ATSR Fire Locations 1993

MISR Seasonal AOT (MISR Team)Major smoke emission regions by season

Continental Visibility data

• Surface visual range observations.

• Over 8000 stations' throughout the six continents.

• The on line data files from NCDC

• Explored: January, 1994 through October 1997.

• 1997- data available

Extinction Coefficient Contours, km-1

West Central Africa

Dec Jan Feb peak

Regular, each year

No trends ??

DJF MAM

JJA SON

MISR

Central Africa

Dec Jan Feb peak

Regular, each year

No trends ??

DJF MAM

JJA SON

MISR

Central Africa

Jun Jul Aug peak

Regular, each year

No trends

DJF MAM

JJA SON

MISR

South America

DJF MAM

JJA SONAug Sep peak

Regular + Irregular

Upward trend

MISR

South America

DJF MAM

JJA SONAug Sep peak

Regular + Irregular

Upward trend

MISR

Central America

DJF MAM

JJA SONMar Apr May peak

Regular + Irregular

Downward trend

MISR

Indochina

DJF MAM

JJA SONApr & Oct peak

Irregular

Upward trends ??

MISR

Indonesia

Apr & Oct peak

Irregular

Upward trends ??

DJF MAM

JJA SON

MISR

Central America

DJF MAM

JJA SONMar Apr May peak

Regular + Irregular

Downward trend

MISR

Central America

DJF MAM

JJA SONMar Apr May peak

Regular + Irregular

Downward trend

MISR

South America and Central Africa Extinction Coefficient

India

Dec Jan Feb peak

Regular, each year

No trends

MISR

Conclusions?

• Global fossil fuel consumption trends data are available– Require historical emission factors for carbonatious aerosols

• Satellite data provide spatial/seasonal pattern– Limited trends information over cloud-free areas– No aerosol speciation

– No info on vertical distribution

• Visibility data provide 30-40-year record– Surface concentration over continental areas only

– No speciation

– Semi quantitative