Post on 11-Feb-2017
JRC-OECD-PLACARD-Workshop
26-28 October 2016, Paris, France
Testing the Sendai indicators for “economic losses”
in Germany
Stephanie Natho
&
Annegret Thieken
University of Potsdam
Institute of Earth and Environmental Science
Hazard profile for Germany
Natural hazards in Germany
according to EM-DAT:
94 events between 1900 and 2016
Very costly:
Floods in 2002: € 11.6 bn
Floods in 2013: € 8 bn
Storm (Kyrill) in 2007: € 4.5 bn
Flash floods in 2016: € 1.2 bn (only
insured losses)
Extent and severity of flooding in June 2013
Record-breaking soil
saturation in May 2013
Source: CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis Group; revised in February 2014, pers. com. K. Schröter (GFZ)
S=75, L=45%
S: Severity index from Uhlemann, Thieken, Merz (2010) – HESS 14: 1277–1295.
Minimum requirements according to JRC and IRDR:
Human indicators for the flood of 2013
Source: Thieken et al. (2016): The flood of June 2013 in Germany: how much do we know about its
impacts? – NHESS 16: 1519-1540.
Minimum requirements according to JRC and IRDR:
Physical damage and economic indicators (2013-flood)
Events considered for
testing Sendai-Indicators
River flooding in 1999,
2002, 2005 and 2013
Flash floods in 2014
and 2016
Windstorms in 2007,
2010 and 2014
Hail storms in 1984,
2006 and 2013
Summary: Data availability
Loss = Number of damaged or destroyed structures *
average size *
unit replacement costs *
loss ratio
Number
Damaged
vs.
destroyed
Loss
ratio
Costs
per m² Average
size [m²]
Reported
loss [€]
Infra-
structure
Res.
buildings
Agri-
culture
Estimation
Derived from other data
Specific Data
Direct losses in € Billion
Agriculture
Industry
Commerce
Houses damaged
Houses destroyed
Health
Education
Roads
Sum: infrastructure
Sum
Infr
a-
str
cu
ture
Example calculation for the flood of 2002 in Saxony
Estimations for the
commercial and the
residential sector with
adapted values for
Germany are in a
reasonable order of
magnitude.
Estimates for
damage to
infrastructure are far
too low.
OpenStreetMap Name % of roads (BRD) € costs per km % of roads without Bund roads
motorway 2,7 10.000.000 0
primary 7 5.700.000 0
secondary 16,9 1.000.000 18,7
tertiary 18,4 470.000 20,3
residential 55,1 423.871 61,0
Possible approach for roads
Documented damaged road length is
distributed among road types according
to federal average
Unit costs per road type are multiplied
by the road lengths and the loss ratio.
Example Saxony 2002:
740 km of roads affected
assumed loss ratio: ca. 34%
reported costs (without roads owned by
the Federal Government): € 135 million
example 740 km roads total costs costs in %
motorway not applicable 0 0,0
primary not applicable 0 0,0
secondary 138 46.741.386 34,5
tertiary 150 23.884.977 17,7
residential 451 64.665.625 47,8
SUM 739 135.291.987
Task Force „Flash Flood Braunsbach“
Estimation of discharge
Mapping of landslides
Collection of damage to
residential buildings
Damage collection
On-site survey (KoBo-Collect)
Structural damage
Water level, flow direction
Building use and construction
type
Data for
100 buildings
Official loss reports
Repair costs buildings:
approx. € 1 million
Infrastructure costs:
approx. € 100 million
Conclusions and suggestions
With adaptations, parts of the methodology for the
economic loss indicators are applicable to Germany.
Still, many input data are not available.
Methods to estimate damage to infrastructure need more
attention.
With a newly funded DAAD-Scholarship more studies, also for
other European countries could be undertaken in 2017.
Particularly, the collection of (physical) damage data needs
more attention.
Task Force “Braunsbach” demonstrated the feasibility.
Idea: Create European Task Forces (e.g. in a COST action).