Modelling recent and future sea ice changes

An assessment of CMIP5/COMBINE results

T. Fichefet, F. Massonnet

with contributions from

M. Chevallier, P. J. Hezel, T. Koenigk, O. Lecomte,

D. Salas y Mélia, G. Vergé-Dépré and K. Wyser

September Arctic sea ice extent

million km²

October 3rd, 2013 – COMBINE Final General Assembly

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

The Arctic sea ice

clock is ticking

Annual Arctic sea ice extent anomalies

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

Antarctic sea ice variability

is more puzzling than ever

Annual Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies

1. Modelling sea ice : from CMIP3 to CMIP5

2. Sea ice projections

1. Modelling sea ice : from CMIP3 to CMIP5

2. Sea ice projections

3. Developments in sea ice modelling

1. Modelling sea ice : from CMIP3 to CMIP5

2. Sea ice projections

3. Developments in sea ice modelling

1. Modelling sea ice : from CMIP3 to CMIP5

The seasonality of Arctic sea ice extent

is better simulated in CMIP5 than CMIP3

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

1980‒1999

Average Arctic sea ice extent

OBS

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Month

CMIP3

CMIP5

1986‒2005

CMIP5 mean

NASA

The CMIP5 model spread

around the mean is still large

Average Arctic sea ice extent

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

1980‒1999

Average Arctic sea ice extent

OBS

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Month

CMIP3

CMIP5

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

February September

The CMIP5 model spread

around the mean is still large

Number of CMIP5 models simulating at

least 15% of sea ice during 1986-2005

OBS

September Arctic sea ice extent

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

Trends in September Arctic sea ice extent

are better simulated in CMIP5 than CMIP3

CMIP3

CMIP5

OBS

OBS

(NASA)

Trends in September Arctic sea ice extent

are better simulated in CMIP5 than CMIP3

September Arctic sea ice extent Distribution of CMIP5 September Arctic sea ice

extent trends (1979-2010, 66 realisations)

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

CMIP3

CMIP5

OBS

Num

ber

of

models

September sea ice extent trend

Anthropogenic influences have very likely

contributed to Arctic sea ice loss since 1979

September Arctic sea ice extent

CMIP5

Pre-industrial forcing

CMIP5

Historical forcing

OBS (NASA)

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

1986‒2005

CMIP5 mean

OBS(NASA)

1980‒1999

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

Mean Antarctic sea ice extent: noticeable

improvements, but still very large spread

Average Antarctic sea ice extent Average Antarctic sea ice extent

CMIP3

CMIP5

OBS

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Month

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

Mismatch between observed and

simulated Antarctic sea ice variability

February Antarctic sea ice extent

(Zunz et al., The Cryosphere, 2013)

CMIP5 mean

OBS (NASA)

1979-2005 standard deviation of the

detrended Antarctic sea ice extent

CMIP3

CMIP5

OBS

Mean state

Trends/

variability

Attribution/

Detection

Improved Improved

Improved Status quo

Changes detectable

and attributable Uncertain

Conclusion 1

CMIP3 CMIP5: improvements

with persistent uncertainties

Arctic Antarctic

(large spread) (large spread)

2. Sea ice projections

3. Developments in sea ice modelling

1. Modelling sea ice : from CMIP3 to CMIP5

Improvements with persistent uncertainties

2. Sea ice projections

3. Developments in sea ice modelling

1. Modelling sea ice : from CMIP3 to CMIP5

Improvements with persistent uncertainties

−8%

−34%

−43%

−94%

February September

Changes in CMIP5 Arctic sea ice extent (reference: 1986-2005)

The Arctic sea ice cover will very likely

continue to shrink as global temperature rises

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

RCP8.5

RCP4.5

Average 2081-2100 CMIP5 sea ice concentration

February September

OBS 1986-2005

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

The Arctic sea ice cover will very likely

continue to shrink as global temperature rises

(Massonnet et al., The Cryosphere, 2012)

CMIP5 mean

NASA

CMIP5 mean

NASA

The spread in summer Arctic

sea ice projections remains wide

September Arctic sea ice extent simulated by CMIP5 models

RCP4.5 RCP8.5

near ice-free near ice-free

Proportion of CMIP5 models with September Arctic

sea ice extent < 1 million km² for at least 5 years

The spread in summer Arctic

sea ice projections remains wide

Year of disappearance of summer Arctic

sea ice is linked to baseline sea ice state

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013 ; Massonnet et al., The Cryosphere, 2012)

A nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in September is

likely by mid-century (high-emission scenario)

CMIP5 ensemble

5 selected models

September Arctic sea ice extent (RCP8.5)

million km²

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013 ; Massonnet et al., The Cryosphere, 2012)

near ice-free

(Hezel et al., in prep.)

Possible recovery of summer Arctic

sea ice if radiative forcing decreases

W/m²

Million km²

Radiative forcing

September sea ice extent

OBS

RCP8.5 (9 models)

RCP2.6 (9 models)

RCP4.5 (14 models)

March Arctic sea ice extent

Million km²

7 out of 9 CMIP5 models reach ice-free conditions

in winter by 2300 under a high-emission scenario

(Hezel et al., in prep.)

−16%

−67% −8%

−30%

February September

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

A decrease in Antarctic sea ice extent is expected

during the 21st century, but with low confidence

Changes in CMIP5 Antarctic sea ice extent (reference: 1986-2005)

Arctic Antarctic

Conclusion 2

CMIP5 offers the possibility to investigate Arctic sea

ice projections, caution has to be taken for Antarctic

Projected sea

ice extent very likely

Seasonally

ice-free

by mid-century

if high-emission scenario likely

Recovery of sea

ice in September possible if low-

emission scenario

low confidence

Annually

ice-free

clear possibility by 2300

if high-emission scenario

1. Modelling sea ice : from CMIP3 to CMIP5

Improvements with persistent uncertainties

2. Sea ice projections

CMIP5 offers the possibility to investigate Arctic sea

ice projections, caution has to be taken for Antarctic

3. Developments in sea ice modelling

1. Modelling sea ice : from CMIP3 to CMIP5

Improvements with persistent uncertainties

3. Developments in sea ice modelling

2. Sea ice projections

CMIP5 offers the possibility to investigate Arctic sea

ice projections, caution has to be taken for Antarctic

Seasonality of simulated mean sea ice extent

sensitive to freshwater and salt conservation

CNRM5.1

CNRM 5.2 +

melt ponds

CNRM 5.2

OBS (HadISST)

CNRM5.1

CNRM 5.2 +

melt ponds

CNRM 5.2

1980-1989 Average Arctic sea ice extent 1980- 1989 Average Antarctic sea ice extent

10

6 k

m²

Improved conservation

of salt and freshwater

Surface melt ponds

parameterisation (Holland et al., J. Clim., 2012)

CNRM 5.1 CNRM 5.2

OBS

Antarctic sea ice volume variability enhanced

due to stronger ocean convection variability

CNRM 5.1

CNRM 5.2

CNRM 5.2 +

melt ponds

10³ km³

September Antarctic sea ice volume

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

10

8

6

4

2

Million km²

September Arctic sea ice extent

OBS

Stream 1

Stream 2

Increased summer Arctic sea ice

sensitivity with realistic surface albedo

Surface melt ponds

parameterisation (Koltzow et al., JGR, 2007)

EC-Earth

Stream 1

EC-Earth

Stream 2

Stream 2

Stream 1

Simulated Arctic sea ice is highly sensitive

to coupling formulation with atmosphere

with LIM2

(1 ice category)

with LIM3

(1 ice category)

with LIM3

(5 ice categories,

equal fluxes)

EC-Earth Arctic sea ice extent

Implementing atmospheric coupling and

process-level developments in NEMO-LIM3

- Coupling of LIM3 (Vancoppenolle et

al., Oc. Modell., 2009) to IPSL-CM5

- Wave-ice interactions in NEMO-

LIM3 (Vancoppenolle et al., in prep.)

- Implementation in NEMO-LIM3 of a

comprehensive snow scheme

(Lecomte et al., JAMES, 2013)

- Detailed represesentation of surface

melt ponds, refreezing meltwater and

blowing snow (poster O. Lecomte)

Distribution of snow

depth on Arctic sea ice

Observed (Kwok et al., JGR, 2013)

Simulated (Lecomte et al., JAMES, 2013)

On first year ice

On multi-year ice

On first year ice

On multi-year ice

Implementing atmospheric coupling and

process-level developments in NEMO-LIM3

- Coupling of LIM3 (Vancoppenolle et

al., Oc. Modell., 2009) to IPSL-CM5

- Wave-ice interactions in NEMO-

LIM3 (Vancoppenolle et al., in prep.)

- Implementation in NEMO-LIM3 of a

comprehensive snow scheme

(Lecomte et al., JAMES, 2013)

- Detailed represesentation of surface

melt ponds, refreezing meltwater and

blowing snow (poster O. Lecomte)

COMBINE

contributions Impacts

Conclusion 3

All in all, improving sea ice physics

generally improves sea ice simulations

Snow processes

Surface processes Melt ponds and albedo

parameterisation

Conservation issues

Space+time varying snow

properties & distribution

Coupling to atmosphere

Strict conservation of salt

& freshwater in sea ice

Flux formulation

by ice category

Realistic snow

depth distribution

Decreased sea ice extent

and increased sensitivity

Increased

sea ice extent

Strong sensitivity to

type of formulation

1. Modelling sea ice : from CMIP3 to CMIP5

Improvements with persistent uncertainties

2. Sea ice projections

CMIP5 offers the possibility to investigate Arctic sea

ice projections, caution has to be taken for Antarctic

3. Developments in sea ice modelling

All in all, improving sea ice physics

generally improves sea ice simulations

~2020

CMIP6

IPCC AR6

COMBINE2?

September Arctic sea ice extent

mill

ion

km

²

Keep working and stay focused – there is a payoff!

Thank you

francois.massonnet@uclouvain.be

thierry.fichefet@uclouvain.be

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

NASA1

NASA2

Distribution of CMIP5 February Antarctic sea ice

extent trends (1979-2010, 66 realisations)

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

(IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013)

A B C D

Mil

lio

n k

m²

1 million km²

September Arctic sea ice extent

The one million

dollar question

A B C D

Mil

lio

n k

m²

Quadratic fit

September Arctic sea ice extent

1 million km²

The one million

dollar question

In climate change science,

never rely on your intuitions

Quadratic fit

A B C D

September Arctic sea ice extent

simulated by a CMIP5 model

Mil

lio

n k

m²

1 million km²