AIMES: Analysis, Integration and

Modelling of the Earth System

Peter Cox Co-Chair of AIMES

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AIMES Scientific Steering Committee

Sander van der Lueew

Dave Schimel

Marko Scholze

Kathy Hibbard

Victor Brovkin

Tim Lenton

Jae Edmonds Bala

Govindaswamy

Almut Arneth Mark Rounsevell

Pati Pinho

Gilberto Gallopin

Kiyoshi Takahashi

Taka Hirata

Refugee from 70’s

Lisa Alexander

Ana Paula Aguia

Duarte Costa

AIMES Tools & Expertise

Earth System Modelling

Integrated Assessment Modelling

Earth System Observations

Model-Data Fusion

Climatic Extremes

Land-Use Change

Impacts of Geoengineering

Tipping Points

AIMES Themes

Ø Monitoring & Predicting Earth System Change.

2012 Highlights: Model Comparison – Phytoplankton distributions obtained from different mechanisms

Introduction à Highlights à Collaborations

Provided by T. Hashioka (JAMSTEC) Hashioka et al., in press

Phyto Biomass Bloom Timing Diatom Biomass

Max Chla [mg/m3]

PISCES NEMURO PlankTOM CCSM/BEC

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Nutrient Vmax Light

Similar total Phyto. Biomass & Bloom Timing, but different Diatom distribution, due to different growth limitation mechanism

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AIMES Themes

Ø Monitoring & Predicting Earth System Change.

Ø Human-Environment Coupling.

Climate Change Projection

SOCIOECONOMICS

GHG EMISSIONS

CLIMATE CHANGE

IMPACTS

IPCC WG3

IPCC WG1

IPCC WG2

CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY

Simple Climate-Economy Model

Background CO2 Emissions Growth-rate of 1% and 4%

Without climate impacts on economy

Economic Depression due to Environmental

change

Kellie & Cox,2011

Simple Climate-Economy Model

Kellie & Cox,2011

AIMES Themes

Ø Monitoring & Predicting Earth System Change.

Ø Human-Environment Coupling.

Ø Planet Earth as a Complex System.

Map of potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system, updated from ref. 5 and overlain on global population density

Lenton T. M. et.al. PNAS 2008

Tipping Points (Lenton et al., 2008)

Small Sensitivity to Forcing

Larger Sensitivity to Forcing

Stable Equilibrium

Less Stable Equilibrium

Short and Fast Oscillations

Long and Slow Oscillations

Stability, Sensitivity and Variability

Detectable Precursors of Tipping Points ?

Dakos et al., 2008; Scheffer et al., 2009

Are we looking in the

wrong place for tipping points?

What can AIMES offer to TWI2050?

Ø  Knowledge of tipping points and tipping point precursors.

Ø  Expertise spanning “complex” Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models.

Ø  Techniques for Model-Data Fusion. Ø  Decadal prediction of the human-environment

system? Ø  Feedback control modelling to inform adaptive

policies?

Is Decadal Prediction the

answer to “Hiatus”

problems?

Keenlyside et al., 2008

Roberts et al., 2015