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Agile Base Patterns:The Agile Way of DoingDan Greening dan@senexrex.com

Copyright 2015, Senex Rex LLC. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. 38

• Managing Director: Senex Rex Agile Consulting

• Certified Scrum Coach (CSC)

• Head coach: Skype, Citrix Online• Startup successes

• PhD, computer science, UCLA

Dan Greening

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• Why did lean and agile methodologies arise?• What patterns do they share and why?• Why do organizations fail to sustain agility?• What characteristics do agile managers share?

Agenda

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Toyota• JIT/lean manufacturing• Continuous improvement• Top-down alignment• Collective responsibility• Respect for people

Most profitable

Toyota vs GM

General Motors• Forecast and inventory• Contract-dictated actions• Plant manager autonomy• Role-based responsibility• Class-based association

Bankrupt35

Software Project Failures

Standish Chaos Report, 2011Charette, “Why software fails,” 2005

Year Com pany Descr ipt ion Failur ecost Tot alf or year2005HudsonBayCo. [ Canada] Pr oblem swit hinvent or ysyst em contr ibutet o$33.3m illion*loss . $33,300,000

UKI nlandRevenue Sof t war eer r or s cont r ibutet o$3.45billion*t ax- credit over payment . $3,450,000,000$3,483,300,0002004Avis Eur opePLC[ UK] Ent er pr iser esour ceplanning( ERP) syst em canceledaf ter $54.5million†is spent . $54,500,000

For dMot or Co. Pur chas ingsyst em abandonedaft erdeploym ent cost ingapproxim ately$400m illion.

$400,000,000

J Sainsbur yPLC[ UK] Supply- chainm anagem ent syst emabandonedaf ter deploymentcost ing$527m illion. †

$527,000,000

Hewlet t - Packar dCo. Pr oblem swit hERPsyst em contr ibut et o$160m illionloss . $160,000,000AT&TWir eless Cust om er r elat ions m anagement( CRM) upgradepr oblemsleadt or evenueloss of

$100m illion.$100,000,000$1,241,500,000

2002McDonald’s Cor p. TheI nnovat einf orm ation- pur chas ingsystemcanceledaft er$170millionis spent . $170,000,000SydneyWat er Cor p.[ Austr alia] Billing syst em canceledaf t er$33. 2m illion†is spent . $33,200,000CI GNACor p. Pr oblem swit hCRM syst em cont ribut et o$445m illionloss . $445,000,000 $648,200,000

2001NikeI nc. Pr oblem swit hsupply- chainm anagem entsystemcont ribut et o$100m illionloss . $100,000,000Km ar t Cor p. Supply- chainm anagem ent syst emcanceledaf t er$130m illionis spent . $130,000,000 $230,000,000

2000Washingt on,D. C. Cit ypayr ollsys t em abandonedaft erdeploym ent costing$25m illion. $25,000,000 $25,000,0001999Unit edWay Adm inis t r at ivepr ocessingsystem canceledaf ter $12millionis spent . $12,000,000

St at eof M iss iss ippi Taxsyst em canceledaft er$11. 2millionis spent ; s t ater eceives$185m illiondam ages .

$196,200,000

Her sheyFoods Cor p. Pr oblem swit hERPsyst em contr ibut et o$151m illionloss . $151,000,000 $359,200,0001998Snap- onI nc. Pr oblem swit hor der - ent rysyst emcont ribut et or evenueloss of $50m illion. $50,000,000 $50,000,0001997U. S. I nt er nalRevenueService Taxm oder nizat ionef f ort canceledaf ter $4billionis spent . $4,000,000,000

St at eof Washingt on Depar tm ent of Motor Vehicle( DMV) syst emcanceledaf t er $40m illionis spent . $40,000,000Oxf or dHealt hPlans I nc. Billing andclaim s syst em pr oblem scont r ibutet oquart erlyloss ; s tockplummets ,

leadingt o$3. 4billion loss incor por at evalue.$3,400,000,000$7,440,000,000

1996Ar ianespace[ Fr ance] Sof t war especif icat ionanddes ignerr ors cause$350m illionAr iane5r ocket t oexplode.

$350,000,000

FoxMeyer Dr ugCo. $40m illion ERPsyst em abandonedaft erdeploym ent ,f or cingcom panyint obankr upt cy.

$40,000,000 $390,000,000

1995Tor ont oSt ockExchange[ Canada]Elect r onict r adingsyst emcanceledaf t er $25.5m illion**is spent . $25,500,000 $25,500,0001994U. S. Feder alAviat ionAdminis t r ationAdvancedAut om at ionSystemcanceledaft er$2. 6billionis spent . $2,600,000,000

St at eof Calif or nia DMVsyst em canceledaf ter $44m illionis spent . $44,000,000Chem icalBank Sof t war eer r or causes at otalof $15milliont obededuct edf rom100000customer

account s .$15,000,000$2,659,000,000

1993LondonSt ockExchange[ UK] Taur us s t ockset tlem entsystemcanceledaft er$600m illion**is spent . $600,000,000Alls t at eI nsur anceCo. Of f iceaut om at ionsystemabandonedaf t er deployment ,costing$130m illion. $130,000,000LondonAmbulanceSer vice[ UK] Dispat chsyst emcanceledin1990at $11. 25million**; secondatt empt abandoned

af t er deploym ent ,costing$15m illion. **$26,250,000

Gr eyhoundLines I nc. Bus r eser vat ionsyst em crashesr epeat edlyuponint roduction,cont r ibut ingtor evenueloss of $61m illion.

$61,000,000 $817,250,000

1992Budget Rent - A- Car ,Hilt onHot els ,Mar r iot t I nt ernat ional,andAMR[ Am er icanAir lines ]

Tr avelr eser vat ionsystemcanceledaft er$165m illionis spent . $165,000,000 $165,000,000

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Agile organizations can• Sense• Adapt• Createfaster than chaotic change

Why do we care?

Agility Defined

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Chaos Creates Opportunities

Everyone’s ability to predict the future degrades exponentially with timeSo create a company that exploits this chaos better than competitors

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• Economics drive everything we do• Economies produce value with limited resources

• Forces• Success metrics lag the work• Risk is rarely measured• Creativity generates variation

Pattern 1: Fixed-budget creativity often fails…

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• Identify top-level goals• Align everyone else

• Find leading metrics• Departments have their

own

…therefore, measure economic progress

Source: http://systemsthinking.org30

• Balance metrics

• Evolve metrics

Avoid perversity

Source: http://systems-thinking.org29

• Coherent company• Mission, vision and goals• Employee, team behavior

• If economy unchanging• We react• We learn• We forecast

Result (measure economic progress)

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• Measure economic progress• Proactively experiment to improve• Limit work in process• Embrace collective responsibility• Solve systemic problems

Agile Base Patterns: Are we agile?

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• Complacency lulls us• … we don’t hear a train

Pattern 2: Reacting is not enough …

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• Experiment• Brainstorm• Test a hypothesis• Control the experiment

• Evolve, but …• test revolutionary theories too

• Beware variability control• Can kill creativity

… therefore, proactively experiment

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Scrum Retrospective = Experiment

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Learn more: Seek 50% Invalidation

100% invalidated 100% validated

Where we learn the most

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“Stretch goals” “Agile is for the team”

• Hyperproductive teams• 40% higher quality• 100% faster production

• Jakobsen and Sutherland, “Scrum and CMMI: Going from Good to Great,” 2009 Agile Conference, IEEE.

• Organizations “disrupt themselves”

Result (Proactively Experiment)

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• Measure economic progress• Proactively experiment to improve• Limit work in process• Embrace collective responsibility• Solve systemic problems

Agile Base Patterns: Are we agile?

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• We feel better if everyone is busy• Why can’t they get stuff done on time?

Pattern 3: Utilization creates delay…

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Congestion

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Creative focus• We can remember

≤ 7±2 concepts

Cognition and Creative Focus

Source: Stanford University18

• Geometric Backlogs help make tradeoffs

• Incremental worktests theories faster

…therefore, limit work-in-process

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Limit WIP: Incremental Production

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• Rapidly deliver small increments of value• Possibility of rapid feedback• Cancellable work (sunk cost is low)• Learn faster than chaotic economy changes

• Manage # of options to match cognitive limits

Result (Limit WIP)

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• Measure economic progress• Proactively experiment to improve• Limit work in process• Embrace collective responsibility• Solve systemic problems

Agile Base Patterns: Are we agile?

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4: People create delay by avoiding responsibility…

Source: Christopher Avery

Tim

eNo problems get solved until we take responsibility

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• Provide people with…• autonomy, understanding, authority• Information radiators

• Teach Responsibility Process• Seek faster responsibility

…therefore, embrace collective responsibility

Wirksworth Town Cleanup 200912

• Greater elasticity

• In-team • Collaborative problem solving• Increased teaching and learning

Result (collective responsibility)

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• Measure economic progress• Proactively experiment to improve• Limit work in process• Embrace collective responsibility• Solve systemic problems

Agile Base Patterns: Are we agile?

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• Dependencies • Make us wait• Make us test more

• Handoff interference• Even more delays

5: External factors limit our agility…

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• Convert bosses to be agile• Build collaborative teams of peer managers

• Manage strategic work with agile• hiring, comp, review, M&A, etc.

• Ritualize and celebrate problem solving

• Analyze and change structural systems• Lean Kanban, ToC, Dependency Mapping, A3

…therefore, solve systemic problems

8Merge and/or Colocate to Speed Up

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• Culture of problem solving• Cross-department collaboration• Faster organization

Result (solve systemic problems)

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• Measure economic progress• Proactively experiment to improve• Limit work in process• Embrace collective responsibility• Solve systemic problems

Agile Base Patterns: Are we agile?

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Agile Base Patterns Agility LostMeasure progress Stopped measuring (agile for us, stretch goals)Proactively experiment Discouraged experimentation (risk aversion)Limit work in process No automation. Took on too much workCollective responsibility Assigned responsibilitySolve systemic problems High territoriality

Why do organizations lose agility?

Misalignment of organizational and individual goals

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What do agile managers do?

Agile Base Patterns Agile ManagersMeasure progress Measure department’s service to customerProactively experiment Create low-risk experimentsLimit work in process Limit departmental work in processCollective responsibility Embrace organizational responsibilitySolve systemic problems Teach, mentor, coach their skills

Top-Down Agile beats Bottom-UpPeople working for an agile manager must become and sustain agility, to realize the manager’s personal goals

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• http://senexrex.com/agile-managers/• Greening, “Agile Base Patterns in the Agile Canon,” HICSS 2016• Greening, “Release Duration and Enterprise Agility,” HICSS 2013• Greening, “Agile Enterprise Metrics,” HICSS 2015• http://senexrex.com/category/agile-base-patterns/• Alexander, A Pattern Language, 1977

References: Agile Managers

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Dan Greening+1(415)754-8311dan@senexrex.com

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