Post on 21-Jul-2016
description
Overview of Solar PV in South Africa
Dr Christopher Haw
May 2013
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Structure of my talk
1. Introduction
2. Global and local trends and forecasts
3. Commercial “end-use” market issues
4. Addressing PV critisisms
5. Conclusions
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Introduction to me
• Spokesperson & co-founder (SAPVIA)
• Director –
– Konkoonsies 10MW solar PV facility
– Aurora Power Solutions
– SOLA
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100 Members and
growing…
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SAVPIA
� Represents industry at a national and provincial level
� Informs its members of the latest trends and
regulatory developments
� Promotes a higher penetration of the technology
� Facilitates business to business contacts among
industry stakeholders
NOTE: SAPVIA will be launching an independent
research report (F&S, ARUP)
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A stark reality…
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1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1950 2000 2050 2100
Worldwide possible coal production
M toe
OECD North America
China
LA
OECD Pacific
Africa
OECD Europe
SouthAsia
East Asia
FSU
subbituminous
subbituminous
subbitum inousbitum
inous
bituminous
bitum inous
bitum inous
bitum inous
lignitelignite
lignite
lignite
lignite
lignite
bitum inous
Year
WEO 2006: Reference scenario
W EO 2006: Alternative policy scenario
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Global PV Capacities –
source- EPIA
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Global predicted trends –
source EPIA
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Utility vs Embedded scale
prediction
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Eskom’s pilot SOP program for small scale embedded renewable energy achieved
its 20MW target within 9 months. Approximately 75% of that is PV.
• New determination of 3200MW renewables for next three years
• 1000MW per year to be procured through REIPPP, estimated 300MW of PV
• Small projects program of 100MW (majority of which will likely be PV)
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Distinct Market Segments
• Utility scale ground mounted (REIPPP)
– Program on track
– Risks still exist in “desperate” projects low-balling
– Will be dominated by international utilities
• Embedded or small scale generation
– Has greater opportunity for job creation, local content and local economic development
– Still has barriers to overcome which need political support
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Global Trends
EPIA Market Outlook 2013-2017:
“In the coming years, deployment strategies will depend much more on the capacity of PV power to actively participate in the electricity system”
“several key markets are already entering the transition phasefrom an investor-driven market to an energy savings-driven market in
the building segments (residential, commercial and industrial).”
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• What are the barriers and opportunities to
solar PV for “end-use consumers” in South
Africa?
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Opportunities
• Great solar resource
• Rising energy prices
• Technology prices dropping
• Smart grid technology increasing
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Barriers
• Municipal and National revenue loss
• Utility lack of control over demand profile
• No bi-directional energy flow restricts size
• Market awareness and uptake
• Wheeling costs
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Case Study –Office Centre,
Cape Town
• Installation and operation of a 700kW PV
system in CT.
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Good Solar Resource
• Using satellite data predictions the
resource probability can be calculated
and guaranteed
• Approximately 1650kWh/kWp
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Good Resource
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Opportunity - Load shifting
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Essential Loads
Non-Essential
Loads
Inverter/PLC
PV system
Stand-by
Generator
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Load shifting and
demand control
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PV Generation – Old Load Profile – New Load Profile –
300kVA, 2 hours, R160 per KVA
Saving – R48,000 p.m.
Equivalent kWh- 18,000
kWh value – R2.60
A dispatchable generation source
with LCOE less than R2.60 is
financially viable.
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Load shifting
opportunities
• Load shifting, or demand management, is in the best interests
of the Utilities.
• Smart grids aim to improve demand management and
measurement
• Embedded PV systems include components with the ability to
measure demand peaks and control non-essential or residual
loads.
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Barriers evident from the case study
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Size restriction
• With no bi-directional flow allowed the system has to
be optimized to ensure minimum over-production
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Huge opportunities for embedded generation are lost
because regulation is not in place to allow back feed into
the system.
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Return generation
effecting Market Uptake
• Evidence suggests that most medium size businesses require
payback period of 3-4 years to enable market.
• This means IRRs of 25-33%.
• Current returns with Eskom subsidy are 15-20% in Cape Town
and 20-25% in Johannesburg
• Returns are difficult to calculate with complicated tariff
structures and require historical load profiles.
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Further support is needed to fuel further PV uptake:
• Provide simplified tariff structures for embedded generators
• Eskom SOP subsidy
• Tax breaks, other..
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Wheeling Charges
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Eskom’s “wheeling” charges can be as much as 18% of the tariff or approximately 30c/kWh in 2016, effectively discouraging
potential wheeling agreements in South Africa.
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Addressing the criticisms
of solar PV
1. It generates energy at the wrong time and
therefore does not contribute to the capacity
crisis
2. It has no storage and can’t be used in a
baseload manner.
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Generation Timing
• Load profiles evolve with more urbanisation and economic sophistication
• South Africa has both a current “peak” crisis, but also a future energy supply crisis
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PV future costs in SA
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PV as baseload
• Combined with
pump storage
(e.g. INGA), PV-
PS will be
cheaper than
coal by 2020.
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Water Usage
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Conclusions
• Solar PV has a strong future in South Africa and is expected to
achieve rapid growth in the next 15 years.
• Many of the critisisms aimed at PV are mitigated by its rapid
cost reduction ability and the evolving load profile
• The commercial and industrial market segment will
experience growth as prices reach parity but require political
support and focused effort to amend restrictive regulation
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• Thank you
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