Post on 15-Jun-2020
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• 2013 – A Year in Review
• United States, Texas, and Austin
• Austin Economic Drivers
• Forecast: 2014-2015 Austin MSA
• Closing Remarks
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2013 % Change (YTD)
2.3 million 0.7%
$3.8 trillion 3.8%
2.2 million 1.6%
7.0% -13.6%
$1.2 trillion 5.2%
$20.7 billion 2.1%
187,500 2.1%
891,000 19.0%
1.3 million -28.0%
YTD New Population
YTD Retail Sales
Avg. New Jobs
Unemployment Rate
YTD Exports
Venture Capital Investment
New Business Formation1
YTD Housing Starts
YTD Foreclosures
1 As of first quarter 2012 (March) Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Conference Board, PriceWaterhouseCoopers,
Texas Comptroller, U.S. Census
YEAR IN REVIEW
United States
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |6 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |6
YEAR IN REVIEW
•Consumer Sentiment is slowly improving
•Sluggish improvement follows slow U.S. recovery
Source: St. Louis Fed
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |7 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |7
YEAR IN REVIEW
U.S. Federal Deficit & Debt-to-GDP
$0.46
$1.40 $1.30 $1.30
$1.10
$0.68 67.4%
81.3% 89.5%
94.3% 98.4% 100.3%
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Federal Deficit ($ Billions)
Federal Debt as % of GDP
Sources: St. Louis Fed
•Debt to GDP to reach 100%
•Deficit to drop below $1 billion
•Fiscal cliff & government shutdown
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |8 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |8
YEAR IN REVIEW
•Declining median household incomes
•Majority of new jobs are part time
Source: St. Louis Fed
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |9 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |9
Source: Time Magazine
YEAR IN REVIEW
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Texas 2013 % Change (YTD)
530,000 2.0%
$198 billion 7.4%
301,000 2.8%
6.2% -8.7%
$162 billion 3.6%
$986 million 27.3%
8,800 1.5%
58,900 18.0%
40,000 -46.0%
YTD New Population1
YTD Retail Sales2
Avg. New Jobs
Unemployment Rate
YTD Exports
YTD Venture Capital Investment
YTD New Business Formation3
YTD Housing Starts
YTD Foreclosures
1 Based on the Department of State Health Services 2 As of second quarter 2012 (June) 3 As of first quarter 2012 (March) Sources: St. Louis Fed, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Texas
Comptroller, U.S. Census
YEAR IN REVIEW
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*Note: YTD Nonfarm employment through September. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Education & Health
Leisure & Hospitality
Retail Trade
Other Services
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Wholesale Trade
Professional Services
Transportation
Construction
Information
Government
United States Texas
YEAR IN REVIEW
0.7%
1.8%
5.4%
0.3%
4.4%
3.3%
1.9%
0.6%
2.5%
3.5%
4.9%
2.7%
-0.3%
0.4%
2.9%
1.5%
3.4%
1.6%
1.4%
0.5%
0.9%
2.0%
2.9%
1.8%
Total Jobs 2.2M
(1.6%)
Total Jobs 301,000 (2.8%)
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |12 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |12
Austin MSA
New Population
Retail Sales
Avg. New Jobs
Unemployment Rate
Non Ag. Employment
YTD New Business Formation
2013 % Change (YTD)
54,700 3.0%
$27.2 billion 7.2%
27,200 3.3%
5.0% -11.9%
850,000 3.3%
1,000 2.2%
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Texas Comptroller, Census
YEAR IN REVIEW
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Austin MSA
Leisure & Hospitality
Government
Educ. & Health Services
Professional Services
Financial Activities
Transportation
Wholesale Trade
Information
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Construction
Growth Rate Industry New Jobs
Total Jobs 27,200 (3.3%)
Source: AngelouEconomics, Texas Workforce Commission
YEAR IN REVIEW
3,100
3,300
300
600
1,400
300
-500
8,400
4,000
1,200
4,800 5.2%
0.7%
4.0%
6.8%
-1.1%
2.2%
3.3%
2.9%
0.6%
3.8%
7.5%
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |14 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |14
Austin vs. Benchmarks
New Jobs Location Avg. % Change
Austin
Houston
Dallas/Ft. Worth
San Antonio
U.S.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
YEAR IN REVIEW
1.6%
1.5%
3.2%
3.4%
3.3% 27,200
88,800
94,600
13,000
2,195,000
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |15 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |15
• Austinpreneurship
• Tech Sector
• Real Estate
• The Festival/Entertainment Economy
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |16 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |16
$229
$389
$660$626
$518
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Venture Capital Investment ($ millions)
Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers
Initial Public Offerings
Company $ Raised
LDR Holding Corp
$92M
RetailMeNot, Inc
$230M
Jones Energy, Inc
$306M
AUSTIN’S ECONOMIC DRIVERS
$307.5
Q4: $210.5
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |17 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |17
Number of Austin Jobs by Sector (in thousands)
Total Tech Sector: 120,000 2013 New Jobs: 5,000
Job Growth: 4.3%
29.5
22.1
13.1
50.4
29.2
22.0 14.4
54.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Manufacturing High Tech Supply Chain
Information/IT Professional Services
2012
2013
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
AUSTIN’S ECONOMIC DRIVERS
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |18 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |18
Success of Austin Companies
Company Revenue
(previous 12 months)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(year over year)
Dell* $44.6B* -24.0%
Whole Foods Market $12.9B 15.8%
National Instruments $1.2B 32.5%
Cirrus Logic $862.8M 64.1%
American Campus $647.7M 45.9%
Silicon Laboratories $586.3M 9.1%
HomeAway $327.8M 22.7%
SolarWinds $282.2M 12.4%
BazaarVoice $169.2M 26.9%
AUSTIN’S ECONOMIC DRIVERS
Source: Yahoo Finance, Engadget and Forbes *Estimated
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |19 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |19
OM
MU
TE S
HED
AUSTIN’S ECONOMIC DRIVERS
• Dell goes private and restructures
• Silicon laboratories $94M expansion
• British airways to offer London/Austin non-stop
• LDR Holding Co., RetailMeNot and Jones Energy go public- raising $630 million
• The Dell Medical School - under construction late in 2014
Sources: Austin American Statesman, Austin Business Journal
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |20 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |20
Source: CoStar
AUSTIN’S ECONOMIC DRIVERS
(100)
200
500
800
1,100
1,400
1,700
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average Net Absorption (in thousands of sq. ft.)
Retail
Industrial
Office
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |21 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |21
Source: CoStar
Rental & Occupancy rates
$7.5 $7.0 $6.6 $6.6 $6.6 $7.1
$25.8 $25.3 $24.7 $24.6 $25.1 $27.1
$19.5 $19.0 $18.2 $17.8 $17.9 $17.6
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (YTD)
Industrial Office Retail
AUSTIN’S ECONOMIC DRIVERS
80%85%90%95%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (YTD)
Office
Retail
Industrial
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |22 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |22
Source: U.S. Census, Texas A&M Real Estate Market Report, Metrostudy
Residential Market
Months of Inventory 2.6
MLS Sales 31,000
Avg. Home Price $285,300
Housing Starts 8,500
New Multi-Family Units 13,900
Multi-Family Occupancy Rate 95.2%
Multi-Family Rental Rate/SF $1.10
AUSTIN’S ECONOMIC DRIVERS
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |23 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |23
OM
MU
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HED
AUSTIN’S ECONOMIC DRIVERS
• Austin City Limits • Estimated 2013 economic impact of over $105M
• South by Southwest • Brought $218M in economic impacts in 2013
• Circuit of the Americas • Moto GP • F1
- $400 - $500 million annual economic impact - 300,000 fans attend each Grand Prix Weekend
• Austin to host 2014 summer X-Games
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |24 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |24
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |25 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |25
Leisure & Hospitality
Government
Education & Health Services
Other Services
Professional Services
Financial Activities
Information
Manufacturing
Trade, Transport, Utilities
Construction 5,200
10,600
1,300
1,700
1,900
16,800
2,700
7,200
2,500
9,400
Industry New Jobs Growth Rate
Total Jobs 59,300 (7.0%)
Source: AngelouEconomics
AUSTIN’S 2014-2015 FORECAST
9.7%
1.5%
7.1%
7.5%
12.7%
4.2%
7.6%
2.5%
7.0%
11.6%
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |26 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |26
FORECAST
1,6801,716
1,7841,819
1,873
1,930
1,987
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: AngelouEconomics
Population (in millions)
AUSTIN’S 2014-2015 FORECAST
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |27 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |27
Market Expected Absorption
Office 2,500,000 sq. ft.
Industrial 2,100,000 sq. ft.
Retail 1,600,000 sq. ft.
Single Family 18,500 units
Multi-Family 16,500 units
Source: AngelouEconomics
AUSTIN’S 2014-2015 FORECAST
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |28 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |28
20.6 23.7
25.327.2
29.231.3
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Retail Sales Growth Rate
FORECAST % Growth
Source: AngelouEconomics
Retail Sales (in billions)
AUSTIN’S 2014-2015 FORECAST
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |29 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |29
YEAR IN REVIEW
Rebates by City and County, 2013 (through Nov.)
Payments % Change
Bastrop County $6.2 M 4.4%
Bastrop $4.6 M 3.0%
Caldwell County $3.3 M 2.4%
Lockhart $1.8 M 0.4%
Hays County $30.1 M 10.1%
San Marcos $21.4 M 8.9%
Travis County $180.3 M 6.8%
Austin $154.1 M 6.2%
Pflugerville $6.7 M 7.8%
Williamson County $104.7 M 8.9%
Georgetown $16.5 M 12.8%
Round Rock $61.9 M 6.6%
Source: Texas Comptroller
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |30 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |30
FORECAST
Source: AngelouEconomics
New Jobs (in thousands)
AUSTIN’S 2014-2015 FORECAST
18.4
-17.7
11.3
21.825.7
27.2
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Employment Growth Rate
28.9 30.4
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |31 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |31
Thank you to our Sponsors
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |32 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |32
Please submit your
questions via twitter @
#ae2014
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2014 – 2015 Expert Panelists
Mark Strama – Head of Google Fiber Austin
Hugh Forrest – Director of SXSW Interactive
Catherine Morse – General Counsel of Samsung Austin
Greg Hartman – President of External Affairs of Seton
Jason Dorsey – Gen Y Guy
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |34 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |34
Catherine Q. Morse General Counsel and Director of Public Affairs
Samsung Austin Semiconductor
Catherine Morse is General Counsel and Director of Public
Affairs for Samsung Austin Semiconductor. She serves as the
primary liaison between Samsung and the local community.
After spending several years is the Austin office of Fulbright &
Jaworski, Catherine began her in-house counsel career with
Applied Materials. She subsequently worked at Freescale
Semiconductor as Director of Labor & Employment law before
joining Samsung.
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |35 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |35
Hugh Forrest
Director of SXSW Interactive
Hugh Forrest serves as the Director of the annual South by
Southwest Interactive Festival. Hugh has been called a force
of nature, and he is credited with being one of the main
reasons SXSW is so phenomenally successful.
Scheduled March 7-11, 2014 in Austin, SXSW Interactive
brings together more than 30,000 digital creatives from across
the US and around the world. Before joining the SXSW team,
Forrest founded a small alternative publication called The
Austin Challenger and wrote for several other publications.
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |36 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |36
Greg Hartman President, Academic Medicine, Research & External Affairs
Seton Family of Hospitals Greg Hartman is the President of External Affairs for the
Seton Healthcare Family. He has responsibility for
communications, marketing, and government affairs for the
Seton network, as well as Seton’s growing enterprise in
academic medicine and research.
Prior to his current role at Seton, Greg was the President and
CEO for Seton’s Central Group, which included Seton
Medical Center Austin, the University Medical Center
Brackenridge and the Clinical Education Center @
Brackenridge
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |37 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |37
A former University of Texas student, at 29 Jason is the country’s leading
generational speaker. He became a best-selling author at the age of 18.
He is also an acclaimed speaker, award-winning entrepreneur, and expert
in Millennials strategy, he focuses on teaching business executives how to
attract, retain, and develop Gen Y employees.
Jason has been featured on 60 Minutes, 20/20, The Today Show, The
View and many more. His latest books are My Reality Check Bounced!
and Y-Size Your Business. He won the “Austin Under 40 Entrepreneur of
the Year Award” at age 25—one of the youngest winners ever.
An Austin resident, Jason is Chief Strategy Officer at The Center for
Generational Kinetics. He has received over 1,000 standing ovations from
audiences as large as 16,000.
Jason Dorsey
Gen Y Guy
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |38 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |38
Mark was recently named head of Google Fiber in Austin. Previously,
he represented the north Austin area in the Texas House of
Representatives. Mark received Honorable Mentions on Texas
Monthly's Ten Best Legislators list in three of his five sessions in the
House. Texas Monthly said "Strama cares as much about others'
success as his own."
Prior to running for public office, Mark founded the first company to
enable Americans to fill out a voter registration form on the Internet -
700,000 people used this technology to register to vote in the 2000
election cycle. He previously worked for former Texas Governor Ann
Richards and Texas State Senator Rodney Ellis. Mark graduated from
Brown University with degrees in philosophy and political science.
Mark Strama
Head of Google Fiber Austin
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |39 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |39
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |40 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |40
Hugh Forrest
Director of SXSW Interactive
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |41 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |41
Greg Hartman President, Academic Medicine, Research & External Affairs
Seton Family of Hospitals
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |42
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |43 Google confidential
and proprietary
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |44 Google confidential
and proprietary
World Average Speeds
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |45 Google confidential
and proprietary
Cost Per Megabit is High
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |46 Google confidential
and proprietary
Growth in Technology Innovation
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |47
times faster Internet
100
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |48 Google confidential
and proprietary
History of Internet Speeds
Dial Up Broadband
AE ANNUAL FORECAST |49 AE ANNUAL FORECAST |49
Thank you for another great year and
Thanks again to
Pflugerville Community
Development Corporation