Post on 27-Mar-2015
ADAPTAssessment & Design for Adaptation:
a Prototype Tool
Ian Noble, World Bankinoble@worldbank.org
&
Fareeha Y. Iqbal (Consultant, World Bank)fiqbal1@worldbank.org
What is it? A screening & design tool
Who is it for? Project developers, field staff, multilateral orgs. and NGOs
What does it do?
• Provides a quick, initial check of potential issues that might arise in project design or implementation
• Guides project developers to appropriate knowledge and experience
• Raises awareness on the risks that climate change poses to development
It is not a community level decision making tool !
What do project managers need to know?
• issues climate change might pose for their projects
• where to access more specific information about these
• some suggestions on how the project could be made more robust in the face of expected changes in climate
What do they often get?
• vague answers that emphasize “uncertainties”
• asked to provide highly quantitative data so that models can be run to compute answers for them – models usually still under development, though…
• asked to come back in a year or two when adaptation pilot project is complete and results have started to be processed…
What ADAPT offers• project screening based on existing knowledge
• expert system that identifies key activities that might be sensitive to climate variability and change
• qualitative climate change data bases combining models and current trends
• qualitative assessment of risks and opportunities
• pointers to appropriate literature, tools, projects and experts
Levels of Advice Provided
adaptation issues are important and further follow up is strongly recommended
some concerns, which should be checked
not enough known to assess
no adaptation issues foreseen
positive action for adaptation
A framework for a screening & designtool
User Guidance on risk
avoidance and adaptation
options
Additional tools
Document database
Project database Experts
Risk elements
&Location
Direction of climate change
(increase, no change,
decrease, unknown)
Activities
Climate sensitivi
ty
Climate paramete
r
(eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc)
Climate sensitivity for an
activity
Climate paramet
erLo
cati
on
Projected direction of
climate change
Technically complex : Multiple models – changing data bases
What project managers need to know
A framework for a screening & designtoolbased on expert advice
User Guidance on risk
avoidance and adaptation
options
Additional tools
Document database
Project database Experts
Risk elements
&Location
Direction of climate change
(increase, no change,
decrease, unknown)
Activities
Climate sensitivi
ty
Climate paramete
r
(eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc)
Climate sensitivity for an
activity
Climate paramet
erLo
cati
on
Projected direction of
climate change
Selected scenarios
and current trends
Expert assessment of
relevant activitiesExpert
assess
ment of
sensit
ivities
A framework for a screening & design tool
User Guidance on risk avoidance and adaptation
options
What does the user see?
Additional tools
Document database
Project database Experts
Risk elements
&Location
Direction of climate change
(increase, no change, decrease, unknown)
Activities
Climate sensitivi
ty
Climate paramete
r
(eg average rainfall, rainfall variability, temperature etc)
Climate sensitivity for an
activity
Climate paramet
erLo
cati
on
Projected direction of
climate change
Relevant Relevant guidance guidance to …to …
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Leading to …
A series of questions
about their
project
Assessm
en
t &
Desig
n f
or
Clim
ate
C
han
ge –
a P
roto
typ
e T
ool
--
AD
AP
T
Help about the question and about
each option
Ability to change
ones mind
• Printable outputs
• Database of relevant local experts
• Can be periodically updated
• Simple structure
Simple Expert System
Simple Expert System