Post on 15-Jan-2016
description
Canada’s Energy Futures 2011:Canada’s Energy Futures 2011:
Shifting TrendsShifting Trends
Preview of Key Results & Comparison Preview of Key Results & Comparison with Past Projectionswith Past Projections
Abha BhargavaAbha BhargavaMatthew HansenMatthew HansenBryce VanSluysBryce VanSluys
3030thth USAEE/IAEE North American Conference USAEE/IAEE North American ConferenceWashington, DCWashington, DC
October 9-12, 2011October 9-12, 2011Canada
11
22
The NEBThe NEB
An independent quasi-An independent quasi-judicial regulatory judicial regulatory tribunal established in tribunal established in 19591959
Two primary functions:Two primary functions:– Regulatory mandateRegulatory mandate– Energy information Energy information
mandatemandate
33
Energy Futures - BackgroundEnergy Futures - Background
Flagship product published since 1967Flagship product published since 1967– Approximately every 4 yearsApproximately every 4 years
Last Report in 2007, with reference Case Update in Last Report in 2007, with reference Case Update in 20092009– Presentation focused on comparing trends between 2007, Presentation focused on comparing trends between 2007,
2009 and 2011 projections2009 and 2011 projections Key ObjectivesKey Objectives
– Provide unbiased, relevant, comprehensive, expert analysis Provide unbiased, relevant, comprehensive, expert analysis on energy supply, demand and its economic implications on energy supply, demand and its economic implications and serve as a referenceand serve as a reference
– Provide stimulus for discussion with and amongst Provide stimulus for discussion with and amongst stakeholdersstakeholders
– Inform policy and business decisions of key risks and Inform policy and business decisions of key risks and uncertainties facing the energy futureuncertainties facing the energy future
NEB’s Integrated Energy NEB’s Integrated Energy Modeling FrameworkModeling Framework
44
Key Inputs: energy prices, oil and gas drilling, supply costs, well productivity and decline rates, electricity unit
level characteristics, and other relevant projections
Crude Oil Model
Refinery Balances
Model
Natural Gas
Model
NGL Model
Informetrica Macroeconomic Model
Energy 2020 (Energy Demand,
Electricity)
2011 Energy Futures Methodology:2011 Energy Futures Methodology:Reference Case and Four Reference Case and Four
SensitivitiesSensitivities
Reference Case 2010-
2035
Fast and SlowEconomic Growth
Sensitivities
High and Low Price
Sensitivities
55
66
Real GDP Oil Price (WTI, 2010 US$/bbl)
Gas Price (Henry Hub, 2010 US$/MMbtu)
AAG* 2010-2035
2020 2035AAG*
2010-2035
2020 2035AAG*
2010-2035
Reference Case 2.3% $102 $115 1.5% $6.00 $8.00 2.4%
Fast 3.2% $105 $121 1.7% $6.50 $8.90 2.8%
Slow 1.8% $100 $112 1.4% $5.60 $6.80 1.7%
High Price 2.3% $142 $155 2.7% $7.40 $10.70 3.6%
Low Price 2.3% $72 $85 0.3% $5.40 $6.40 1.5%
*AAG=Average annual growth
Five sensitivities represent a wide range of Five sensitivities represent a wide range of possibilitiespossibilities
At a glance: Canadian energy At a glance: Canadian energy demand, supply and trade, 2010-demand, supply and trade, 2010-20352035
77
Energy supply at record levelsEnergy supply at record levels
Unconventional production grows for oil, gas and Unconventional production grows for oil, gas and electricity electricity – Oil Sands becomes the dominant source of production more Oil Sands becomes the dominant source of production more
than tripling by 2035than tripling by 2035
– Tight and shale gas makes up for declining conventional gas Tight and shale gas makes up for declining conventional gas production production
– Electric fuel mix becomes cleaner with changes to coal Electric fuel mix becomes cleaner with changes to coal capacitycapacity
88
Canadian energy demand growth Canadian energy demand growth slows slows
Energy demand growth slows moderately compared Energy demand growth slows moderately compared to historyto history– Residential energy use is nearly flat over the projectionResidential energy use is nearly flat over the projection
– Industrial sector grows the fastestIndustrial sector grows the fastest
Changes in demand trends are the result of Changes in demand trends are the result of efficiency and conservation programs, and higher efficiency and conservation programs, and higher energy prices energy prices – Slowing economy and lower population growth are Slowing economy and lower population growth are
additional factors additional factors
Government programs result in biodiesel and Government programs result in biodiesel and ethanol demand increasing faster than other fuelsethanol demand increasing faster than other fuels
99
Supply – Demand trends have Supply – Demand trends have implications for trade and implications for trade and
infrastructureinfrastructure Supply and demand trends will effect energy tradeSupply and demand trends will effect energy trade
– Oil – net oil available for export triplesOil – net oil available for export triples
– Gas – net gas available for export declines until Gas – net gas available for export declines until 2020, and flat for the remainder2020, and flat for the remainder
– Electricity – net electricity available for export Electricity – net electricity available for export nearly doublesnearly doubles
Supply side shifts (volume and location) will have Supply side shifts (volume and location) will have implications for infrastructure implications for infrastructure
1010
1111
Oil Sands
Conventional
East Coast
Crude Oil: 2011 oil projections surpass past Crude Oil: 2011 oil projections surpass past projections projections
Natural Gas Production: lower gas prices, lower conventional (non-Natural Gas Production: lower gas prices, lower conventional (non-tight) production, varying tight gas projections, Mackenzie push-tight) production, varying tight gas projections, Mackenzie push-backs and varying LNG assumptionsbacks and varying LNG assumptions
2010 2020 2030
AB Production (Bcf/d)
2007 11.97 8.89 4.95
2009 10.23 7.64
2011 10.45 6.14 5.78
BC Production (Bcf/d)
2007 2.61 2.29 2.23
2009 3.06 5.92
2011 2.99 7.04 9.36
WCSB Conventional (no tight, Bcf/d)
2007 11.03 7.91 4.77
2009 6.73 4.15
2011 6.76 3.21 2.51
WCSB Tight (Bcf/d)2007 1.90 1.27 0.76
2009 4.88 6.48
2011 4.90 6.86 8.30
BC Shale (Bcf/d)2007 0.00 0.00 0.00
2009 0.15 1.34
2011 0.29 1.85 3.36
NWT (Bcf/d)2007 0.00 1.20 1.90
2009 0.01 1.20
2011 0.02 0.95 1.20
LNG Imports (Bcf/d)2007 0.50 2.05 2.85
2009 0.14 0.50
2011 0.66 0.80 0.98
1212
1313
Electricity Generation: 2011 projections have similar Electricity Generation: 2011 projections have similar overall generation, with larger shares of gas and overall generation, with larger shares of gas and renewables, and less nuclear and coalrenewables, and less nuclear and coal
Demand growth similar to 2009 Reference Demand growth similar to 2009 Reference Case in aggregate, but sectors tell a Case in aggregate, but sectors tell a different storydifferent story
Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation
1414
Recent EIA AEO Projections: Recent EIA AEO Projections: Trends are shifting for the U.S. as Trends are shifting for the U.S. as wellwell
1515
ConclusionsConclusions
Significant shifts have occurred in the last 5 years in the Significant shifts have occurred in the last 5 years in the field of energy in North Americafield of energy in North America
While supply of natural gas has seen an upside While supply of natural gas has seen an upside potential, demand for energy has come downpotential, demand for energy has come down
Tight oil plays is another success story seen across Tight oil plays is another success story seen across North America, with production increasing at least in North America, with production increasing at least in the medium termthe medium term
Electricity sector is seeing a growing share of Electricity sector is seeing a growing share of renewables renewables
For copies of the Energy Futures projections, see For copies of the Energy Futures projections, see www.neb-one.gc.ca (includes detailed data appendices) (includes detailed data appendices)
1616