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ABC HOLDINGS LIMITED
Results Presentation
for the year ended 31 December 2008
2
Economic Environment
Financial Performance
Overview
Income statement review
Balance sheet review
Outlook
Challenges & outlook
Capitalisation
Dividend
AGENDA
3
Country
GDP
(USDm)
2008
GDP Growth
rate
2008
Banking Deposits (USDm)
2008
Banking Credit
(USDm)
2008
Banking Assets
(USDm)
2008
Population
2008 est (m)
No. of
banks
Botswana 11,728 3.3% 4,991 2,251 6,449 1.8 12
Mozambique 10,100 6.5% 2,965 1,631 4,235 21.2 12
Tanzania 21,346 7.5% 4,680 3,201 6,325 40.1 36
Zambia 13,484 5.8% 2,354 1,685 3,363 12.3 14
Zimbabwe* 2,000 -10.5% 377 50 945 12.4 28
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT & INDUSTRY ATTRACTIVENESS
Sources: - IMF – World economic outlook database: October 08 -Central Banks statistics
*Estimates
4
Due to the negative impact of the global economy, GDP growth slowed down in all Southern African economies
Zimbabwe registered negative GDP growth for the tenth consecutive year
Commodity prices weakened significantly in sympathy with the global economic downturn
Banking assets however continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace
Botswana boasts the highest GDP per Capita and highest banking assets per Capita but other countries are making strides
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
5
Average inflation was in double digit level ( except in Zimbabwe, where it was well in excess of this)
Generally all currencies weakened particularly in the second half of 2008
Zimbabwe in a hyperinflationary environment; Last official inflation at 231m% in July 2008
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
6
Country
Inflation Rate
Dec-2008
Avg. TB Yield Rate*
Dec-2008
Avg or Prime
Lending Rates 2008
Avg. Prime Lending
Rates 2007
Botswana 12.6% 12.58% 16.6% 16.2%
Mozambique 10.4% 13.72% 20.1% 20.1%
Tanzania 10.3% 8.11% 13.6% 14.4%
Zambia 12.4% 12.20% 25.2% 25.0%
Zimbabwe 231 m%*** 340%** 3,700% 559.0%
* 90 day** 1 year***July 2008
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT– Inflation & Interest Rates
7
ZWD Old Mutual implied rateZWD revalued in 2008
To 1 BWP 31 Dec-08 31 Dec-07
United States Dollar 0.13 0.17
Mozambique Metical
3.38 4.30
South African Rand 1.25 1.13
Tanzania Shilling 174 191
Zambian Kwacha 636 640
Zimbabwe Dollar 88 Quad 0.0001 Quad
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT– Exchange Rates
8
•ZWD Old Mutual implied rate•ZWD revalued in 2008
To 1 US dollar 31 Dec-08 31 Dec-07
Botswana Pula 7.54 6.02
Mozambique Metical
25.50 25.67
South African Rand
9.40 6.81
Tanzania Shilling 1 315 1 146
Zambian Kwacha 4 795 3 850
Zimbabwe Dollar 665 Quad* 0.001 Quad
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT– Exchange Rates
9
International Equity Market Cap, US$ Trillions
2007 Mkt Cap
2008 Mkt CapNYSE
Nasdaq
Tokyo SE
London Shanghai
9.2
15.6
3.1
4.3
2.4
4
1.9
3.9 3.6
1.4
10
International Banks Market cap
Source: Bloomberg, March 9th 2009
255
215
165
120108
9176
49
6
59 60
1025
7
49
18
0
50
100
150
200
250
Citigroup HSBC JP Morgan RBS BNPParibas
Barclays DeutscheBank
MorganStanley
US
$ B
nMkt Cap as of Q2 2007 Mkt Cap as of 9-Mar-09
11
Stock Market Cap in Some African Equities (2007 vs 2008)
-42.1
-35.8
-35
-32.3
-19.3
-14.9
14.7
33.5
36.4
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
JSE Ltd.
Nigerian SE
Botswana SE
Zimbabwe SE
Nairobi SE
Lusaka SE
Ghana SE
Malawi SE
Dar-Es Salam SE
%
12
International Commodity Prices
Gold Platinum Palladium Copper Nickel Oil Aluminum
US$/oz US$/oz US$/oz US$/t US$/t
US$/barre
l US$/t
Dec-07 805 1,488 351 6,638 26,143 91 2,379
Mar-08 964 2,046 489 8,398 30,997 106 2,988
Jun-08 889 2,038 450 8,260 22,531 134 2,958
Sep-08 833 1,223 248 6,990 17,791 104 2,525
Dec-08 816 835 175 3,066 9,678 43 1,582
Jan-09 859 950 189 3,164 11,142 45 1,420
Feb-09 943 1,036 206 3,314 10,406 39 1,330
13
International Commodity Prices
964
2049
450
147
816
835
175
43
943
1036
206
39
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Gold
Platinum
Palladium
Oil
US$
Peak price in 2008 Dec 08 Price
Feb 09 Price
14
Overview
Income Statement Review
Balance Sheet Review
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
15
Attributable profit at BWP86m is down from BWP 124m in prior year
Net asset value up by 39% from BWP 314m to BWP B438m
Net interest income for financial operations up by 40% from BWP 127 m to BWP 178 m
Total income up to BWP 401m from BWP 339 million
Return on equity of 23% compared to 42% in 2007
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE - Overview
16
Balance sheet growth of 38% to BWP 4 billion
Loans and advances up by 80% to BWP 2.2 billion, reflecting impact of Tier II capital injection
Deposits increased by 40% to BWP 2.8 billion
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE - Overview
17
BWP Dec 08 % change
Dec 07
Attributable profits (‘000s) 86,029 -30% 123,523
Basic EPS (Thebe) 60.4 -37 % 95.3
Dividend per Share ( Thebe) 8.00 -43 % 14.00
Cost to income ratio 59% 12 % 47%
Net asset value (‘000s) 437,777 40 % 313,813
NAV per share 3.07 30 % 2.37
Total Assets (‘000s) 3,967,909 35 % 2,930,121
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE – Salient features
18
Attributable Profit (BWPm) and R O E (%)
124
86
51
46
8620%
30%
37%
23%
42%
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0%5%10%
15%20%25%30%
35%40%45%
Attributable profit R O E
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE – Five year earnings overview
19
Net Asset Value (BWPm) and N A V per share (Pula)
438
184 186
272314
3.07
2.051.401.62
2.37
-
100
200
300
400
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Net asset value Net asset value per share
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE – Five year NAV profile
20
BWP’000s Dec 08%
contributionDec 07
% contribution
% change
ABC Botswana 13,193 22% 7,769 14% 70%
ABC Mozambique 16,644 27% 13,301 23% 25%
ABC Tanzania* 13,171 21% 11,804 21% 12%
ABC Zambia (12,168) -20% (3,584) -6% (240%)
ABC Zimbabwe 25,490 42% 27,861 49% (9%)
Microfin Zambia 4,945 8% 210 0% 2257%
Financial institutions 61,275 100% 57,361 100% 7%
Other Operations 24,754 66,162 (63%)
TOTAL 86,029 123,523 (30%)*Adjusted for minority interest & includes TDFL
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: Attributable Profit per Subsidiary
21
All Banking operations profitable, except ABC Zambia
ABC Zambia’s poor performance due to a combination of high impairments and exchange losses in fourth quarter
Zimbabwe performance adversely affected by reduced investment income as economy reached meltdown point
Strong growth in total income in Botswana, Mozambique and Tanzania
Massive depreciation of the Zimbabwe dollar continued
Zimbabwe contribution to total income down to 15% from 35%
Quality of the book has marginally improved
INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW
22
NII increased by 72% to BWP 184m
NII contribution to total income increased from 32% to 42%
NII now covers 78% of total costs, up from 67% in 2007
All banking operations, with the exception of Zimbabwe, showed significant growth in NII
INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW
23
Non-interest income declined by 7% to BWP 216m.
Investment income in Zimbabwe declined 78% from BWP 116m to BWP 26m
Impairment charge of BWP 44m up 35% compared to 2007. Botswana and Zambia most affected.
Operating expenditure increased by 48% to BWP 237m
Increased costs are largely due to additional staff for the new retail business and strengthening of credit department.
INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW
24
BWP’000sDec 08
%
contribution Dec 07
%
contribution
%
change
ABC Botswana 82,934 21% 50,67615% 64%
ABC Mozambique 62,151 16% 41,87512% 48%
ABC Tanzania** 57,928 14% 36,43011% 59%
ABC Zambia 36,612 9% 30,2759% 21%
Microfin Zambia 49,027 12% 28,6478% 71%
ABC Zimbabwe 35,858 9% 39,402 12% (9%)
Total Fin OPS 324,510 81% 227,30567% 43%
Other Operations 76,137 19% 111,72433% (32%)
TOTAL GROUP 400,647 100% 339,029 100% 18%
*Before impairments**Including TDFL
INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Total income*
25
BWP’000s Dec 08%
contributionDec 07
% contribution
%
change
ABC Botswana 41,389 22% 29,48327% 40%
ABC Mozambique 34,295 19% 23,26922% 47%
ABC Tanzania 29,09016% 13,69913% 112%
ABC Zambia 22,782 12% 16,11615% 41%
Microfin Zambia 50,778 28% 28,86827% 76%
ABC Zimbabwe 67 0% 15,429 14% (100%)
Total Fin OPS 178,40197% 126,864118% 41%
Other Operations 6,0113% (19,576)(18%) 131%
TOTAL GROUP 184,412 100% 107,288 100% 72%
*Including TDFL
INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Net interest income
26
Ave. Yield on IEA
Ave. CostSpread
2008
Spread
2007
ABC Botswana 13.0% (10.0)% 3.0% 1.3%
ABC Mozambique 12.3% (5.8)% 6.5% 5.4%
ABC Tanzania 10.4% (6.2)% 4.2% 3.7%
ABC Zambia 15.8% (8.9)% 6.9% 4.9%
ABC Zimbabwe 1.0% 0% 1.0% 20.5%
Microfin Zambia 66.7% (22.1)% 44.6% 43.9%
INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Net interest income
Spread has increased across the board
27
BWP’000s Dec 08%
contributionDec 07
% contribution
%
change
ABC Botswana 41,545 19% 21,1939% 96%
ABC Mozambique 27,856 13% 18,6068% 50%
ABC Tanzania* 28,838 13% 23,62510% 22%
ABC Zambia 13,830 6% 14,1606% -2%
Microfin Zambia (1,752) 1% (222)-% -689%
ABC Zimbabwe 35,791 17% 23,97310% 49%
Total Fin OPS 146,108 68% 101,33544% 44%
ABCH and other 70,127 32% 130,40656% -46%
TOTAL GROUP 216,235 100% 231,741 100% -7%
*Including TDFL
INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Other income
28
BWP’000s Dec 08 Dec 07%
change
Gains investment securities 25,931 101,438 (74%)
Dividends received 3,342 3,113 7%
Fee & commission income 69,827 65,322 7%
Fx trading income & currency revaluation 29,448 9,658 205%
Fair value gains on investment properties
45,872 26,408 74%
Fair value adjustment: derivative instruments
38,585 (10,073) 483%
Rental and other income 3,230 35,875 91%
Total 216,235 231,741 (7%)
INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Other income
29
Excluding impairmentsIncrease in NII contribution due to increase in lending bookNII income covers 78% of costs, up from 67% in 2007
43%
47%
42%
32%
46%
57%
53%
58%
68%
54%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
NII
Other income
INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Total income composition
30
Cost to income ratio
75%
66%
49% 47%
59%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Due to retail banking roll outCost containment strategy
• Imperative to strengthen cost containment measures
INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Operating expenditure
31
Cost to income ratio up from 47% to 59%
Head count increased from 395 to 484 due to new retail banking and credit department staff
Employee costs accounted for 50% of total costs
Operating expenditure up 48% to BWP 237m
Marketing costs set to increase in support of growth targets and retail roll out
INCOME STATEMENT REVIEW – Operating expenditure
32
Total employee costs up 31% from BWP91m to BWP119 mEmployee costs 50% of total costsStaff compliment of 484 (2007: 395)Staff compliment up by 89 people mainly due to retail & credit
43
67
4154
38
50
109
130
153
161
1122
Botsw ana Mozambique Tanzania Zambia Zimbabw e ABCH
2007 2008
Head count per Operation
33
Balance sheet growth of 38% to BWP 4 billion
Loans and advances up by 80% to BWP 2.2 billion, reflecting impact of Tier II capital injection
Deposits increased by 40% to BWP 2.8 billion
Net asset value up by 39% from BWP 314m to BWP B438m
Zimbabwe FCTR up BWP 95m in 2008
BALANCE SHEET REVIEW
34
Total Assets (BWPm)
1,759,327 1,903,284
2,447,135
2,930,121
3,967,909
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
38% balance sheet growth compared to December 07 sustained balance sheet growth since 2004Compound annual growth rate of 23%
BALANCE SHEET REVIEW - Total Assets
35
40% growth in Deposits Botswana continues to lead with deposits of BWP 1.3 billion Growth of 118% & 63% in Mozambique & Tanzania respectively; albeit from a low
base
Botswana51%
Mozambique21%
Tanzania18%
Zambia7%
Microfin3%
Zimbabwe1%
BALANCE SHEET REVIEW - Geographic split of deposits
36
80% growth in Loans. Growth in excess of 48% in all countries except Zimbabwe Growth shows impact of capital injection in late 2007
Botswana33%
Mozambique17%
Tanzania28%
Zambia17%
Microfin4%
Zimbabwe1%
BALANCE SHEET REVIEW - Geographical Split of Loans
37
BWP’000Capital*
Dec-08
FCTR
Dec-08
Capital*
Dec-07
FCTR
Dec-07
ABC Botswana 114,012 - 99,856 -
ABC Mozambique 157,774 13,951 104,712 (7,789)
ABC Tanzania** 143,015 117 96,601 7,231
ABC Zambia 81,952 5,021 83,725 3,316
Microfin Zambia 20,868 2,110 15,275 2,686
ABC Zimbabwe 143,484 (500,857) 110,035 (405,766)
*Including Tier II**Including TDFL
Zimbabwe FCTR up BWP 95m since Dec 07
BALANCE SHEET REVIEW - Capital
38
Dec 08 Dec 07
Botswana 16% 18%
Mozambique 28% 44%
Tanzania 15% 28%
Zambia 24% 29%
ABC Zimbabwe 31% 26%
Healthy capital adequacy ratios
BALANCE SHEET REVIEW - Capital Adequacy
39
Rights issue postponed as a result of the turmoil in the global financial markets
IFC subscription of 13.9 million shares, bringing shareholding to 10.7% in January 2008
IFC convertible loan still to be drawn down as Group is in the process of clearing outstanding conditions precedent. Draw down imminent.
All conditions precedent on the CVCI convertible loan fulfilled. Drawdown in the coming weeks
CAPITALISATION
40
Retail Banking head office now appropriately staffed
First few branches to be opened in July 2009
Funds raised from IFC and CVCI to be used for capitalisation of this business
Largely driven by state of the art technology
RETAIL BANKING
41
Need to strengthen operations in the face of the uncertainty in global markets
Directors propose that a final divided be passed
DIVIDEND
42
Environment expected to be challenging during most of 2009 and 2010 due to a deterioration in the global markets
Major thrust will be consolidation and ensuring modest growth notwithstanding high costs as a result of retail banking
Proactive management of the loan book
Support clients in the face of adversity
Introducing fresh thinking and smart banking
OUTLOOK & CHALLENGES
43
Changing the business model –People, processes, systems and culture
Branch profitability still estimated to be between 12 to 24 months
Deposit mobilization remains a key focus area for the group, particularly in Zambia
OUTLOOK & CHALLENGES
THANK YOU