EUROPEAN COMMISSION EUROSTAT Directorate F: Social statistics

Doc. DSS/2016/Oct/3.2

ITEM 3.2

A VISION FOR CENSUS STATISTICS AFTER 2021

MEETING OF THE EUROPEAN DIRECTORS OF SOCIAL STATISTICS

LUXEMBOURG, 4 AND 5 OCTOBER 2016

BECH BUILDING, ROOM QUETELET

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1. INTRODUCTION

The annexed paper presents a possible vision for the collection of European census-type

statistics after 2021. This draft that has been prepared by four national representatives of the

Task Force on future EU censuses, working together with Eurostat.

Members of the DSS are asked to respond to the invitation at the beginning of the

annexed paper.

2. BACKGROUND

Much of the work so far of the Task Force on future EU censuses has been on the 2021 data

collection. This follows from the request of the DSS to prioritise work on the details of the

2021 collection.

At its meeting in March 2016, the Task Force agreed that a paper would be drafted for the

DSS meeting of October 2016, setting out a possible vision for the collection of European

census-type statistics after 2021. The Task Force representatives of France, Germany, the

Netherlands and the UK agreed to assist Eurostat in drafting this paper. The paper has been

discussed during the meeting of the Task Force (21-22 June) and the DSS Board (28-29

June). The comments of the Task Force have been presented orally to the DSS Board. The

DSS Board supported the vision for the post-2021 Census and agreed with the next steps

proposed. It also emphasized the need for coordination with demographic statistics and

inclusion of the geo-referenced grid data.

The current version in Annex 1 incorporates both sets of comments and was reviewed in a

written procedure in July by the Task Force.

At the request of the DSS Board, this document is also being circulated to members of the

Working Group on Population and Housing Censuses and the Working Group on Population

Statistics.

As a background to the proposed vision, the paper presents some of the common

developments that are being seen in many Member States, including the growing use of data

from administrative sources and user demands for more frequent and more timely data than

are currently available from a decennial census. At the same time the paper also notes the

constraints under which the post-2021 census must be developed, such as the severe budget

restrictions on many NSIs and the likely continuing diversity between countries in terms of

the data sources and methods used for the census.

In parallel, Eurostat has started consulting with the European Commission Directorates

General that are key users of social and population statistics in order to better understand

their priorities for data after 2021. This consultation will support the continuing work on the

post-2021 census. A summary of the first discussions is attached as Annex 2.

As additional background information, Annex 3 contains a summary of the results of a

questionnaire on the post-2021 census that was used to consult the Census Working Group.

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These results were presented for discussion to the Task Force on future EU censuses in June

2016,

3. FUTURE WORK

The future work described in the paper will incorporate the recommendations of the DSS.

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Annex 1

A vision for the post-2021 census

The members of the DSS are invited to:

Note the process and principles that have been followed in preparing this vision;

Comment on and support the direction of work as presented in this document and

its key features:

o annually updated data to be collected from the mid-2020s onwards;

o these annual data to be available for detailed geographical levels (NUTS3

and/or LAU2) with annual population counts (persons by place of usual

residence) available for a geo-referenced grid;

o annual data to be available within 12 months of the reference date;

o a more detailed and comprehensive (relative to the annual data) decennial

(2031) data collection to be retained – the exact content and nature of this

collection to be defined at a later date.

o Renew the mandate of the Task Force.

1. Introduction

This paper reviews the main issues that will need to be addressed in preparing the post-2021

European census data collection. It presents the landscape against which the post-2021 census

will be developed, including a series of possibilities and constraints that must be taken into

account, as well as a vision of what a post-2021 census could look like. The changes to the

European census data collection being discussed here reflect similar patterns of changes that

are taking place or are being considered in many NSIs. These include an increased use of

administrative data, a move towards more frequent collection of some census-type data, as

well as a more fundamental consideration of the future role of the census as part of the wider

system for social and population data. Potentially, these are far-reaching changes that will

mean that the census is, in many countries, unlikely to continue in its current form.

Thirty-two European countries published their Census 2011 hypercubes on the European

Census Hub. This system gives easy access to a vast amount of information on these

countries. However, the number of users has not been as high as such an undertaking

deserves and that one would expect of such a rich data source. A key reason for this

underutilisation is the lack of timeliness of the data. When the Census Hub officially opened

towards the end of 2014, all of the data were 3 years old – the census date having been in

2011. In many European countries, national publications of 2011 data were released before

the Census 2011 results were published in the Census Hub. It is clear that, for European

Census statistics to become more relevant, more timely information has to be published.

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The Census 2021 will, like the Census 2011, be based on Regulation (EC) 763/2008 on

population and housing censuses. This gives some stability regarding the content of the

statistics provided from European Censuses, and the Census Hub will be ready to accept 2021

data as soon as they are made available by NSIs. However, the full results of the European

Census of 2021 for all countries might be available only by the legal deadline for providing

the results of the Census 2021 - 31 March 2024. This implies that, for some countries, users

would already have access to 2021 census national data before these data are available in the

Census Hub.

There is also an expected user need for more frequent census-like data, especially on

population topics. This need is reflected in Eurostat’s plans to develop a strategy for a

fundamental redesign of European census-type statistics after the next census round. Given

the focus on population topics, these changes to the census are separate from – but must be

consistent with - the wider ongoing modernisation of European social statistics. A key aspect

will be to ensure a complementarity of data to meet key user needs, while avoiding

duplication of data collection.

2. Defining the landscape against which the post-2021 census will be developed – needs,

constraints, differing national frameworks

2.1 Objectives of the post-2021 census

The main objectives for the post-2021 census will be to:

meet users’ needs – taking into account the fact that we are looking at least 10 years

ahead and that it is therefore difficult to predict in detail what these user needs will be;

comply with the essential features of a population and housing census – including

consideration of whether all of these features, as currently defined, are still relevant

given the changing role and nature of the census within the overall statistical system;

remain feasible within a highly constrained budgetary context;

take into account the fact that, despite some common trends, countries will continue

to differ greatly in terms of the approaches used in conducting a census;

2.2 Expected user needs

More frequent data: Society, and the needs of society, are changing at an increasing rate. As

a result, it is difficult to develop, implement and evaluate policies if data are only available

every ten years. There is a clear need for more frequent statistics, although not necessarily for

all census topics. Data on different topics may be needed at different frequencies.

Census topics: More work will be needed to define which topics should continue to be

included in the census, at what frequency these topics should be collected, and which topics

may be better covered by other data collections within the statistical system.

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Preliminary discussions between Eurostat and other Commission Directorates General that

are key users of census data have again highlighted the current and predicted future

importance of data relating to migration, mobility and migrant populations. Other census

topics are also very likely to be needed to analyse and interpret these data. The priority of this

migration-related information has been stressed by a range of Directorates General that

expect to use these data to support a variety of different policy areas.

Timeliness: As well as having more frequent – even annual – data for some topics, users will

need data that are available in a more timely manner. Ideally, annual data on population

topics that meet key user needs would be available within approximately twelve months of

the reference date. Some more complex (from the statistical point of view) topics may require

eighteen or twenty-four months for full processing.

2.3 The requirements of a new vision for future census data

Quality: The data will need to be of high quality, in particular accurate. Censuses have

frequently been viewed as a form of standard against which other statistics are assessed and

calibrated. Although the census may, in the future, be seen more as an integrated part of the

statistical system and not a separate exercise, the need for high quality and reliable data will

remain. The needs for data that can be used to re-base and validate other statistics, and for a

reliable frame for surveys, will still need to be met.

Comparability: Data must be comparable over time and in space (inside a country and

between different countries).

Relevance: Statistics must meet users’ needs. This relates both to the topics to be covered,

their frequency, and to the geographical levels for which data are available. With regard to

geography, the best approach to ensure long-term comparability of data may be to have grid

data to avoid the problem of outputs based on administrative/statistical areas that may change

over time.

2.4 Essential features of censuses

The CES Recommendations for the 2020 round of censuses (and for the previous 2010

round) give a set of essential features by which a census can be defined. Given the changing

nature of the census, and its potential repositioning as a more integrated part of the statistical

system, it may be appropriate to examine whether certain of these essential features should be

changed for the post-2021 census. Generally though, the existence of a set of agreed essential

features helps to ensure that the different national approaches to the census continue to

provide reliable and comparable data.

Individual enumeration: could be reconsidered, given the likely increased use of

administrative data that may be linked across different sources, and the use of data

based on samples. It will be important that the data available allow for cross-

tabulations, although whether to produce a microdata base on which to base these

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cross-tabulations will be a national decision depending on the data sources and

methods used.

Simultaneity: “referring to a unique well-defined reference period” should be kept in

order to draw the picture of the population in a given time.

Universality, small area data: should be kept. They are likely to be most important in

defining the essential characteristics of the post-2021 census.

Defined periodicity: could be revised.

2.5 The constraints we can expect

In a survey of the thirty-two EU and EFTA countries undertaken by the UNECE in 2015,

twenty-five countries either were moving or expected to have moved by 2021 to a statistical

system that could enable more frequent (e.g. annual) supply of census type statistics to

Eurostat. It is assumed here that the types of system that would allow annual data production

are the register-based systems, combined approaches based on administrative sources

supported by surveys to gather additional information on characteristics not included in the

administrative sources available to the NSI, and/or to measure for over and under coverage in

the underlying sources, and the rolling census.

However, all NSIs recognised a need to move away from a traditional census exercise and

had plans to examine the feasibility of new methods for producing census-type statistics in

the future.

There are also a number of constraints that NSIs are experiencing in moving to a system of

more frequent census-type statistics. These constraints are:

Access to data: In many cases, more frequent statistics will require the use of data from

administrative sources. This is in line with a common trend in many countries towards the

increased statistical use of administrative data. However, underpinning this is the availability

of data within the NSI. A vision that delivers more frequent census type statistics can only be

achieved with access to regular data that fulfils user needs. Latest update of the regulation on

European statistics gives NSIs rights to gain access to more administrative data. However

today, in possibly the majority of European countries, NSIs do not currently have good

enough access to administrative data that are comprehensive enough or of sufficient quality

to allow them to undertake a census based predominantly on administrative data.

NSI access to administrative data may be limited as a result of legal and administrative

barriers (notably data protection issues). However, simply having access to administrative

data is not sufficient to undertake a register-based census. To fully benefit from the use of

administrative sources, NSIs need to have the possibility of linking the individual sources at

record level.

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A further constraint may be the absence of certain key information in the administrative

sources available in a country.

Methods: The methods required to bring different sources together and produce more

frequent census type statistics may not be mature enough to deliver the required level of

coverage and quality.

Quality: Adopting and validating the use of new methods and data sources depends on the

quality of the data obtained from these alternative (administrative) sources. In particular

coverage and accuracy issues amongst alternative sources may hamper or slow the movement

to new methods of producing census type statistics. Additionally, mechanisms need to be in

place to ensure that the owners of the alternative data sources inform the NSI about quality

changes, and to enable NSIs to influence changes and improve quality.

Public acceptability: As new methods for producing census type statistics are likely to rely

heavily on the use of administrative sources, public acceptability is critical to a successful

transition. The public must understand and be supportive of new approaches and uses of their

information. The burden on the public must also be understood in this context with new

methods considering any additional public burden.

User acceptability: Census statistics are frequently used in the allocation of public funds and

in the evaluation of policy. Users of the statistics must have confidence in the methods used

and the quality of both the source data and the statistical outputs. This implies the use of

reliable approaches that can be readily understood by users.

Compatibility with the national remit of NSIs: The NSI remit and support from the

government may also constrain an NSI’s ability to move to an alternative method. In

particular, where countries rely on other statistical agencies within the country to produce

census type statistics these agencies may have different motives/strategies and timetables for

moving in a similar direction; or countries may not have the backing/support of their

government to make this transition. External support and pressure, such as resource or

European legislation may stimulate change.

Costs: In most countries, budgets allocated to NSIs are decreasing. This may be a constraint,

as additional resources may be needed to develop methods to move to an alternative

approach. Although the use of administrative data may reduce costs in the long-term, in the

shorter-term there are likely to be significant transitional costs.

3. Defining a vision for the post-2021 census

3.1 More relevant census information

A fundamental goal for all European countries should be the development of a post-2021

strategy that provides relevant census results for data users. Based on the 2011 data provision,

it seems that greater relevance for the census can be achieved if countries agree to more

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frequent and timelier census publications. A correct balance will need to be found between

the content of the publications (level of detail, accuracy, etc.) on the one hand and timeliness

of the publications on the other hand. Moreover, it will be important to prepare a proposal

that is feasible for both countries with and countries without field enumeration. Although

many countries move from traditional censuses towards combined and register-based

censuses, it is clear that different approaches towards census methodology will remain within

Europe.

Since 2011 the reference year of the European Censuses has been harmonised, but many

different Census Days exist throughout the reference year. Ideally, a significant part of the

annual census data will be published in the year after Census Day. A possibility would be to

develop the annual data as an eventual replacement to the existing annual demographic data

collection, working to extend the variables covered in the demography data collection and, in

particular, increasing the level of geographical detail. For the annual updates to replace the

annual demographic data collection would require that the reference date was at the

beginning of the year. However, for some variables, it will be difficult to have a reference

day at the beginning of the calendar year. This could be solved by allowing a reference day

late in the autumn of the previous year. Such a proxy was already implemented in the last

censuses in a number of countries.

3.2 Planning of annual updates

When it comes to the content of annual census results, there is a need to be restrictive. It is

important to produce census data on a more detailed regional level (LAU 2 or NUTS 3), but

to achieve good timeliness and policy relevance, the annual census results would have to

focus on demographic variables. This implies that the annual updates only concern the

Population Census and not the Housing Census. The tables of annual census results should

not be as high-dimensional as the current decennial hypercubes. However, cross-

classifications by age groups or sex seem feasible.

There is a growing user need for grid-based data. Among other reasons, this is because grid

squares are more stable over time than, for example, municipality boundaries. It is therefore

important to plan to include grid squares in the annual updates. As the production of geo-

referenced data is time-consuming and cost-demanding, and the level of experience with geo-

grid referenced census data differs greatly between different European countries, a good

starting point for annual updates is to begin with annual population counts (place of usual

residence). If that approach succeeds, the annual updates could gradually be extended (by

level of detail1 and/or topics) without losing timeliness. It may also be an option to be flexible

with the inclusion of additional variables with respect to user needs.

European countries are conducting a Census 2021 and will provide the results not later than

in March 2024. The first opportunity to publish first annual census results will therefore be to

publish an update of the European Census 2021 results in 2025, based on reference dates in

1 This may be of relevance for selected urban areas.

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2024. However, this planning is challenging and depends heavily on available resources in

European countries and on the content of the first release. A transition period from the current

status to the future set-up may be needed. Clearly, a new legal base replacing the current

Regulation 763/2008 would be needed. Finally, the annual census updates should be

integrated into the annual work programmes of the national and European Statistical systems,

including ensuring the coherence of developments with the overall modernisation of social

statistics.

3.3 Methodology for more timely census data

To meet the growing demand for more frequent and timely data one can implement a number

of different methodologies assuring quality outputs. Register-based countries can make use of

registers that are available relatively quickly, for example the Population Registers.

Traditional census countries could produce annual results based on a survey – the content and

sample size of which would depend on the topics and level of detail required for the annual

data. France has a rolling census, with a moving average used for the publications. The

current approach in France with a five year cycle does not make annual updates in the next

calendar year possible. However, it could be an option to use not just information about year t

to publish in year t+1, but also information about the years t-4 up to t-1. Of course, some

extrapolation is then necessary, but this will probably give better results than relying on data

collected in one year only.

3.4 Census 2031

From a global perspective it is likely that there will be a European Census round in 2031

embedded in a world-wide UN Census Round. There is a clear requirement for a full census

providing relevant topics in conjunction with the annual updates. An important question is

what the Census 2031 will look like. As the Census 2031 is still many years away, only a

rough sketch can be given now.

Even without the possible adoption of annual updates, the Census Round 2031 is likely to

differ significantly from the 2021 census round. The 2031 round will, for example, rely far

more on administrative sources than any preceding census round. It is likely that the annual

updates between the Censuses of 2021 and 2031 will help to make the process of the Census

2031 easier and more efficient. Nevertheless, the total cost of the annual updates between the

Censuses of 2021 and 2031 combined with the costs of the Census 2031 will probably be

larger than the cost of a Census 2031 without annual updates. However, as noted above,

annual updates could replace the annual demographic data collections and (some) regional

(spatial) collections, thereby reducing costs and preventing a duplication of work.

Additionally the costs of the introduction of annual updates have to be weighed against the

extra and more timely information that will become available. It is likely that a cost benefit

analysis of introducing annual updates will be positive. A more accurate analysis can be

made after the first update becomes available. Finally, an evaluation of the Census 2021

should give some information on expected user needs regarding, for example, relevant topics,

the provision of cross-tabulations, regional detail for a future full Census in 2031.

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3.5 Scenarios

The censuses primarily based on decennial (or every five years) field data collection limits

the possibility of annual updates. However, in countries conducting such censuses the

increased use of administrative data is expected. Consequently, based on this assumption, at

least three possible scenarios might be envisaged. These scenarios are for individual topics

and are classified according to an increasing level of difficulty in obtaining the necessary data

from administrative sources:

1. The proliferation of the use of administrative data would allow the extension of the annual

updates to more topics, either provided annually or in a system of annual added modules

concentrated on topics of punctual relevance. This could be imagined for administrative

sources that are relatively easy to process.

2. The periodic production of a much richer set of census data based on administrative

sources (similar to the current census but based on administrative data). This would be for

those administrative source data that would still require significant processing overhead. The

frequency of this data production would depend on the degree of difficulty (both in terms of

time and resources required) associated with processing the administrative data.

3. This scenario could materialise where relevant topics could not be obtained from

administrative data (in a significant number of countries) and a special data collection would

be needed. The need for an additional data collection, the topics covered and its scale, cannot

yet be predicted. For example, this might be the equivalent to a de facto decennial census for

some topics. As noted at 3.4 above, although there are concerted efforts within the ESS to

proliferate the use of administrative data (e.g. ESS.VIP. ADMIN project), it is impossible

today to predict the situation in 10 years' time with respect to the provision of administrative

data.

It is clear that extra costs are involved in producing annual census updates. Some countries

have expressed a preference for conducting a complete census every five years instead of

every ten years. Currently, in Europe only Ireland has a census every five years. However, it

should be noted that conducting a census every five years instead of every ten years roughly

doubles the census costs. At the same time the timeliness of the results is still not very good.

Therefore, a five-yearly European Census is not a good alternative. Only with annual updates

between decennial censuses can the timeliness of the European census results will improve

substantially and justify census budgets

4. The way forward

A successful implementation of the vision based on an EU regulation will need to address a

number of key challenges. These include:

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Agreeing the content, timing and reference period and dates of the annual (and less

frequent) updates;

The rationalisation of the existing demographic and migration regulations to reduce

the burden on suppliers, in particular assuring coherence of topics definitions

The agreement of regional levels and considering the extent of requirements for data

on a grid-based geography (eg. grid-squares).

Defining a starting period for the annual updates which is feasible and considers the

maturity/readiness of all of the EU members to move to such a vision.

Undertaking a cost-benefit analysis where any additional costs (or savings) are fully

understood by DSS to support a move to the new vision.

Undertaking a user consultation exercise which demonstrates a clear user need to

ensure that only the statistics with a clear user need are collected.

Agreeing on a work schedule and a timetable towards a full European legal basis

including a framework regulation and linked implementing regulations. The deadlines

for the national implementation of the new European data requirements must take into

account the time that NSIs will need to develop appropriate methods and data source

access.

Adjusting the mandate and reviewing the membership of the Task Force to support

the prospective work that has to be done.

Summary

The redesign of a census is a multidimensional undertaking. The major elements of the vision

of a future census for EU and EFTA countries are listed below. The DSS is asked to comment

on these as individual elements and as part of an overall system. The DSS is also asked to

indicate any fundamental elements that are missed here.

Annually updated statistics from around the middle of the 2020s decade, starting with a

core set of demographic and migration topics (e.g. age, sex, country of citizenship, place

of residence 12 months previously) with a few or no cross-tabulations.

Flexibility regarding the topics of annual updates depending on data availability, costs

and user needs.

Timeliness – annual data to be produced approximately 12 months after the reference

date.

Data provision of annual updates on a detailed regional level (LAU 2 or NUTS 3) and/or

of annual population counts (place of usual residence) by geo referenced grid;

Possibly the introduction of occasional added modules (i.e. sets of extra tables that might

imply additional topics) linked to the annual data to provide more frequent data on some

topics, where data are required more frequently than every decade but where annual data

are not necessary – depending on the availability of appropriate administrative data.

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Integration of annual updates into the annual work programmes of the national and

European Statistical systems.

A separate and later decision on the form and content of a full census in 2031 to

supplement the annual data.

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Annex 2

Consultation meeting with Commission DGs on future needs for census-

type statistics

Brussels, 25 May 2016

Summary of discussions and key points raised

DG Eurostat (ESTAT)

DG Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN)

DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion (EMPL)

DG Regional and Urban Policy (REGIO)

DG Justice and Consumers (JUST)

DG Migration and Home Affairs (HOME)

DG Education and Culture (EAC)

After a short presentation of all participants and their involvement and interest in the census

data, ESTAT explained the work that has been done for Census 2011 and the currently

ongoing work for census 2021, as well as the preparations for the post-2021 data collection.

ESTAT informed the meeting about the ongoing work of ESTAT and the Task Force on future

EU censuses to develop a long-term strategy for the development of EU census-type data on

population and housing after 2021.

As part of this work, it was important to consult with key Commission DGs that are users of

population and housing census data. This was the reason for the meeting being organised.

ESTAT wanted to understand more about the long-term priorities of the key DGs for these

data and to explain some of the choices that would need to be made when developing these

data for the next decade.

A short discussion paper from ESTAT had been circulated before the meeting (see annex).

This highlighted a number of constraints that would need to be taken into account in defining

the post-2021 data collection. It was noted that the national statistical institutes were under

severe pressure to reduce the costs of producing statistics. Similarly, although there were

moves in many Member States to make greater use of data from administrative registers, this

was not a universal change throughout Europe. Any data collection proposed would need to

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be feasible and affordable, given the great differences between Member States in terms of

census data sources and methods.

ESTAT had asked the DGs to consider responses to the following questions:

What, for your DG, are the most important census variables? What cross-tabulations

between different variables are needed? Which data are essential, which would be

'nice to have' and which data are likely to become less relevant?

Which data (what variables) would be a priority for you to have on an annual basis?

Are there other data that, although not needed annually, should ideally be available

more frequently than every 10 years?

It is assumed that annual data would be made available around 12 months after the

reference date. Would it still be acceptable to have data available with a longer delay

– eg. 18 months – especially if this allowed more detailed or complex data to be

produced?

What level of geographical detail would be needed? (eg. NUTS3, LAU2, 1 km² grid).

Is geographical detail more/less important than having more complex/detailed cross-

tabulations?

After this presentation, a round table discussion followed where the representative of each

DG expressed the issues, concerns and topics that were of the highest importance for the

work of their DG, taking a long-term perspective as to their likely data needs around the

middle of the next decade. Given that a future annual data collection might supersede some of

the existing annual data (such as certain data from the LFS or the annual demographic

statistics), representatives were invited to consider their data needs more widely and to not

just focus on the current census variables.

DG ECFIN

Stressed that for productivity and labour market analysis, all the topics covering

occupation (OCC), education (EDU), industry (IND) and migration are, by far, the

most important. The potential difficulties of applying ILO definitions to labour market

variables when using administrative data sources were seen as concerns.

Information on population growth and migration would be important for work on

population ageing, fiscal surveillance and sustainability of social security and

pensions.

Information on housing might be important to calculate imputed rents of owner-

occupied dwellings – used for national accounts statistics.

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A lower priority was given legal marital status (LMS) and to regional breakdowns

generally.

DG HOME

Wanted to know more about the links between the post-2021 process and the ongoing

process of integration of European social statistics, including interactions with

household surveys such as the EU-LFS and developments in the use of administrative

data (including the current Eurostat Population/Migration data.

A high priority for DG HOME would be migration-related variables - Place of birth

(POB), Country of citizenship (COC), duration of residence, acquisition of

citizenship. The level of education (EDU) of migrant populations was also important.

These data would be used to improve and monitor policies relating to legal migration

and integration.

Some current work uses the annual data from the LFS. There was a concern not to

lose information by moving annual data production to administrative sources. Equally

though, the small numbers of migrants (particularly third country nationals) included

in the LFS samples in some Member States cause difficulties with unreliable

estimates (and even more at regional/local levels) – the use of administrative data

might help overcome this problem.

Data were ideally needed for detailed breakdowns of topics and at regional NUTS2 or

NUTS3 levels.

Information on the Country of Birth of Parents would be important but it was

expected that this would be available in the future from the annual core LFS (and not

just from migration-related modules).

Another data need of policy makers concerns longitudinal data that would allow following

the situation of the same individuals across time and space (i.e. if they move across EU

Member States). DG HOME understands that this may not be possible to achieve.

DG EAC

Also interested in detailed educational levels crossed with POB and COC.

Moreover, EAC was interested in having information about the family/parental

relations between enumerated persons.

A particularly important policy area was to quantify and reduce the problem of

NEETS (young persons not in education, employment or training).

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DG JUST

Legislation relating to free movement requires data on intra-EU migrants and their

partners, descendants and direct dependants.

Strong interest in the country of origin of migrants and in the distinction between EU

and non-EU citizens

Interest too in legal marital status (LMS) by COC of spouse/partner.

Regional breakdowns were of lower importance. The time lag in data availability was

not important.

DG REGIO

Strong request to have POB, COC, EDU, OCC and current activity status (CAS)

broken down to at least NUTS 3 level. These data should be available annually if

possible.

The proposal for some data to be available for 1km2 grids was strongly welcomed.

The grid squares are stable over time whereas LAU 2 boundaries change quite

frequently (particularly for some Member States) thus providing better data

comparability over time. For data collected at the LAU2 level it is crucial that these

should be accompanied by the georeferenced boundaries of the corresponding LAU2

units. However, EAC are also aware of the workload required to produce grid data

and suggested that annual grid data might be limited to population by sex and age.

Other variables would be needed at grid level at least every 5 years. The balance

between data production at grid level or at LAU2 level should take into account

feasibility, timeliness and disclosure control issues.

While many of the data required for the development of cohesion policy are required

at NUTS2 level, there is also a clear policy requirement for NUTS3 level data

(especially when considering border regions, territorial typologies, etc.). There was

also a clear interest in smaller areas (LAU2 and/or grid data) to produce statistics

relating to cities or by degree of urbanisation

DG EMPL

In the area of labour market, the need is for Current Activity Statius (CAS) (especially

unemployment by NUTS2). For instance, the unemployment-to-population ratio at

NUTS2 is used for LFS as one of its precision requirement, assessment criteria for

social funds, current and future are based on regional unemployment.

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The variables related to migration and mobility: POB and COC, duration of residence,

residence 12 months previously (ROY), and family and migration characteristics are

of highest importance. They would provide solid information for policies and analysis

related to migration and mobility.

o They also could be geographically disaggregated, including at level below

NUTS-3 (with longer lags acceptable), although a higher level (NUTS-2?)

may be useful to have more speedily. Disaggregation by age, including

information especially for younger people, and anything to do with

employment (hope they contribute).

Ageing will be a key challenge and it is to be addressed at local level. NUTS-3 and

even lower if at all possible. Disaggregated by sex and age (maybe 5-year groups)

would be very useful.

o In this respect, timing is not crucial as things will move slowly, meaning that

waiting 18 months to have more detailed results would be fine. Even if not all

countries manage to make good use of administrative data, having the

geographical disaggregation for many (so not all but at least a good share of

the EU) would be an advantage.

o On this topic, just having the population totals disaggregated by sex and age

(maybe 5-year groups) would be very useful, as a basis for household surveys.

In addition (and on top of employment), information on household

composition and housing would be valuable, in the context of active

ageing. Household composition would also be useful in child policy.

Information on housing status was important. Important to keep data on housing and

on primary and secondary homelessness but the data collection method on

homelessness should improve. Homelessness is policy priority, not least as

homelessness has been increasing EU-wide and access to affordable housing is

restricted.

o The big-sample, comprehensive census offers the best opportunity to capture

trends (which are anyway slowly developing regarding housing markets etc.).

Housing is linked to many social outcomes and EU policies we drive, from

breaking intergenerational poverty, active inclusion, social services provision,

accessibility of buildings for disabled people, energy poverty so data could be

widely used.

Although much of the required data could (and already were) be taken from the LFS,

small sample sizes (for regions and smaller population sub-groups) caused problems.

The possibility of moving to more frequent data was welcomed – ideally annual data

but at least every 5 years if not annual.

The data should be available at least down to NUTS2 level, but NUTS-3 and even

lower if at all possible, depending on the topic.

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Overall, the Census was used and will be used to support legislation and policy in a

number of social and employment areas, migration, mobility, including pensions,

population aging, active ageing and equality.

All DGs that are key users of census data have highlighted the current and predicted future

importance of data relating to migration, mobility and migrant populations. Other census

topics are also very likely to be needed to analyse and interpret these data, for example

information on the level of educational of migrants and activity status of migrants as well as

the entire population. The priority of this migration-related information has been stressed by a

range of DGs that expect to use these data to support a variety of different policy areas.

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Annex to the consultation with Commission DGs

Eurostat consultation on priorities for post-2021 census data

1. Background

On 25 May, Eurostat will organise a consultation meeting with key Commission users of

population and housing census data to discuss priorities for the collection of census-type data

after the next round of decennial censuses in 2021. This short paper is intended to be a guide

to the discussions.

Many Member States are making significant changes to the ways in which population and

housing data are collected. There are moves towards a far greater use of data from

administrative sources – as opposed to traditional door-to-door census data collection.

Increasingly too, there is a view that at least some census-type data are needed more

frequently than every 10 years – with some data available annually. In parallel, there are

pressures at national level to make significant reductions in the costs of producing these

statistics.

Jointly with a group of national statistical institutes, Eurostat is developing a strategy for a

European-level collection of data that would be compatible with the evolving national

systems and that would fulfil the priority needs of data users. It is currently envisaged that

these annual data would be collected from around 2024 onwards.

Certain priorities have already been voiced by Commission DGs and by Member States.

These include maintaining/increasing the level of information related to migrants and

mobility, and providing data for small geographical areas (including the development of a

limited set of data for a 1 km² grid). These priorities are being included in the arrangements

for the 2021 census and will, if possible, be maintained for the post-2021 data collection.

2. Issues and constraints

It will not be possible to meet all of the potential user needs for data. In discussing priorities,

it is useful to keep in mind a number of inter-related issues and constraints are likely to

impact on what can realistically be proposed for the future data collection.

Data frequency and timeliness

One option being considered is to collect a limited range of data on an annual basis, with a

more complete data collection being held less frequently (possibly every 5 or 10 years). It is

not practically or financially feasible for all census data to be produced annually so it is

important to focus on those priority topics for which there is a clear need for more frequent

data. This should be driven by the speed with which the relevant phenomena evolve within

European society. For example, the level of educational attainment in the population might

change only gradually, meaning that data every 5 or 10 years would be sufficient. In contrast,

current activity status (including employment and unemployment) or migration rates

(internally, from other Member States, or from outside of the EU) may be expected to change

more rapidly, meaning that fresh data every year would be valuable to help develop and

21

monitor policy. However, as noted by several Commission DGs in an earlier consultation,

although certain variables change only slowly, it would be useful to have up-to-date

corresponding information for these variables in order to fully analyse the faster changing

variables.

Similar considerations apply to the timeliness of the data – how soon the data are available to

users after the reference date. If data are to be made available within 12 months of the

reference data, it is likely that only a limited number of variables and cross-tabulations will

be possible.

The provision of annual data within 12 months of the reference date is likely to be feasible

only for those variables where data can be based predominantly on administrative data

sources. Although the potential need to have a larger number of variables available annually

is understood, this is unlikely to be acceptable to Member States. This issue is discussed

further below.

Costs

A key factor underlying the re-development of census processes and data sources at national

level is the need to reduce the costs of producing population and housing data. The post-2021

EU census data collection will not be acceptable to Member States if it means that they

cannot implement their planned reductions in the financial and staff resources required for

these data.

There is pressure to reduce the scale and complexity of the data collection. This includes

identifying and removing from the collection those variables that may have become less

relevant over time. For example, many Member States have noted that information on

availability of a water supply or toilet in a dwelling – as included in the current EU census

legislation - is of little or no value when almost all dwellings are expected to have such

facilities. Similarly, information on legal marital status may be of limited policy relevance in

societies where many couples live in consensual unions and where a large proportion of

children are born to parents who are not married. Member States have also sought to identify

cross-tabulations of different variables that are no longer needed, or parts of the data

collection that may only be needed with relatively limited levels of detail or only for large /

less detailed geographical areas.

Clearly, the more expensive or difficult a variable is to collect, the harder it is to justify its

continued collection. This means that a priority must be given to those variables that can be

produced from administrative data sources, with little or no additional data collection specific

to the census exercise. If an additional data collection – such as an extensive sample survey –

is needed just to allow a few particular 'hard to produce' variables to be collected, then the

marginal cost of those variables will be very large.

Focus on administrative data sources

Statistical data in many Member States will be based largely on information extracted from

administrative sources – either directly from single sources such as population registers or

22

through the linkage of information available across a range of administrative sources. This

will particularly be the case for annual data where the costs of collecting additional

information from additional questionnaires or sample surveys would be very high. Different

Member States will make use of different administrative sources, and will use these sources

differently, according to national availability and preferences. However, any future census

strategy – particularly aspects that relate to annual data - will need to take into account the

widespread and increasing use of administrative data sources.

Certain variables may be particularly difficult to produce using administrative data. For

example, current activity status – based on the ILO definitions – cannot readily be produced

if the only data available are those contained in administrative sources associated with social

security, tax and unemployment. Similarly, information on the size and composition of

families and households can be difficult to produce where population registers show only

individuals sharing a dwelling but do not contain complete information on the

family/parental/partnership relationships between these individuals.

Timescale for development – focus on long-term data needs

The data collection under consideration here is likely to be introduced around 2024. There

may be some delays in this, and there may also be a need for a transitional period during

which some variables or cross-tabulations are not available. Although it is acknowledged

that it is difficult to predict accurately data needs almost a decade ahead, there should be a

focus on foreseeable long-term needs for data. This exercise must as far as possible be

considered separately from current short-term priorities.

3. Key questions

While taking into account the issues and constraints considered above, we would like to

address the following questions:

What, for your DG, are the most important census variables? What cross-tabulations

between different variables are needed? Which data are essential, which would be

'nice to have' and which data are likely to become less relevant?

Which data (what variables) would be a priority for you to have on an annual basis?

Are there other data that, although not needed annually, should ideally be available

more frequently than every 10 years?

It is assumed that annual data would be made available around 12 months after the

reference date. Would it still be acceptable to have data available with a longer delay

– eg. 18 months – especially if this allowed more detailed or complex data to be

produced?

23

What level of geographical detail would be needed? (eg. NUTS 3, LAU2, 1 km² grid).

Is geographical detail more/less important than having more complex/detailed cross-

tabulations?

4. Timetable and consultation

Eurostat is working with a Task Force of national statistical institute census experts to review

and develop the strategy for the post-2021 collection of population and housing data. This

Task Force reports to a Eurostat-organised group of the national Directors of Social Statistics.

In October 2016, the Task Force will present a report on its preliminary work on the post-

2021 census to the Directors of Social Statistics group, seeking its comments and approval of

suggested options for further development.

Between now and 2018, there will be a period of ongoing technical development, tests and

pilot exercises. The aim will be to have an agreed technical proposal that will be implemented

through new legislation to be prepared and introduced in the period 2018-2021. When the

new legislation comes into force, Member States will need some years to prepare and

implement the necessary measures at national level. In discussions so far, the first reference

date has provisionally been set at 2024.

Many different options and approaches are still under consideration. However, as work

progresses, the number of options will be reduced, as a more concrete plan is developed and

tested. For this reason, it is important that key user needs for these data are expressed and

explained early in the development process, so that these needs can be taken into account as

far as is possible. It will be possible for Commission DGs that are census data users to take

part in the Task Force as observers, or to receive copies of the minutes of its meetings.

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Annex 3

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

EUROSTAT

Directorate F: Social statistics

Unit F-2: Population and Migration

ESTAT/F2/TFFC(June 2016)7

Task Force on the future EU censuses of population and housing

Luxembourg, 21-22 June 2016

Results of the questionnaire on the post-2021 census sent to members of the

Census Working Group

Item 7 of the Draft Agenda

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1. Introduction

This document presents a summary of the results of a questionnaire sent to the Census

Working Group to gather information and opinions on certain points related to the options for

the post-2021 data collection.

The Task Force is preparing a report for the October 2016 meeting of the Directors of Social

Statistics (DSS) outlining a series of options for the types of census-type data to be collected

after 2021, including the various issues and questions to be considered. The advice and

guidance of the DSS will be requested on how to proceed with this work and which options

should be selected for further research and development. A preliminary draft of the DSS

paper will be discussed under item 9 of the Task Force agenda.

2. Background

At the March 2016 meeting, the Task Force discussed a list of questions that was designed to

collect views on the post-2021 data collection. Although the main questions associated with

the post-2021 data collection had been discussed before with the Task Force, the aim was to

develop a more concrete list of options and issues to consider, together with initial comments

and options of the Task Force members. This information will be used when completing the

report to the DSS on the post-2021 data collection.

Following initial discussions in the Task Force meeting, the questionnaire was sent to all

members of the Census Working Group who were invited to consider these questions in more

detail and to provide written answers. A summary analysis of the 26 responses received from

Member States is presented in Annex. Further review of the replies received, as well as

further discussions with NSIs, will be necessary to understand more fully what types of data

collection could feasibly be introduced; for example, to see whether a particular problem is

related to legal or data availability issues, and whether it is likely that a problem could be

overcome, possibly with technical or financial assistance, in the years before the data

collection comes in to operation. The original questionnaire replies received from NSIs are

available on CIRCABC at:

https://circabc.europa.eu/w/browse/1a7789bb-99fd-488c-aca8-58a4472b3183

Although Member States differ greatly in terms of the data sources and methods currently

used or planned for the future to collect these data, certain common trends have been reported

by many NSIs. These trends - such as an almost universal move towards the greater use of

administrative data and the possible collection of at least some data more frequently than in a

decennial census – are seen from the received answers. However, a clear problem is that it is

difficult for NSIs to respond with certainty or detail about exactly which data are likely to be

accessible from administrative sources in 8-10 years' time.

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ANNEX

1/ What is your overall view of how the post-2021 census should look?

All MSs agreed that having decennial census only is no longer sufficient as regards the

timeliness of the data and the user needs. The general view is that post-2021 census should be

a combination between a set of annual, useful, feasible to provide data and a set of more

detailed data that could be disseminated every five years. Many have seen this as an

opportunity to further harmonise European and national statistics by having one coherent set

of demographic data instead of two (census and demography)

The majority proposed that the annual data should contain only a limited number of topics at

detailed geographical level (LAU 2) while a mid-decennial census could include more topics

(with more detail) at detailed geographical level (LAU2).

However, it was stressed that it would be necessary to make a proposal that is feasible for

both register-based countries and countries with a traditional census and to avoid the

situations where some countries would be forced to adopt solutions (i.e. more surveys) that

increase costs and burden.

2/ What data source(s) would you plan to use? What technical/administrative/legal

developments are necessary?

Although a majority of MSs can be seen as moving towards a register based census,

supplemented in many countries by specific collections (e.g. surveys) for topics not available

from administrative data, they are currently at the different stages in this process – while

some have completed this change, others still need to create different (statistical) registers

that still do not exist in their respective countries.

While the modification to European statistical law gives MSs full access to national

administrative data, some national legal developments and practical arrangements are still

needed in most of the countries: some MSs also stressed the issue of legal constraints around

access to current and new administrative data sources. Many countries indicated a parallel

need for accompanying methodological developments.

3/ Is a single reference date feasible?

Member States agreed that, in order to respect the characteristic of simultaneity, there should

be a single reference date for all the variables. However, even if for most topics a single

reference date is possible, there are some specific topics which would require more

flexibility. All reference dates should take into account the data sources currently used or

planned to be used for data compilation. Nevertheless, in order to ensure the possibility for

comparisons the reference date for a given variable should be common for all countries.

Some countries already expressed their preference for a specific reference date while others

have no preference and suggest that issues such as seasonal variations of certain variables

(employment, industry or place of work for example) should be solved with statistical

adjustments.

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4/ Can all / some data be supplied within 12 months of the reference date?

For a majority of MSs (18 out of 26) it would be feasible to supply the data within 12 months

of the reference date if the data can readily be extracted from registers and concern only the

basic demographic topics – SEX - AGE- POB - COC. For topics where the data were not

available from registers, or where a more complex statistical processing was required, a 12

month timetable was seen as – currently - impossible for many countries.

For other MSs (8 out of 26), the timing for the supply of annual data is not currently known

as it will depend on the outcomes of research and other development activities over the next

few years

5/ Can the existing level of detail (breakdowns) be maintained? How much would

breakdowns need to be reduced?

While some MSs have no problems in retaining the existing level of detail, for others the

level of detail for annual data cannot be maintained either for technical or confidentiality

reasons. Those countries that foresee few or no problems in maintaining the existing level of

detail, appear to be those that have the most developed systems for using administrative

registers.

Countries that have issues with maintaining the existing breakdowns suggest that the annual

data should cover only a restricted number of basic topics with a limited number of

breakdowns, e.g. by sex and broad age groups.

6/ What types of cross-tabulations can be maintained?

For some MSs (7 out of 26), all current cross-tabulations could be maintained while for

others the possible types of cross-tabulations should be limited to a maximum of 4

dimensions (including all or some of the three most frequent dimensions: AGE, SEX and

GEO).

7/ Are there variables that are specifically difficult to produce annually?

In general, all variables that are not available or only partially available in administrative

sources would be almost impossible to produce. Almost all MSs agree that variables dealing

with employment and occupation (especially if the ILO concept is used), as well as all

housing variables would be impossible to produce on an annual basis.

For those MSs having problems with cross-tabulations, only very few and simple cross-

tabulations are possible for annual data provision.

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8/ To what extent can the essential feature of small area data still be met? Would a very

limited set of 1 km² grid data be possible?

To meet user needs it is considered important that the annual data should comply with the

essential census characteristic that small area data should be available. Most of the countries

referred to the current situation, acknowledging the difficulty of predicting the situation in

about 10 years' time. Today, for a majority of MSs, even basic demographic data (sex and

age) might not be available annually in the absence of a coherent system of administrative

data sources.

NSIs noted that they did not yet have experience of even decennial grid data in a European

census context. For some, budget cuts may affect regional statistics since all non-mandatory

statistics are likely to be drastically reduced in the coming years and this would have great

implications for regional data. Due to this, Eurostat notes an increasing importance of having

a Temporary Statistical Action regulation on 1km2 grid data under the Regulation on

European Statistics.

As in previous parts of the questionnaire, MSs with more developed register systems have no

significant problems in producing a limited set of 1 km² grid data. However, even these

countries state that they already produce a set of grid data as agreed in the INSPIRE directive

but that the new grid data (as well as any other hypercubes or any type of data outputs) needs

additional work that is not currently planned for in their budgets.

9/ Would the supply of microdata to Eurostat be feasible / acceptable? – based on the

LFS approach

A great majority of MSs (21 out of 26) expressed that this option would not be possible.

Although this approach was used for the LFS, it would not be appropriate for the census - the

LFS is sample survey while census is a full observation.

There are legal restrictions in the majority of MSs where the national legislation prohibits the

dissemination of census microdata.

Some of the MSs feel that some kind of specific European regulation/agreement should be

issued for this purpose.

10/ Is the role of annual data to:

a) act as a more frequent supplement to the decennial census (annual updates)?

b) over time, to completely replace the decennial census (content and detail of the

annual data increases gradually so that there is no longer a significant need for the

decennial data collection)?

A general view was that full replacement of the decennial census by annual data does not

seem achievable. An alternative option was favoured whereby annual data were limited to the

most useful and feasible topics, with detailed data (that is, more or less what is planned for

the 2021 census) produced every five years.

29

Annual data should be considered as a way to complement (fill gaps) decennial/5-yearly

census data and to fill in the gaps in between inter-censual periods.

11/ When should this start?

Almost all MSs agree that the first year of reference for the new census could be 2024 with

dissemination in 2025.

However, there are those MSs that are able to produce annual “census data” from 2021

onwards delivering the data already in 2022/3. Several MSs said that new data production to

meet European requirements would need some additional resources and financing by Eurostat

as they are not part of the NSIs' budgeted production scheme.