Post on 23-Dec-2015
A Proposal for A Proposal for Creation of a Reusable Creation of a Reusable Launch Vehicle Fleet Launch Vehicle Fleet
for Lockheed Martinfor Lockheed Martin
Corwin OlsonCorwin OlsonTurner WrightTurner WrightTim HonkerTim HonkerClint HenryClint Henry
ASE 333TASE 333TApril 29April 29thth, 2004, 2004
Reusable Launch Vehicles
The ProblemThe Problem
• Large demand among public for “Space Tourism”• No affordable access to space
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Corwin Olson
The Problem: Vast unrealized profits
Reusable Launch Vehicles
DemandDemand
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Corwin Olson
Wish to travel to space by age group (Japan) Wish to travel to space by age group (U.S.)Collins
Collins (1995) Study- 3030 people: 70% willing to spend several months’ salary
• ~$1 trillion/year scale of activity (2003 estimate)
Ticket Price (U.S. Ticket Price (U.S. $)$)
DemandDemand
LowLow MediuMediumm
HighHigh
$10,000$10,000 3,000,003,000,0000
150,00150,0000
6,0006,000
$100,000$100,000 20,00020,000 1,0001,000 6060
$1,000,000$1,000,000 200200 7070 2020
Collins
Commercial Space Transportation Study (1994)
Table 1: Worldwide Annual Passenger Demand for Space Tourism
• “Bottoms Up” Method based on income, age, and ticket price• $60 million vs. $20 million
CSTS Alliance
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Lack of AccessLack of Access
• Affordability Ex. Space Shuttle- $10,000/lb into orbit All three space tourists paid $20 million
• Safety Ex. Challenger, Columbia
• No vehicles designed for tourists, general public• Governmental red tape
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Corwin Olson
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Why solve it?Why solve it?
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Corwin Olson
• Profit
• Established infrastructure
• Power Transfer
• Prestige
Reusable Launch Vehicles
The SolutionThe Solution
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Turner Wright
ProblemProblem Unaffordable access to spaceUnaffordable access to space Desire for Space Tourism among Desire for Space Tourism among
eliteelite
SOLUTIONSOLUTION A fleet of reusable launch vehicles A fleet of reusable launch vehicles
(RLV’s)(RLV’s)
Reusable Launch Vehicles
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Turner Wright
http://www.xprize.com/
Reusable Launch Vehicles
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Turner Wright
http://www.xprize.com/
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Level of ReusabilityLevel of Reusability
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Turner Wright
FULLY reusableFULLY reusable Capable of taking off the surface of the earthCapable of taking off the surface of the earth Achieving sub-orbital flightAchieving sub-orbital flight Return to Earth with ALL COMPONENTS Return to Earth with ALL COMPONENTS
present at launchpresent at launch Takes everything it needs with it and backTakes everything it needs with it and back
Space Shuttle is partially reusableSpace Shuttle is partially reusable External HExternal H22, O, O22 liquid fuel tank isn’t reused liquid fuel tank isn’t reused
Reusable Launch Vehicles
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Turner Wright
http://www.psy.fsu.edu/~thompson/shuttle/shuttle-b1b.jpg
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Reusable Launch VehiclesReusable Launch Vehicles
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Turner Wright
Launch OptionsLaunch Options Vertical- Saturn V, STS, ApolloVertical- Saturn V, STS, Apollo Horizontal- X Prize contendersHorizontal- X Prize contenders
Landing OptionsLanding Options Horizontal landing (STS)Horizontal landing (STS) Vertical landing (splashdown or over land)Vertical landing (splashdown or over land)
For RLV commercial fleetFor RLV commercial fleet Horizontal takeoff, landingHorizontal takeoff, landing Tailored to Tailored to peoplepeople
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Why a Fleet of RLV’s?Why a Fleet of RLV’s?
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Turner Wright
Lowers the costLowers the cost Safer, more reliableSafer, more reliable
Dependent on consumer reliabilityDependent on consumer reliability Not federal fundsNot federal funds Are enough people in the market?Are enough people in the market?
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Lowering CostLowering Cost
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Turner Wright
X-prizeX-prize $2-$20 million$2-$20 million STS D&DSTS D&D $10 billion$10 billion STS launchSTS launch $245 million/year$245 million/year STS infrastructureSTS infrastructure $2.8 billion/year$2.8 billion/year RLV fleet costRLV fleet cost $250 million-$2 billion$250 million-$2 billion
Design and DevelopmentDesign and Development Launches- fuel costLaunches- fuel cost Mission Operations- variableMission Operations- variable Infrastructure- NOT included in estimateInfrastructure- NOT included in estimate
Landing strips, terminals, administrationLanding strips, terminals, administration
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Why so much less?Why so much less?
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Turner Wright
Suborbital flight- MUCH cheaper to travelSuborbital flight- MUCH cheaper to travel Low orbit for tourists, not actual missionsLow orbit for tourists, not actual missions Less KE requiredLess KE required
InfrastructureInfrastructure Cement landing strips instead of launch padCement landing strips instead of launch pad Eventually take over airlines? Eventually take over airlines?
DesignDesign Fuel efficient, cost efficientFuel efficient, cost efficient Different parameters than shuttleDifferent parameters than shuttle
Reusable Launch Vehicles
How It Will Solve ProblemHow It Will Solve Problem
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Turner Wright
Compare prices for transportationCompare prices for transportation Greyhound BusGreyhound Bus $50$50 Commercial AirlinerCommercial Airliner $600$600 ConcordeConcorde $10,000$10,000 Space AdventuresSpace Adventures $20,000,000$20,000,000 RLV fleetRLV fleet $10,000-$50,000$10,000-$50,000
Afford the ConcordeAfford the Concorde ride the RLV ride the RLV Possible for elite classPossible for elite class
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Alternative SolutionsAlternative Solutions
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Turner Wright
Vertical LaunchVertical Launch Not as convenient as airlinesNot as convenient as airlines Need to walk right up to doorNeed to walk right up to door
Vertical landing (i.e. splashdown)Vertical landing (i.e. splashdown) Costumers waiting in the oceanCostumers waiting in the ocean Picked up by aircraft carrierPicked up by aircraft carrier Not exactly best PRNot exactly best PR
Reusable Launch Vehicles
The Solution The Solution ImplementationImplementation
Creation of a Reusable Launch Vehicle though 4 stages
1.Increase Research & Development budget
2.Design Vehicle3.Prototyping and Testing4.Mass Production, Infrastructure
supportThe Problem The Solution
Solution Implementation
Conclusion
Tim Honker
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Increase R & DIncrease R & D
Estimated Cost of 1 prototype to LH: $200 million over
5 years
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Tim Honker
2002 Yr. Lockheed Martin R&D budget: $860 million
Estimated Cost to LH for mature $2 billionspaceplane in 15 years
Estimated Cost to taxpayers for mature >$100 billion overspaceplane on current schedule 40 years
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Design of SpaceplaneDesign of Spaceplane
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Tim Honker
David AshfordSpaceplane Development Strategy
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Prototyping & TestingPrototyping & Testing
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Tim Honker
Keys to expedited and economical production
•Maximizing use of proven technology
•Test new components individually
•Using models for overall structure – combine new and old
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Mass Production & Mass Production & InfrastructureInfrastructure
The Problem The SolutionSolution
ImplementationConclusion
Tim Honker
Minimizing Risk, Maximizing profit
•Create foundation in other stable industries
•Keep other industries “invested”
•Build public demand before final release
Spread financial risk and lure of profit
Reusable Launch Vehicles
Third Party InvolvementThird Party Involvement
Private Sector•Other companies•X-Prize competition•Space Tourists
Government•NASA•Military
Clinton Henry
The Problem The Solution Solution Implementation Conclusion
Reusable Launch Vehicles
EthicsEthics
Safety•Is the risk of failure worth sending people into space?
Service•Engineers pledge to “give the utmost of performance”
Profit•Driving byproduct of research and development•Maintaining prestige
Clinton Henry
The Problem The Solution Solution Implementation Conclusion
Reusable Launch Vehicles
RecommendationsRecommendations
• Public relations
• Recognize and learn from predecessors1.Space Shuttle2.X-333.X-Prize
Clinton Henry
The Problem The Solution Solution Implementation Conclusion
Reusable Launch Vehicles
ConclusionsConclusions
•Statement and description of the problem
•The solution to the problem
•Implementation of the solution
•Other considerations
Clinton Henry
The Problem The Solution Solution Implementation Conclusion
Reusable Launch Vehicles
ReferencesReferences
Studt, T., Duga, J., “Smaller Increase Forecast for US Research Spending,” January 2002, http://www.rdmag.com/features/0201fore23.asp, (11 Apr. 2004).
Ashford, David, “Spaceflight Revolution,” Imperial College Press, London, 2002.
Collins, P., “Space Tourism Market Demand and the Transportation Infrastructure,” July 2003, http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/space_tourism_market_ demand_and_the_transportation_infrastructure.shtml, (27 Apr. 2004).
Crouch, G., “Researching the Space Tourism Market”, June 2001, http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/researching_the_space_tourism_mark
et.shtml, (27 Apr. 2004).
Wertz, James R. and Larson, Wiley J. “Reducing Space Mission Cost.” Microcosm Press, Torrance, CA: 1996.