Post on 11-Jan-2016
A Project Management System Based on SRI Early Alert System (SEAS)
A Project Management System Based on SRI Early Alert System (SEAS)
Tom BoyceDirector of Knowledge Development
Artificial Intelligence CenterSRI International
Menlo Park, Californiaboyce@sri.ai.com
NSP SeminarApril 26, 2001
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Today and Tomorrow
Today: John Chambers, CEO, Cisco Systems Inc. “I can now close my books in 24
hours. I’ve known for a month what my earning are for this weekend. I know my expenses, my profitability, my gross margins, my components. What people haven’t got yet is that this will be the biggest payback application of the Internet.”
“Because once I have my data in that format, every one of my employees can make decisions that might have had to come all the way to the president. And after the quarterly close, an individual product-line manager can see exactly what the gross margins are on his or her products.”
Source: “The 21st Century Corporation, the Creative Economy”, Business Week, 21-28 August 2000
Tomorrow: The opinions on which
decisions were based and the evidence that supported those opinions will be as readily available as the data summarizing the resulting financial performance.
It will be possible to review how opportunities were missed, how threats were averted, how projections were made, how assessments of progress were made, and if best practice was/is being followed.
It will be possible to record and communicate how decisions are made that determine the future success of a project or a company.
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What’s New?
Question: What new technology can provide a better solution and why is that important??
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DARPA’s Project Genoais sponsoring the development of SEAS
SEAS: SRI Early Alert System SEAS initial development sponsored by
Statoil Early warning tool for project management Prototype application conceived and
developed (1989-1990) Development under Project Genoa
Being generalized and applied to crisis warning for national security
Multi-year effort (began late 1997) SEAS converted to a web-based client-
server architecture incorporating user driven navigation and visualization
Version 4.1.5 on line Field deployment summer of 2001
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Key SEAS Differentiators
SEAS Structured Argumentation (opinion)
Externalization and transparency of thinking and ideas
Improves rigor of analysis Speeds analysis Rapid comprehension and comparison
Corporate Memory (best practice) Repository of opinions and evolution of thinking,
not just access to facts Premise decisions are grounded on opinions
Collaborative Environment (communication) Asynchronous co-authoring and critical review Use of best practice as established by others Simultaneous access, across all browser clients,
with little or no systems integration
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Structured Argumentation
Structured arguments & templates record analytic products and methods
Templates structure and guide analytic thinking encouraging higher fidelity reasoning
Cascaded templates support deeper reasoning where the analyst determines that it is desirable
Structured arguments are easily communicated, explained, and compared
Structured arguments record lines of reasoning allowing users to drill down to supporting documentary evidence, its relevance, the answers it induces, and the rationale for those answers
Graphical depictions of structured arguments speed comprehension and comparison
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Corporate Memory
A knowledge base of analytic products (arguments), analytic methods (templates), indexed by the situations to which they applied
Arguments are the opinions that drove decisions
Templates capture best practice Expanded by analysts as a by-
product during productive use of the tool rather than being required before the tool becomes useful
Queries against corporate memory retrieve arguments/templates that were applied to similar situations
Summaries of retrieved arguments/templates allow one to quickly understand the thinking of the past and how it might apply to the present
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Collaboration
Web server architecture Simultaneous access Across all browser clients Little or no systems integration
Published arguments/templates are guaranteed to be both stable and persistent The audience has simultaneous
read access The co-authors have
simultaneous write access, while unpublished, & read access thereafter
Memos attached to arguments/templates provide a means for users to communicate asynchronously critiques, instructions, to-do, ...
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SEAS Version 4.1.5 is Currently Operational and Accessible via the Internet
Collaborating with Current Team
Collaborating with Historical Team WWW
WWW Browser
DecisionMaking
Corp.Memory
CurrentArguments/Templates
HistoricalArguments/Templates SEAS Server
WWW Browser WWW BrowserWWW Browser
Historical Trend
Prediction
SEAS Applied toProject Management:
Illustrative Cases
SEAS Applied toProject Management:
Illustrative Cases
Case 1: R&D ProjectsCase 2: Capital Projects
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“Driver checklists” for assessing project outlook are developed from past experience of what went well and what went wrong.
PROJECT DANGERDANGER
OKOKATTENTIONATTENTION DANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERDANGER
Key Outlook Areas
TechnicalApproach
Staff
ValueCreation
Contractors
Schedule
Cost
ATTENTIONATTENTION
Managing Projects by “Looking Forward through the Windshield”
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Case 1:R&D Project Portfolios are Inherently Risky; Some Projects will Fail
Terminate or Redirect
EffectiveProject
Management
Contact withCustomer& Market
CommercialSuccess
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Case 1: Checklists for R&D Project Assessment
Dimension 1: Project Management
SCHEDULE OUTLOOK? 1.1.1 COMPLETED ON SCHEDULE? 1.1.2 REMAINING ON SCHEDULE? 1.1.3 SUPPORTING EFFORTS?
BUDGET OUTLOOK? 1.2.1 COMPLETED ON BUDGET? 1.2.2 REMAINING ON BUDGET? 1.2.3 CONTINGENCIES?
TECHNICAL APPROACH OUTLOOK? 1.3.1 TECHNICAL INNOVATION? 1.3.2 PROTOTYPE OPERATIONAL? 1.3.3 TECHNICAL PROBLEMS?
RESOURCES OUTLOOK? 1.4.1 STAFF? 1.4.2 EQUIPMENT AND SERVICES? 1.4.3 FUNDS?
Dimension 2: Project Results
END USE COST OUTLOOK? 2.1.1 COST REQUIREMENTS? 2.1.2 COSTS WITHIN PLAN? 2.1.3 COSTS COMPETITIVE?
END USE PERFORMANCE OUTLOOK? 2.2.1 PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS? 2.2.2 PERFORMANCE WITHIN PLAN? 2.2.3 PERFORMANCE COMPETITIVE?
END USE MARKET OUTLOOK? 2.3.1 USED AS PLANNED? 2.3.2 BENEFITS UNCHANGED? 2.3.3 RETURN ON INVESTMENT?
CONTACT WITH CUSTOMER? 2.4.1 CONTACT WITH MARKETING? 2.4.2 CONTACT WITH OPERATIONS? 2.4.3 RELATIONSHIP WITH OPERATIONS?
Based on 100’s of past projects
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Case 1: R&D Project ManagementChecklist Converted to SEAS Template
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Case 1: Project Results Checklist Converted to a SEAS Template
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Case 1: R&D ProjectIllustrative Situation
Situation: R&D project to develop to commercial product to be produced by Electronic Materials Division. Project is nearing completion.
Month 10 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses outlook for project success based on startup of project. Answers to most questions indicate “green” (OK) condition: “on track” Answers to 1.1.2 REMAINING ON SCHEDULE question and 1.2.1 COMPLETED ON
BUDGET question indicate “yellow” (caution) condition: “project leader will handle” Month 11 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses out look for project success based on 2nd
month of project. Answer to 1.2.1 COMPLETED ON BUDGET question remains “yellow”: project leader
still working to resolve the situation. Answer to 1.1.2 REMAINING ON SCHEDULE question goes from yellow to “red” (early
alert) condition: “project leader requests help to resolve the situation.” Month 12 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses outlook for project success based on 3rd
month of project. Answer to 1.1.2 REMAINING ON SCHEDULE question goes from from “red” to “green”:
“project leader with the help of others has resolved the situation.” Answer to 2.2.3 PERFORMANCE COMPETITIVE question goes from “green” to
“yellow”: “project leader has a new problem that he will handle.”
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Case 1: R&D CaseIllustrative SEAS Monthly Reports
Month 10 ReportStarburst
Summary Table Summary Table Summary Table
Month 12 ReportStarburst
Month11 ReportStarburst
InternalProject
ManagementEffectiveness
Outlook
End User Results
SatisfactionOutlook
Time Remaining Time Remaining Time Remaining
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Case 1: R&D Project IllustrativeSituation
Drilldown Example for Month 11
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Case 2: Capital Projects Encounter Risks During Every Phase
FeasibilityStudy
ProjectDefinition
BasicEngin-eering
Detail.Engin &Procure.
Fabricat.& Erect.
Comm-ission
TechSupport
OwnerRequirements
OwnerSatisfaction
Home OfficeEngineering
Outlook
SiteConstruction
Outlook
Project OutlookChecklists
During Phases 4 & 5
Use history from past projects (what went right and what went wrong?)
to develop forward looking checklists for the project team
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SEAS Template for Capital Project Assessment
Phase 4: Engineering Outlook?
SCHEDULE OUTLOOK? 1.1.1 MILESTONES ON SCHEDULE? 1.1.2 PROCUREMENT LEAD TIME? 1.1.3 CRITICAL PATH RELATIONSHIPS?
BUDGET OUTLOOK? 1.2.1 LABOR RATES & AMOUNTS? 1.2.2 MATERIALS & SERVICES? 1.2.3 ESCALATION & INFLATION?
PERMITS AND CONTRACTS OUTLOOK? 1.3.1 PERMIT TIMING? 1.3.2 CONTRACTOR SCOPE & COST? 1.3.3 CHANGE ORDERS?
EXTERNAL RELATIONS OUTLOOK? 1.4.1 REGULATORY? 1.4.2 COMMUNITY? 1.4.3 LABOR UNIONS?
Phase 5: Site Construction Outlook?
SPECIFICATIONS COMPLETENESS OUTLOOK? 2.1.1 ENGINEERING SPECIFICATIONS? 2.1.2 PERFORMANCE SPECIFICATIONS? 2.1.3 QUALITY ASSURANCE & INSPECTION?
FIELD RESOURCE READINESS OUTLOOK? 2.2.1 LABOR WORK RULES & STRIKES? 2.2.2 EQUIPMENT & CONSUMABLE DELIVERY? 2.2.3 FABRICATION OF CONSTRUCTION AIDS?
FIELD ENGINEERING OUTLOOK? 2.3.1 SHOP DRAWING ERRORS? 2.3.2 PROCEDURE CERTIFICATIONS? 2.3.3 CHANGE ORDERS?
HEALTH, SAFETY & ENVIRON OUTLOOK? 2.4.1 WORKPLACE HEALTH & SAFETY? 2.4.2 H,S&E AT COMMISSIONING?? 2.4.3 H,S&E POST COMMISIONING?
Checklists based on 100’s of past projects
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Case 2: Capital ProjectIllustrative Situation
Situation: Capital project to develop petrochemical processing plant near a refinery. Project is just starting.
Month 1 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses outlook for project success based on startup of project. Answers to most questions indicate “green” (OK) condition: “on track” Answers to 1.4.1 REGULATORY RELATIONS question and 2.4.2 PROCEDURES
CERTIFICATION question indicate “yellow” (caution) condition: “project leader will handle”
Month 2 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses out look for project success based on 2nd month of project. Answer to 1.4.1 REGULATORY RELATIONS question goes from “yellow” to”green”:
project leader has resolved the situation. Answer to 2.4.2 PROCEDURES CERTIFICATION question goes from yellow to “red” (early
alert) condition: “project leader requests help to resolve the situation.” Month 3 SEAS Report: Project leader assesses outlook for project success based on 3rd
month of project. Answer to 2.4.2 PROCEDURES CERTIFICATION question goes from from “red” to
“green”: “project leader with the help of others has resolved the situation.” Answer to 1.1.2 PERFORMANCE SPECIFICATIONS question goes from “green” to
“yellow”: “project leader has a new problem that he will handle.”
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Case 2: Capital Projects Illustrative SEAS Monthly Reports
Month 1 ReportStarburst
Summary Table Summary Table Summary Table
Month 3 ReportStarburst
Month 2 ReportStarburst
Home OfficeEngineering
SiteConstruction
Home OfficeOutlook?
Home OfficeOutlook?
Home OfficeOutlook?
SiteOutlook?
SiteOutlook?
SiteOutlook?
Certification CertificationCertification
PerformanceSpecificationsRegulatoryRegulatory
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Case 2: Capital ProjectIllustrative Situation Drilldown for Month 1
Argument: Capital Project Home OfficeIllustrative Case: Month 1
REGULATORY: Are regulatory relations satisfactory?
None of the regulatory relations are according to plan Few of the regulatory relations are according to planMost of the regulatory relations are according to planAlmost all of the regulatory relations are according to planAll of the regulatory relations are according to plan
A new director of the state energy regulatory agency has been appointed; his energy conservation ideas, which may apply to our project, are stringent.
Conclusions Conclusions
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SEAS Provides Structured Arguments
Questionwith
Amplification
Multiple-choice
Answers
Exhibit
Documentary Evidence
Rationale
Multiple-choice question answered directly
by the user Rationale
Reason the user answered as they did
Documentary Evidence Documents whose
relevance to the question has been recorded
Exhibits Documents that
are potentially relevant to answering the question
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oil
price
tanker
producers
Iran
U.S.
OPEC
Multidimensional argument summary
New information available
Unidimensional argument
Cascaded arguments
Supporting documents
Supporting critical path
analysis
Supporting query structure
SEAS Provides a Corporate Memory
Discovery tools are used to create cascaded arguments, with the analyst choosing where more in-depth reasoning is warranted
Cascaded arguments communicate complex analytic reasoning - not just data
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SEAS Provides a Collaborative Environment
Custom argument summaries allow users to quickly determine What the argument
is about What drives the
conclusion
Criteria
Summary
Drivers
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Creating a transparent and learning project team environment
Anticipating and solving problems to keep projects on the road to success
PROJECT
OKOK
Solution: By Project Team
- Contingency Plan- Re-Planning Not Required
Solution: With Senior Executive
- Possible Re-Planning- Approved by Executives
DANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERDANGERATTENTIONATTENTIONATTENTIONATTENTION
SEAS Represents the State of the Art in Web-Based Project Management
A Project Management System Based on SRI Early Alert System (SEAS)
A Project Management System Based on SRI Early Alert System (SEAS)
Tom BoyceDirector of Knowledge Development
Artificial Intelligence CenterSRI International
Menlo Park, Californiaboyce@sri.ai.com
NSP SeminarApril 26, 2001