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Princeton Plasma Physics LaboratoryMay 16, 2012

Alexander GlaserDepartment of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineeringand Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International AffairsPrinceton University

A New Approach toNuclear Warhead Verification Using a Zero-Knowledge Protocol

A. Glaser, Warhead Verification, May 2012

A New Era of Nuclear Disarmament?

While the new START treaty is an important step forward, it is just one step on

a longer journey. As I said last year in Prague, this treaty will set the stage for

further cuts. And going forward, we hope to pursue discussions with Russia on

reducing both our strategic and tactical weapons, including non-deployed

weapons.”U.S. President Obama, upon signing the New START Treaty, April 2010

We endorse setting the goal of a world free of nuclear weapons and working

energetically on the actions required to achieve that goal.”

A World Free of Nuclear Weapons George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger, and Sam Nunn

The Wall Street Journal, January 4, 2007

U.S. Nuclear Weapons Stockpile, 1945–2009

Increasing Transparency in the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Stockpile, Fact Sheet, U.S. Department of Defense, Washington, DC, 3 May 2010

5,113 warheads in stockpile, as of September 2009(1,665 operationally deployed strategic warheads, as of September 2011)

Making and Dismantling Nuclear Weapons

Making Nuclear Weapons

DeploymentSource material

(Uranium)Production of

weapon componentsWarhead / Weapon

assembly

Uranium enrichment

Plutonium production

1 3 4 5

Dismantling Nuclear Weapons

Source material(Uranium)

Plutonium production oruranium enrichment

Production ofweapon components

Warhead / Weaponassembly

Deployment

Warhead / Weapondisassembly

Recovery ofweapon components

Recovery offissile material

Elimination/dispositionof fissile material

Key Stages for a Verification Approach

Deployment

(going beyond verifying limits on deployed nuclear weapons)

Key Stages for a Verification Approach

Deployment

(going beyond verifying limits on deployed nuclear weapons)

Components of a U.S.B-61 Thermonuclear Weapon

Source: U.S. Department of Energy

How Can the Inspecting Party Be Assured Thata Genuine Warhead is Being Presented?

Present objects that are similar to genuine warheadsexcept that some fissile material has been substituted (e.g. with natural uranium)

Objective: Withhold fissile material

Hypothetical scenarios that a country “hedging its bets” might consider

Present objects that might or might not resemble real warheads(but presumably containing some fissile material)

Objective: Withhold real warheads

Present complete but obsolete warheads that may (or may not) contain less fissile materialObjective: Withhold fissile material or specific (more advanced) warheads

Requirements for an Inspection System

CertificationAssuring the host that the system does not divulge information

that would be considered proliferation-sensitive or be otherwise classified

AuthenticationAssuring the inspecting party that the instrument works as designed and

that the data collected and displayed during the inspection are genuine measurements

Completeness and Soundness of ApproachIf a valid item is presented, then the item is accepted with high probability

If an invalid item is presented, then the item is rejected with high probability(in spite of elaborate deception efforts that the host might undertake)

Previous Verification Efforts

Nuclear Warheads Have Unique Signatures

(but most of them are sensitive and cannot be revealed)

Steve Fetter, Thomas B. Cochran, Lee Grodzins, Harvey L. Lynch and Martin S. Zucker“Measurements of Gamma Rays from a Soviet Cruise Missile,“ Science, Vol. 248, 18 May 1990, pp. 828–834

Gamma radiation spectrum from a Soviet warhead measured in 1989

“Attribute Approach”

1996–2002 Trilateral Initiative developed approach to determine that a container holds more than a threshold amount of weapon-grade plutonium.

Results communicated by red or green lights through information barrier

plutonium ?weapon-grade ?more than x kg ?

“Attribute Verification System” (AVNG)incl. Neutron and Gamma Detector

Container withclassified plutonium

component

Confirming Selected Characteristics of an Object in Classified Form

BUT: Attributes are not defining enough for warhead differentiation and are likely to be at a significant risk of spoofing

“Template Approach”

Measurements designed to generate “unique fingerprints” of the interrogated objects

Types of measurements are a priori unspecified(typically neutron or gamma-spectroscopy)

Verifying that a warhead offered for inspectionis substantially identical to a reference warhead of the same type

that has been previously confirmed to be authentic

Standard assumption: use of information barriers is critical and inevitable

Use of information barriers is generally problematic

Instruments proposed so far are complex and their certification/authentication difficult

(because sensitive data is still detected/recorded and could be transmitted through backdoor)

Princeton MAE/PPPL Verification Project

• Use 14.1-MeV neutron source (1.5 108 n/s) available at PPPL

• Use test item in which nuclear materials are replacedwith “benign” alternatives

• Avoid or minimize role/use of information barriers

• Validate conceptual approach with MCNP simulations

TEMPLATE APPROACH

in collaboration with Rob Goldston and Charles Gentile, PPPLand Boaz Barak, Microsoft Research New England

Project currently funded by Global Zero (www.globalzero.org)and supported by PPPL Proposal Development Funds

What We Don’t Use

Mockup of a MK-12 Reentry Vehicle with a W62 warhead(Note: the final W62 was dismantled in August 2010, www.energy.gov/articles/dismantling-history-final-w62-warhead)

(and Don’t Need for Our Proof-of-concept)

Simple Pit Configuration

Plutonium/Lead shell, 4.75 kg, OD = 10.8 cmSteel casing, OD = 12.4 cm

Celotex insulation and shock protectionin standard 30-Gal steel drum

(“Test Item” in Standard Pit-Storage Container)

Neutron Source, Test Item, and Detector Bank

Polyethylene

Top view

270-degree (cylindrical) detector bank

30-Gal drum

100 cm 50 cm

Neutronsource

Radiograph of Test Item in Container

Simulated data, all neutron energies, MCNP5 simulations, 10 billion source neutrons

Simulated data, 14 MeV neutrons, MCNP5 simulations, 10 billion source neutrons

How Do We Prevent Sensitive Information from Being Detected?

Zero-Knowledge Protocols

Zero-Knowledge Proofs: Peggy (P) proves to Victor (V) that she knowsa secret without giving anything about the secret itself away

Secret Door

Peggy walks into caveto secret door, choosingbetweenPath A or B

Victor walks into caveand asks Peggy to comeback viaPath A or B

Secret Door

Zero-knowledge cave:Peggy claims to knowhow to opena secret door

Another Example: “Marbles in a Cup”

Alice has two small cups each containing the same number of marbles. She wants to prove to Bob that both cups contain the same number of marbles without revealing to him what this number is.

Possible Hardware Implementations of aZero-Knowledge Protocol for Warhead Verification

Use pair of (passive) detectors pre-initialized with random offset(values unknown to inspecting party, but no incentive for host to cheat)

and compare absolute values only after measurements

Use neutron detector that does not (and cannot) display total count ratesbut only the remainder of a MOD[m,n] operation

n has to be small compared to the detector counts m(otherwise design information would be preserved in the measurement)

(TWO POTENTIAL OPTIONS)

MOD[m,n] Gate

Implementing a Simple MOD[m,n] Gate

“Dial of a Clock”

137,531 MOD[m,8]

Statistical noise (≈√N)Design info / Drastic changes

Select 1, 2, or 3 (middle) bits to detect only 2, 4, or 8 different values

Compare “distance” between measured values(e.g. for MOD[m,8], distance between 0 and 7 is 1)

Implementing a Simple MOD[m,n] Gate

N = 137,531N = 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1

Selected Bits of a Binary Number

Results of Monte Carlo Neutron Transport Simulations

Consider detection of directly transmitted and scattered neutrons

TYPE 1detecting

14 MeV neutrons

TYPE 2detecting all

neutron energies

TYPE 2detecting all

neutron energies

Before the measurements are carried out,a pair of detector arrays is initialized

Pair of randomly but identically initialized“MOD[m,n] detectors”

3 bits (8 possible values) per pixel

Radiograph(never measured)

Type 1 (transmission) measurement, 22x22 pixels

During the inspection, one detector arrayis used on the template, one on the test item

Detector arraybefore measurement

After measurementon Template

After measurementon Item A

After measurementon Item B

MCNP5 simulations, 10 billion source neutrons; average detector count: about 80,000 (17 bits), selected bits: 12, 13, 14

After the measurements, each detector array still features a random bit pattern, but ...

After measurementon Template

After measurementon Item A

After measurementon Item B

“Subtracting”Item A from Template

“Subtracting”Item B from Template

Many types of modifications can be detected in transmission measurements

Match 800-gram diversion Plutonium-dioxide(same plutonium mass)

More sophisticated attacks may require (additional) measurements at large angleswhere both scattered and fission neutrons are detected

Can It Be Built?

Passive Bubble Detectors

www.bubbletech.ca

“Adding Marbles from a Cup to a Bucket”Initialize detectors with random number of bubbles before measurement

Detectors with different neutron-energy thresholds are available(no cutoff, 500 keV, 1 MeV, 10 MeV)

Next Steps / Final Thoughts

Provide proof-of-concept experimentally

Determine the impact of “room return” and systematic errors(e.g. detector drift between measurements)

Zero-knowledge protocols appear as an important new approachto nuclear warhead verification

(even if passive detector technologies prove difficult to use)

Concepts and technologies need to be developed nowin order to be available for the next round of arms-control negotiations

Princeton Plasma Physics LaboratoryMay 16, 2012

Alexander GlaserDepartment of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineeringand Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International AffairsPrinceton University

A New Approach toNuclear Warhead Verification Using a Zero-Knowledge Protocol

A New Approach to Nuclear Warhead Verification Using a ...aglaser/IT023-Glaser-2012-PPPL.pdf · a...

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