9Pump Primer

• Explain the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1974

9Campaigns and Voting Behavior

9Biblical Integration

• Candidates face a great deal of difficulties and it is vital that they seek good counsel which brings wisdom (Prov. 13:10)

• Christian responsibilities and 1 Timothy 2:1-2

Video: The Big Picture

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Edwards_Ch09_Campaigns_and_Voting_Behavior_Seg1_v2.html

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9Evaluate the fairness of our current system of presidential primaries and caucuses

Explain the key objectives of any political campaign

9.1

9.2

Learning Objectives

9Outline how the financing of federal campaigns is regulated by campaign finance laws

Determine why campaigns have an important yet limited impact on election outcomes

9.3

9.4

Learning Objectives

9Identify the factors that influence whether people vote

Assess the impact of party identification, candidate evaluations, and policy opinions on voting behavior

9.5

9.6

Learning Objectives

9Learning Objectives

Evaluate the fairness of the Electoral College system for choosing the president

Assess the advantages and disadvantages of the U.S. system of campaigns and elections

9.7

9.8

Video: The Basics

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg2_Elections_v2.html

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Nomination Game

Competing for Delegates

Convention Send-Off

9.1

Competing for Delegates

National party convention State delegates meet and vote on nominee Nomination process more democratic today

Riots at the Democratic national convention 1968

McGovern-Fraser Commission Implemented reforms in delegate selection Caused states to move to primary

elections

9.1

Riots at the 1968 Democratic national convention

9.1

Riots at the 1968 Democratic national convention led to the establishment of more open procedures for delegate selection. These reforms have made recent party conventions more representative of party membership diversity.

Video: Superdelegate

9.1

Competing for Delegates

National party conventionSuperdelegates

Awarded automatic slots as delegates • Member of Congress (or)• Member of party’s national

committee Job

• Balance the tendencies of the more partisan party electorate

• Ensure that an electable candidate is given the nomination

9.1

Competing for Delegates

Invisible primary Woo...support from elected officials Craft positive personal image Distinguish themselves from other candidates Seek media attention but avoid blunders

9.1

2012 Republican primary debate 9.1

Televised debates are a regular feature of the presidential nomination process. The Republican candidates for the 2012 nomination participated in 27 debates. Here, Texas Governor Rick Perry is shown making a point while Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum look on.

Video: How Does A Caucus Work Anyway (CBS News)

9.1

Competing for Delegates

Caucuses Meetings where citizens discuss and vote on a

nominee Iowa caucus Organized like a pyramid from local precincts to

the state’s convention

Primaries Serve as elimination contests Frontloading is the tendency of states to hold

primaries early to capitalize on media attention New Hampshire primary Proportional versus winner-take-all primaries

9.1

Competing for Delegates

Evaluating the primary and caucus system Disproportionate attention goes to early

caucuses and primaries - many states are ignored

Prominent politicians find it difficult to take time out from their duties to run

Money plays too big a role in the caucuses and primaries

Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative

System gives too much power to the media

9.1

FIGURE 9.1: A count of Clinton and Obama events during the 2008 nomination campaign

9.1

The attention that candidates pay to early primary and caucus states is far more than the number of delegates at stake would otherwise warrant.

Convention Send-Off

Winner foregone conclusion Reduced TV coverage

Party infomercial Carefully scripted

Party platform Policy goals for next four years

Party Nomination Policy goals for next four years Announcement and acceptance speeches

from both nominees

9.1

9.1 Why were party primaries introduced?

a. Previous nominating process was undemocratic

b. Candidates refused to run without a change of nominating procedure

c. Party leadership demanded it

d. All of the above

9.1

a. Previous nominating process was undemocratic

b. Candidates refused to run without a change of nominating procedure

c. Party leadership demanded it

d. All of the above

9.1 Why were party primaries introduced?

9.1

Video: The Money Trail (ABC) http://abcnews.go.com/US/video/emmy-award-winner-money-trail-2492568

9.2

Campaign Game

High-Tech Media Campaign

Organizing the Campaign

9.2

High-Tech Media Campaign Main means of reaching voters = TV

Internet increasingly important

Direct mail now digital

Digital campaigning via Twitter, Facebook Obligatory for the modern campaign

Two ways to get attentionTelevision advertising News coverage

9.2

Organizing the Campaign

Get a campaign manager Get a fund-raiser Get a campaign counsel Hire media and campaign consultants Assemble a campaign staff Plan the logistics Get a research staff and policy advisers Hire a pollster Hire a good press secretary Establish a Web site

9.2

9.2

Video: Stossel In the Classroom: Campaign Finance Reform

9.2 Which staff members does a modern candidate need to hire?

a. Press secretary

b. Pollsters

c. Campaign manager

d. All of the above

9.2

a. Press secretary

b. Pollsters

c. Campaign manager

d. All of the above

9.2 Which staff members does a modern candidate need to hire?

9.2

Money and Campaigning

Regulations on Campaign Contributions Regulations on Independent Political

Expenditures Are Campaigns Too Expensive? Does Money Buy Victory?

9.3

Regulations on Campaign Contributions

9.3

Federal Election Campaign Act (1974) Who contributed How money spent Limits on individual and interest group contributions Federal Election Commission (FEC) Public financing

Loopholes No limits on spending own money Soft money

Money raised by political parties for party building expenses at the grass roots level

Banned - McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2002

Figure 9.2: How Obama raised more campaign money by declining federal funds

9.3

Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures 527 groups

New route for soft money Independent expenditures Endorsements forbidden

Citizens United v. FEC (2010) Prior to case corporations and unions could not electioneer in the final 60

days before the election Court ruled 5 to 4 that money equals speech and corporations are people,

so restrictions on electioneering were a violation of speech rights

9.3

Citizens United 9.3

David Bossie, shown here, is president of Citizens United, a conservative nonprofit organization, which in 2008 produced Hillary: The Movie.

When the Federal Election Commission ruled that this movie was unlawful electioneering, Citizens United successfully sued, establishing the right of any group to engage in independent political expenditures.

Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures 501(c) groups

No disclose the names of donors or amount of

donations

Super PACs Named because of the immense amounts of money

they can spend provided that it’s in the form of

independent expenditures Created after the Citizens United ruling

9.3

Video: Colbert and his Colbert Super PAC.

9.3

TABLE 9.1: Biggest 10 Super PAC donations in 2012

9.3

Are Campaigns Too Expensive? Yes

2008 federal elections cost $5 billion Fundraising distracts from official duties

No Only .05% of GDP spent on elections About the cost of one DVD per person

How to reform system? Reforms are not easy since Citizens United decision

that equates campaign spending with speech. Makes most restrictions on campaign financing

unconstitutional.

9.3

Video: In the Real World

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg5_Elections_v2.html

9.3

Does Money Buy Victory?

Is there a link between money and votes? Some say no Spend more only when weak

Doctrine of sufficiency No need to outspend opponent to win Some candidates who outspent their opponents 5 to

1 and yet lost

9.3

9.3 What are independent political expenditures?

a. Money spent between campaigns to keep an official visible to voters

b. Money spent on bumper stickers and lawn signs to support a candidate

c. Money spent without coordination with a campaign

d. Money spent to endorse a candidate explicitly

9.3

9.3 What are independent political expenditures?

a. Money spent between campaigns to keep an official visible to voters

b. Money spent on bumper stickers and lawn signs to support a candidate

c. Money spent without coordination with a campaign

d. Money spent to endorse a candidate explicitly

9.3

Impact of Campaigns

How important are campaigns? Reinforcement - voters’ preferences for

candidates Activation - getting them to contribute time or

money rather than merely voting Conversion of voters, or changing their minds

Campaigns mainly reinforce and activate

9.4

Impact of Campaigns Why are conversions rare?

Selective perception Paying more attention to things they already agree

with and interpret events according to their own predispositions

People vote according to party identification Incumbent advantage

Name recognition and record also tends to outweigh the influence of political campaigns

Wedge issuesSplits members of the other party and tries to

lure voters who feel strongly about that one issue

Republicans – pro-life Democrats Democrats – pro-choice Republicans

9.4

Video: New Media: Campaign Money

9.4

9.4 In what way is a campaign least likely to influence voters?

a. Activating voters to participate or

contribute money

b. Converting voters to switch sides

c. Reinforcing voters’ preference for

candidates

d. None of the above

9.4

a. Activating voters to participate or

contribute money

b. Converting voters to switch sides

c. Reinforcing voters’ preference for

candidates

d. None of the above

9.4 In what way is a campaign least likely to influence voters?

9.4

Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice

Deciding Whether to Vote

Registering to Vote

Who Votes?

9.5

2008 Minnesota Senate race 9.5

Occasionally election outcomes are so close that all the individual ballots have to be carefully recounted. Here, an election official examines a ballot in the 2008 Minnesota Senate race, with representatives from the opposing candidates observing on either side. In the original count, Norm Coleman finished 215 votes ahead, but after the recount Al Franken won the election by 225 votes.

Deciding Whether to Vote

Does one vote matter?

Voting is costly Tuesday is a workday

Is it rational to vote? Policy differences

If you see genuine policy differences between candidates

Political efficacy Believes that ordinary people can

influence government Civic duty

9.5

Video: In Context

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg3_Voting_v2.html

9.5

Registering to Vote Voter registration laws differ by state

Some states allow registration on the day of election

Others require registration well beforehand States with less requirements have higher

turnouts Motor Voter Act (1993)

allowed voters to register by ticking a box on their driver’s license

application or renewal forms .

Voter ID laws Show government-issued photo ID to vote Some believe this discriminates against some

groups

9.5

Who Votes?

EducationMain factor Increased sense of political efficacy Ease of clearing bureaucratic hurdles

Age – second greatest predictorOlder = more likely to vote Younger (under 25) citizens less settled

Race and ethnicity Black and Hispanic turnout lower

Gender, marital status, govt. employment

9.5

TABLE 9.2: Reported turnout rates for groups of U.S. citizens in 2008 and 2010

9.5

Rock the Vote 9.5

Rock the Vote 9.5

Rock the Vote tries to persuade young people to vote by using pop stars to engage their attention.

Consider whether or not low voter turnout is a bad thing. Should we be concerned if not everyone votes? Why?

9.5 Which demographic group is most likely to vote?

a. Young Hispanics with high school diplomas

b. Young single whites with college degrees

c. Older married people with college degrees

d. Older single people without high school

diplomas

9.5

9.5 Which demographic group is most likely to vote?

a. Young Hispanics with high school diplomas

b. Young single whites with college degrees

c. Older married people with college degrees

d. Older single people without high school

diplomas

9.5

Video: Thinking Like a Political Scientist

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg4_Elections_v2.html

9.5

How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions Party Identification

Candidate Evaluations: How Americans See the Candidates

Policy Voting

2012

9.6

Party Identification

Provide a stable perspective Voters rarely change their party identification

Similar to sports teams loyalty and religion Cue to who is on one’s sideSimplifies candidate selection

“My party—right or wrong” no more Party loyalty has eroded since the 1960s

Campaigns are more about individuals now instead of parties

Floating voters –depends on candidate not party Likely to be younger

9.6

Candidate Evaluations: How Americans See the Candidates Image is key to getting votes

Integrity Reliability Competence

Is it superficial and irrational for voters to pick candidates based on perceived personal qualities rather than policy positions? Images are crafted by consultants You can’t know or agree with the candidate

on every policy issue

9.6

Policy Voting

Voting based on issue preferences Clear sense of policy preferencesKnow where candidates stand on issues Differences between candidates on issues Vote for candidate closest to own

preferences Preferences may not line-up with one

candidate Better of two evils

Candidates deliberately vague

9.6

2012: A Battle for the Middle-Class Vote

Obama’s “titanic struggle” for reelection Economy and voting behavior

Reward the party in power in good economic times and punish in bad times

Change versus experience McCain linked with unpopular Bush in 2008 Obama linked with economic woes in 2012

9.6

9.6 Why is it difficult for voters to choose candidates based on issue preferences?

a. Candidates are deliberately ambiguous on policy

b. Voters change preferences often

c. Party platforms are not released publicly

d. Issues change from election to election

9.6

9.6 Why is it difficult for voters to choose candidates based on issue preferences?

a. Candidates are deliberately ambiguous on policy

b. Voters change preferences often

c. Party platforms are not released publicly

d. Issues change from election to election

9.6

FIGURE 9.3: Electoral College and exit poll results for 2012

9.6

School House Rock – Electoral College

9.6

Last Battle: The Electoral College Unique American institution

Most people want it abolished Archaic and undemocratic

Founders’ plan and revisions President elected by elites Electors = number of Congressmen 48 states are winner-take-all

Maine and Nebraska divide their electoral votes

proportionally Needs 270 votes to win

Battleground states

9.7

9.7 How many electors does each state have?

a. Same as number of senators

b. Same as number of representatives in the House

c. Same as number of senators plus number of representatives in the House

d. Same number for each state, regardless of size

9.7

9.7 How many electors does each state have?

a. Same as number of senators

b. Same as number of representatives in the House

c. Same as number of senators plus number of representatives in the House

d. Same number for each state, regardless of size

9.7

Explore the Electoral College: Is the Electoral College Democratic?

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_magleby_mpslgbp_25/pex/pex8.html

9.7

Understanding Campaigns and Voting Behavior

Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic?

Do Elections Affect Public Policy?

Do Campaigns Lead to Increases in the Scope of Government?

9.8

Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic? Outsiders have a way in

Candidates chosen by voters, not party elites

The permanent campaignVoters overwhelmedLengthy process discourages candidatesFundraising is worrisome burden

9.8

Oath of office 9.8

Do Elections Affect Public Policy?

Two-way street Elections affect public policy to some degree Public policy decisions affect electoral

outcomes to some degree Depends on policy differences between

candidates

9.8

Do Campaigns Lead to Increases in the Scope of Government?

Local promises add up Government is the servant not its master

9.8

9.8 How does democracy increase the scope of government?a. Voters have less fear of power in a

government they can change

b. Candidates promise to bring tax money home in the form of programs and subsidies

c. Both of the above

d. Neither of the above

9.8

9.8 How does democracy increase the scope of government?a. Voters have less fear of power in a

government they can change

b. Candidates promise to bring tax money home in the form of programs and subsidies

c. Both of the above

d. Neither of the above

9.8

Explore the Simulation: You Are a Voter Registration Volunteer

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_longman_media_1/2013_mpsl_sim/simulation.html?simulaURL=14

9.8

Discussion Question

Who votes and who doesn’t in America? What factors influence whether or not someone is likely to vote? Why is voter participation lower in the United States than in most other democracies?

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Video: So What?

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Edwards_Ch09_Campaigns_and_Voting_Behavior_Seg6_v2.html

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Video CitationCampaign Finance Reform. YouTube.com Stossel In the Classroom. Web. 14 Jul 2013. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeHxSW52Hmc Campaign Money. YouTube.com. 17 Apr 2008. 26 Jul 2014. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lsj9MXJj3UColbert and his Colbert Super PAC. YouTube.com. 8 Apr 2013. Web. 26 Jul 2014. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cet3NcNNSc4School House Rock – Electoral College. YouTube.com. 6 March 2009. Web. 26 Jul 2014. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyIFqf3XH24 How Does A Caucus Work Anyway (CBS News). YouTube.com. 2 Jan 2008. Web. 26 Jul 2014. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fobO82jbNRg Rock the Vote #WeWill Video. YouTube.com. 18 Sep 2012 . Web. 26 Jul 2014. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AeRFhwSYVQ Superdelegates 101. YouTube.com 07 Feb 2008. Web. 26 Jul 2014. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_frBqNImlsThe Money Trail (ABC). ABC News. 26 Sept 2006. Web 26 Jul 2013. http://abcnews.go.com/US/video/emmy-award-winner-money-trail-2492568

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