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Making Clean Local Energy Accessible Now 7 November 2013
Craig LewisExecutive DirectorClean Coalition650-796-2353 mobilecraig@clean-coalition.org
Hunters Point DG + IG ProjectGrid Modernization for a 21st Century Power System
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Clean Coalition – Mission and Advisors
Board of AdvisorsJeff Anderson
Co-founder and Former ED, Clean Economy Network
Josh BeckerGeneral Partner and Co-founder, New Cycle Capital
Pat BurtCEO, Palo Alto Tech Group;
Councilman & Former Mayor, City of Palo Alto
Jeff BrothersCEO, Sol Orchard
Jeffrey ByronVice Chairman National Board of Directors, Cleantech Open; Former Commissioner, CEC
Rick DeGoliaSenior Business Advisor, InVisM, Inc.
John GeesmanFormer Commissioner, CEC
Eric GimonIndependent Energy Expert
Patricia GlazaPrincipal, Arsenal Venture Partners
Mark Z. JacobsonDirector of the Atmosphere/Energy Program &
Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University
Dan KammenDirector of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory at UC Berkeley; Former Chief Technical
Specialist for RE & EE, World Bank
Fred KeeleyTreasurer, Santa Cruz County, and Former Speaker
pro Tempore of the California State Assembly
Felix KramerFounder, California Cars Initiative
Amory B. LovinsChairman and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain
Institute
L. Hunter LovinsPresident, Natural Capitalism Solutions
Ramamoorthy RameshFounding Director, DOE SunShot Initiative
Governor Bill RitterDirector, Colorado State University’s Center for the
New Energy Economy, and Former Colorado Governor
Terry TamminenFormer Secretary of the California EPA and Special
Advisor to CA Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
Jim WeldonTechnology Executive
R. James WoolseyChairman, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies; Former Director of Central
Intelligence (1993-1995)
Kurt YeagerVice Chairman, Galvin Electricity Initiative; Former
CEO, Electric Power Research Institute
MissionTo accelerate the transition to local energy systems through innovative policies and programs that deliver cost-effective
renewable energy, strengthen local economies, foster environmental sustainability, and provide energy resilience
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Distributed Generation + Intelligent Grid
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Plan for Renewables Everywhere within D-grid
Retail DGServes Onsite
Loads
Central Generation Serves Remote Loads
Distribution Grid
Transmission Grid
Project Size
Wholesale DGServes Local Loads
Behind the Meter
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WDG Delivers Scale & Cost-Effectiveness Fast
Solar Markets: Germany vs California (RPS + CSI + other)
Germany has deployed 12 times more solar than California in the last decade despite California’s 70% better solar resource!!!
Sources: CPUC, CEC, SEIA and German equivalents.
Cum
ulat
ive
MW
2002 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
CaliforniaGermany
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German Solar Pricing Translates to 5 cents/kWh
Project Size Euros/kWh USD/kWh California Effective Rate $/kWh
Under 10 kW 0.145 0.1903 0.0762
10 kW to 40 kW 0.138 0.1805 0.0722
40.1 kW to 1 MW 0.123 0.161 0.0644
1.1 MW to 10 MW 0.101 0.1317 0.0527
Conversion rate for Euros to Dollars is €1:$1.309California’s effective rate is reduced 40% due to tax incentives and then an additional 33% due to the superior solar resource
Source: http://www.wind-works.org/cms/index.php?id=92, 10 September 2013
Replicating German scale and efficiencies would yield rooftop solar at only between 5 and 7 cents/kWh to California ratepayers
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DG+IG Initiative = Proving Feasibility of High DG
Work with five utilities across the US to deploy a DG+IG demonstration project at each by yearend-2015
Prove viability of Distributed Generation (DG) providing at least 25% of total electric energy consumed within a single substation grid area
Integrate Intelligent Grid (IG) solutions to ensure that grid reliability is maintained or improved from original level
IG solutions include diversity and Energy Storage for sure, and potentially, advanced inverters, forecasting & curtailment, and/or Demand Response
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Benefits of DG+IG and Community Microgrids
Power Quality, Reliability & Resilience benefitsIncreased customer satisfactionImproved equipment longevitySustained vital services in otherwise complete blackout scenariosAvoided transmission & central generation vulnerabilities
Economic benefitsSignificant private-sector investmentSubstantial local job creationFixed electricity prices for 20+ yearsLocalized energy spendingAvoided inefficiencies of central generation & transmission
Environmental benefitsAvoiding dirty power generation, including nasty peaker plants that are often sited in underserved communitiesUtilizing built-environments and disturbed lands for generation projectsPreserving pristine environments from transmission lines and other infrastructure
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Bayview-Hunters Point (BHP) Background
• BHP has a long history of environmental degradation.
• Houses one third of San Francisco’s hazardous waste sites.
• Was site of California's dirtiest peaker power plant until community activism forced its closure in 2010.
• 20% of BHP children suffer from asthma, and other chronic illnesses, 4 times CA average
• BHP has one of the highest poverty rates in San Francisco, with 30% of families earning less that $10,000 per year, and a median household income of $29,640 annually, as compared to $65,000 for white San Franciscans and a $55,221 average citywide.
• An overwhelming 72% of the African Americans in BHP have incomes below the federal poverty level.
Sources: Hunters Point Family and Grid Alternatives.
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Hunters Point Project Scope & DeliverablesIdentify prospective sites and components for DG+IG solutions throughout Bayview-Hunters Point (BHP), including PV, biogas, wind, storage, demand response, and advanced inverters
Model and simulate existing grid characteristics
Model and simulate DG+IG scenarios that maintain or improve grid power quality, reliability, and resilience
Recommend the optimum DG+IG scenario that best balances system cost & performance considerations
Quantify the benefits of the recommended DG+IG scenario in terms of economics, environment, and grid efficiency & performance
Design streamlined procurement & interconnection procedures
Secure approvals for full DG+IG deployment
Deploy!!!
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New Construction vs Retrofit Comparison
Hunters Point Substation serves Major Redevelopment Area & Continuing Urban Neighborhoods (about 40/60 split)
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Hunters Point Project Goals
Get at least 25% of the electric energy consumed within the Hunters Point substation area (Bayview-Hunters Point) coming from local renewables
Deliver a proven model for maximizing local renewables under San Francisco’s 2020 goal to be 100% powered by renewables
Achieve about $250 million dollars of private investment in Bayview-Hunters Point with about a third going to local wages
Reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50M pounds
Serve as a model for clean local energy that can easily be scaled and replicated across the globe
Provide a compelling business case for Community Microgrids that inspires cities and communities everywhere to implement Distributed Generation + Intelligent Grid (DG+IG) projects
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Starting Point: BHP Total Load
Hunters Point Total Average Load: 328,217 MWh = 37.5 MW(ac)• Existing conventional: 236,520 MWh = 27 MW(ac)• Existing DG (PV+Biopower): 13,338 MWh = 1.5 MW(ac)• Planned for Redev Zone: 78,359 MWh = 8.9 MW(ac)
PG&E Average Load Calculation• kW average = kWHr / Hrs • kW average = kW peak x PG&E
Load Factor. DART has different LFs for each customer type.
• kW peak and load factors provided by PG&E
PG&E Load – Existing
Summer KVA Winter KVAFeeder KVA Lds fm LF KVA Lds fm LFSF P 1101 3,428 3,193 SF P 1102 4,383 5,062 SF P 1103 2,518 2,947 SF P 1104 325 451 SF P 1105 4,679 4,685 SF P 1106 1,836 1,769 SF P 1107 4,238 4,616 SF P 1108 2,167 2,849 SF P 1109 2,433 2,242
Totals: 26,008 27,815
NOTE: For all slides, average load is in MW (dc), total load is in MWh (ac) – except where noted; e.g. where average load represents conventional rather than
renewable resources.
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Next: BHP DG Potential = 50MW New PV
Bayview/Hunters Point DG Potential: 95,194 MWh = 60.6 MW = 30% of Total Load• New PV: 52.1 MW• Existing DG: 8.5 MW (PV equivalent)
Type Avg. Load (MW)
Total Load(MWHr)
New PV: Commercial
11.0 17,333
New PV: Residential
18.0 28,275
New PV: Parking Lots
2.6 4,102
New PV: Redev Zone
20.5 32,146
Total New PV 52.1 MW 81,856
Existing PV Equiv. 8.5 13,338
Total DG Potential: 60.6 95,194
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BHP DG Potential: Commercial
Potential PV: Commercial RooftopsHighlights:
• Number of visually-sited highest value “A” sites = 34• Total PV-potential rooftop square feet = 1.4M
• Total participating sq. ft. @ 50% = 736K• Total average generation, participating rooftops = 11 MW
Example: 180 Napolean St.• PV Sq. Ft = 47,600• System size = 714 kW
Hunters Point Rooftops - Commercial
AssumptionsWatts/sq. ft. 15
PV hrs./yr. 1570Participation Factor 50%
ResultsTotal Sq. Ft. 1,472,000
Total Sq. Ft. Participating 736,000 Total Watts Participating 11,040,000
Total PV in MW 11.0 Total PV in Annual MWhr 17,333
Average kW per site 649
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BHP DG Potential: Parking Lots
Potential PV: Parking LotsHighlights:
• Number of visually-sited highest value “A” sites = 13• Total PV-potential parking lot square feet = 348K
• Total participating sq. ft. @ 50% = 174K• Total average generation, participating parking lots = 2.6 MW
Example: 1485 Bay Shore Blvd• PV Sq. Ft = 37,800• System size = 567 kW
Hunters Point Parking Lots
AssumptionsWatts/sq. ft. 15
PV hrs./yr. 1,570 Participation Factor 50%
ResultsTotal Sq. Ft. 348,400
Total Sq. Ft Participating 174,200Total Watts Participating 2,613,000
Total PV in MW 2.6Total PV in Annaul MWh 4,102
Average kW per site 402
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BHP DG Potential: Residential
Potential PV: Residential RooftopsHighlights:
• Total residential sites = 14,000• Average PV-viable square feet per residence (from 50 sites) = 343
• Total PV-potential residential square feet = 4.8M• Total participating sq. ft. @ 25% = 1.2M
• Total average generation, participating rooftops = 18 MW
Example: 50 average rooftops• Average PV Sq. Ft = 343• Average system size = 5 kW
Hunters Point Rooftops - Residential
AssumptionsWatts/sq. ft. 15
PV hrs./yr. 1570Participation Factor 25%
ResultsTotal HH 14,000
Average PV-viable sq. ft. per HH 343 Total PV-viable Sq. Ft. 4,802,560
Total PV-viable Sq. Ft. Participating 1,200,640 Total PV in Watts 18,009,600
Total PV in MW 18.0 Total PV in Annual MWh 28,275
Average PV system size per HH, kW 5
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BHP DG Potential: Redev Zone
Potential PV: Redev ZoneHighlights – total planned load of 78,359 MWh/yr:
• Total planned rooftop square feet in HP = 4.2M• Total rooftop square feet in HP = 2.73M
• Total participating sq. ft. @ 50% = 1.365M• Total average generation, participating rooftops = 20.5 MW
Hunters Point Rooftops – Redev Zone
AssumptionsWatts/sq. ft. 15
PV hrs./yr. 1570HP % of Redev Zone 65%Participation Factor 50%
ResultsTotal Planned Rooftop Sq. Ft. 4,200,000
Total Rooftop Sq. Ft. in HP Substation 2,730,000 Total PV-usable Sq. Ft. Participating 1,365,000
Total PV in Watts 20,475,000 Total PV in MW 20.5
Total PV in annual MWh 32,146
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Benefits of 50 MW New DG in BHP
Source: NREL JEDI calculator. Based on average installed cost of $3.25/W(ac) before taxes & incentives using PG&E rates/region.
Economic$233M total regional economic output1,560 Job Yearsnear-term regional employment590 Job Yearsongoing regional employment$85Mlocal wages in construction & installation$6.75Mstate/local construction-related sales taxes
Energy$244Mlocal energy spend vs. imported over 20 years$79.7Mavoided transmission costs over 20 yearsLower cost vs. natural gas14.9¢/kWh solar vs. $15.3¢/kWh CCNG LCOE
Environment82M lbs. annual reductions in GHG emissions
15M Gallons annual water savings
Photo courtesy of GRID Alternatives
~$250M in Private Investment Over 20 Years Delivers These Regional Benefits:
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Peek of the Future at Hunters Point
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Back-Up Slides
Back-Up Slides
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Example DG+IG Grid Stabilization
1. 6AM: • no PV impact
2. Noon: • 20MW PV causes
overvoltage without DG+IG
3. Noon: • DG+IG stabilizes
voltage impact from 20MW PV
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Advanced Inverters – Reactive Power Champion
P100%
Q 45.8%
S110%
REACTIVE (Q)
REAL (P)
100 kW solar PV AC power110 kVA inverter capacity0.9 power factor45.8 kVAr reactive power100 kW real power
Oversized inverter:• No reduction of PV real power• Draws up to 10 kW real power from
the grid• Provides reactive power 24/7/365
P: Real power (kW)Q: Reactive power (kVAr)S: Total power (kVA)
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Example DG+IG Grid Stabilization
1. 6AM: • no PV impact
2. Noon: • 20MW PV causes
overvoltage without DG+IG
3. Noon: • DG+IG stabilizes
voltage impact from 20MW PV
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Distributed Voltage Regulation – Location Matters
“The old adage is that reactive power does not travel well.”
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2008)
Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2008)
T&D lines absorb 8-20x more reactive power than real power.
Prevent Blackouts:When a transmission path is lost, remaining lines are heavily loaded and losses are higher.
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Replacing SONGS with DG+IG
Huntington Beach 290 MVars
(minus line losses = 261 MVars)
vs
570 MW of local solar with advanced inverters, oversized by 10% set at 0.9 Power Factor = 261 MVArs
Local solar configured with advanced inverters alone can replace SONGS
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Replace SONGS – Energy Storage Potential
Targets proposed by CPUC include 745 MW storage in Southern California
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PV Potential of Top 25 Roofs in LA is Over 75 MW
RankPotential Size (kW)
Address Description
1 6,987 300 WESTMONT DR Warehousing, Distribution, Storage2 6,296 3880 N MISSION RD Warehousing, Distribution, Storage3 4,797 400 WESTMONT DR Warehousing, Distribution, Storage4 4,524 20525 NORDHOFF ST Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts5 4,402 2501 S ALAMEDA ST Warehousing, Distribution, Storage6 3,771 4544 COLORADO BLVD Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts7 3,629 1800 N MAIN ST Warehousing, Distribution, Storage8 3,597 5500 CANOGA AVE Heavy Manufacturing9 3,596 20333 NORMANDIE AVE Food Processing Plants10 3,366 8500 BALBOA BLVD Heavy Manufacturing11 3,351 6600 TOPANGA CANYON BLVD Shopping Centers (Regional)12 3,313 401 WESTMONT DR Warehousing, Distribution, Storage13 3,052 9301 TAMPA AVE Shopping Centers (Regional)14 2,806 11428 SHERMAN WAY Warehousing, Distribution, Storage15 2,703 3820 UNION PACIFIC AVE Heavy Manufacturing16 2,693 1601 E OLYMPIC BLVD Warehousing, Distribution, Storage17 2,673 9120 MASON AVE Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts18 2,672 12745 ARROYO ST Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts19 2,431 5525 W IMPERIAL HWY Heavy Manufacturing20 2,430 8201 WOODLEY AVE Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts21 2,404 8900 DE SOTO AVE Heavy Manufacturing22 2,201 3410 N SAN FERNANDO RD Lgt Manf.Sm. EQPT. Manuf Sm.Shps Instr.Manuf. Prnt Plnts23 2,171 12820 PIERCE ST Warehousing, Distribution, Storage24 2,149 4024 RADFORD AVE Motion Picture, Radio & Television25 2,126 3020 E WASHINGTON BLVD Heavy Manufacturing
100+ GW of Built-Environment Solar Potential in California vs 60 GW of Peak Load
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Renewables are Reliable
CountryPercent of electrical
generation in 2007 from non-hydro renewables
2007 SAIDI – outage duration (minutes)
2007 SAIFI – outage frequency (number of
outage events)
Denmark 29.4% 23 0.5
Germany 12% 24 0.5
United States 2.8% 240 1.5
Sources: Galvin Electricity Initiative, Electric Reliability: Problems, Progress and Policy Solutions, February 2011U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics, 2011
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DG+IG Core Solutions for Voltage RegulationSolutions Benefits
Distributed Generation
• Provisions reactive power where it’s needed most for regulation• Avoids line losses• Reduces congestion of transmission and distribution lines
Advanced Inverters(paired with solar,
storage)
• Provisions distributed reactive power • Reacts automatically within fractions of a second (conventional
resources can take minutes to react)• Converts real power from the grid to reactive power 24/7/365• Oversized inverters can deliver reactive power without reducing DG
real power output• Ride-through voltage events, remain attached longer than
conventional spinning generators without harm• Modern inverters already have these advanced capabilities
Energy Storage(batteries, flywheel)
• Provisions both real and reactive power• Generally paired with advanced inverters
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DG+IG Solutions for Balancing Power & FrequencySolutions Benefits
Demand Response
• Automated demand response can address power imbalances within fractions of a second
• Reduces or shift load away from peak hours to free up other resources to provide real power
Energy Storage(batteries, flywheel)
• Supplies and absorbs power• Can reduce or shift load• Can react automatically within fractions of a second
Forecasting • Forecasting improvements will reduce unpredicted differences between scheduled supply and actual supply
Curtailment (proactive ramp control)
• Reduce output from intermittent generators for proactive ramp control to smooth out short term impulse
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DG+IG Keeps Power in Balance
DR, ES shifts load
DR, ES shifts load
ES, Auto-DR, curtail for steep
ramp
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DG+IG Projects Begin with Grid Modeling & Simulation
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DG+IG Policy Innovations RequiredIntegrate Grid Planning
Transparent and public T&D planning processes Proactively evaluate DG+IG alternatives to new transmission investmentsNecessary to meet goals re: renewables, EVs, costs, local job creation, resilience
Implement Full Cost & Value AccountingInvestments should reflect the full spectrum of rate impacts, economic growth, health, safety, and environmental sustainabilityPrevent bias against DG+IG (e.g. hidden transmission costs)
Monetize DG+IG Grid Services Establishing markets that compensate at full value of grid services is fundamental to optimizing value for ratepayers
Prioritize DG+IG Development in High Value LocationsIdentify preferred locations on the grid based on transparent cost & value criteriaSet “Local Portfolio Standard” targets
Update Technical Standards: Update national technical standards (IEEE/ UL) to allow DG+IG to provide grid services to the fullest potential
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Clean Coalition Overarching Objectives
From 2020 onward, at least 50% of all new electricity generation in the United States will be from local sources.
Locally generated electricity does not travel over high voltage transmission lines to get from the location it is generated to the area it is consumed.
From 2020 onward, at least 80% of all new electricity generation in the United States will be from renewable sources.
By 2020, policies and programs are well established for ensuring successful fulfillment of the other two objectives.
Policies reflect the full value of local renewable energy.Programs prove the superiority of local energy systems in terms of economics, environment, and resilience.
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Clean Coalition Activities in 2013Policy: Implement policy innovations that remove barriers and open market opportunities for Distributed Generation (DG) and Intelligent Grid (IG) solutions
Key victories: SB 43, AB 327 and positioning of Advanced Inverter as key reactive power solution
Wholesale DG Programs: Establish and expand market opportunities for WDG across the country
Key victories: Georgia Power, Los Angeles, Long Island, Palo Alto, Fort Collins, and Sacramento
DG+IG: Stage five DG+IG demonstration projects for online by yearend-2015Key progress: Hunters Point (PG&E), Virgin Islands (WAPA), Palo Alto, and Los Angeles
Solar Developers Council: Open markets & remove barriers for membersKey progress: Multiple new WDG programs established and key policy victories
Communications: Increase impact and frequency of communicationsKey progress: Three key communications pieces per month plus heavy blogging, rapid response, and social media activities. New concepts like Advanced Inverters.
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Hunters Point Scale: Cost Benefit
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
550 MW CCNG Annual Fixed and Variable Power Plant Costs$/MWh
Total Costs
Variable Costs
Fixed Costs
Year
$/M
Wh
Busbar wholesale cost from plant2015: $11.7 ¢/kWh2024: $17.1 ¢/kWh2034: $21.7 ¢/kWh
LCEO: $15.4 ¢/kWh
Hunters Point Solar LCOE is less than CCNGN
ATU
RA
L G
AS
SOLA
R
500 kW Solar achieves lower LCOE than new natural gas generation – Hunters Point average expected commercial size = 650 kW
Source: CEC, 2010
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Zero Net Energy is Key Driver for Smart Buildings
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Adoption Cycle: Demos, Certs, Standards & Codes
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Buildings of 2030 Must Fit with Cities of Future
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Expect EV Chargers Everywhere
EVs provide the CLEAN Bridge between Energy, Buildings, Cities and Transportation
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German Solar Capacity is Small WDG (Rooftops)
up to 10 kW 10 to 30 kW 30 to 100 kW 100 kW to 1 MW over 1 MW -
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
German Solar PV Capacity Installed in 2010
MW
Source: Paul Gipe, March 2011
Germany’s solar deployments are almost entirely sub-2 MW projects on built-environments and interconnected to the distribution grid (not behind-the-meter)
22.5%
26%
23.25%
9.25%
19%
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US has Far Better Solar Resource than Germany
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WDG is Key Market Segment with Superior Value
The most cost-effective solar is large WDG, not central station due to significant hidden T&D costs
Distribution Grid T-Grid
PV Project size and type
100kW roof
500kW roof
1 MW roof
1 MW ground
5 MW ground
50 MW ground
Required PPA Rate
16¢ 15¢ 13¢ 9-11¢ 8-10¢ 7-9¢
T&D costs 0¢ 0¢ 0¢ 0¢ 0¢ 2-4¢
Ratepayer cost per kWh
16¢ 15¢ 13¢ 9-11¢ 8-10¢ 9-13¢
Sources: CAISO, CEC, and Clean Coalition, Nov2012; see full original analysis from Jul2011 at www.clean-coalition.org/studies
Total Ratepayer Cost of Solar
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Deployment Volume Drives Learning Curves
Si learning curve
Solar pricing is reduced by 20% for every doubling of deployed volume
New technology learning curve
Efficiency innovation