Post on 17-Jul-2015
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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Tuesday, 05 May 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price 1st
Target
GISS 88.40 85.60
QNCD 122.00 126.00
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 12,123.22 -0.6 5.3
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 12,200 12,400 12,600
Support 12,100 12,000 11,800
QSE Index Commentary
Overview: The QSE Index dropped and lost around 0.6% on slightly higher traded volumes. The uptrend channel (seen on the intraday chart) has been compromised as the Index breached through the lower part of that channel. This could be the start of a corrective wave; targeting 12,000 (please note that the 12,100 is considered a soft support level). Expected Resistance Level: 12,200 Expected Support Level: 12,000
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 04 May 15 03 May 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 371.9 256.3 45.1
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 653.1 656.0 -0.4
Volume (mn) 8.3 7.1 17.3
Number of Trans. 4,886 4,318 13.2
Companies Traded 41 42 -2.4
Market Breadth 12:28 21:17 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 18,840.12 -0.6 58.1
All Share Index 3,246.04 -0.5 59.7
Banks 3,227.37 -0.5 53.8
Industrials 4,054.50 -0.3 61.7
Transportation 2,508.79 -1.3 61.1
Real Estate 2,605.59 -0.7 61.6
Insurance 4,192.58 0.4 59.8
Telecoms 1,281.79 -1.7 34.3
Consumer 7,469.77 0.3 72.8
Al Rayan Islamic 4,635.35 -0.7 67.2
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
MERS 250.00 -0.8 78.9
GWCS 77.80 -2.9 75.6
MCGS 173.50 -0.3 75.5
QEWS 212.00 0.0 73.2
QGMD 14.90 4.4 72.6
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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GISS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 88.40 -0.79 161,935
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 90.60 91.30 93.50
Support 87.70 85.60 82.00
Commentary
Overview: GISS created a Tweezers-Top candlesticks formation; it is a bearish reversal formation. The mentioned tops were created at an important resistance level (see the horizontal red lines on the daily chart). The MACD on the daily is below zero and might continue further down. Expected Price Retreat: QR85.60 – QR82.00 A sustained breach below QR87.70 triggers the sell recommendation.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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QNCD
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 122.00 0.83 10,043
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 122.00 123.00 126.00
Support 120.00 115.00 114.00
Commentary
Overview: The name has been trading in a range for the past four months. It is bouncing off the base of that range and could continue further up. Risk takers can take long positions around here; others can wait for a confirmation to break above QR123.00. If price breaks above QR123.00 then a bullish reversal Double Bottom is formed. Expected Target Price: QR126.00 – 130.00 A break above QR123.00 is recommended before taking a long position. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR117.00
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 12,123.22 12,046.85 12,087.40 12,112.46 12,153.02 12,193.57 12,218.63 12,259.19 11,951.63 12,037.63 12,770.13
Total Return 18,840.12 18,721.43 18,784.46 18,823.40 18,886.42 18,949.45 18,988.39 19,051.41 18,440.87 18,279.87 19,209.46
All Share 3,246.04 3,227.41 3,237.16 3,243.18 3,252.93 3,262.68 3,268.70 3,278.45 3,178.23 3,146.26 3,281.37
Al Rayan Islamic 4,635.35 4,587.47 4,613.32 4,629.29 4,655.14 4,680.99 4,696.96 4,722.81 4,402.89 4,258.70 4,415.80
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 47.90 47.30 47.64 47.86 48.20 48.54 48.76 49.10 47.43 46.52 49.87
CBQK 56.70 55.97 56.20 56.34 56.57 56.80 56.94 57.17 58.99 60.23 62.45
DHBK 54.60 54.33 54.49 54.58 54.73 54.89 54.98 55.13 52.99 54.82 57.05
QIBK 101.10 100.50 100.84 101.06 101.40 101.74 101.96 102.30 101.00 102.23 106.81
QIIK 80.70 80.43 80.59 80.68 80.83 80.99 81.08 81.23 81.53 81.33 84.07
Insurance
QATI 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 77.92 76.93 79.93
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 173.50 168.77 170.52 171.61 173.37 175.12 176.21 177.97 152.70 138.02 131.13
Industrials
IQCD 147.50 145.97 146.65 147.08 147.77 148.45 148.88 149.57 142.57 150.71 168.90
QEWS 212.00 209.00 210.34 211.16 212.50 213.84 214.66 216.00 193.05 191.43 189.59
GISS 88.40 87.80 88.11 88.29 88.60 88.91 89.09 89.40 90.62 93.90 105.88
QIGD 47.10 46.50 46.84 47.06 47.40 47.74 47.96 48.30 42.98 41.29 47.45
Real Estate
BRES 49.00 47.47 48.15 48.58 49.27 49.95 50.38 51.07 47.80 45.96 44.54
UDCD 23.00 22.77 22.87 22.92 23.01 23.11 23.16 23.25 22.36 23.09 25.53
ERES 16.95 16.66 16.79 16.87 17.00 17.13 17.21 17.34 16.14 15.68 17.67
MRDS 18.95 18.65 18.81 18.91 19.07 19.23 19.33 19.49 18.11 18.28 19.99
Telecommunication
ORDS 97.50 95.83 96.79 97.38 98.33 99.29 99.88 100.83 104.51 110.27 118.51
VFQS 16.71 16.58 16.65 16.69 16.77 16.84 16.88 16.96 17.54 16.75 18.43
Transportation
QGTS 22.60 22.47 22.54 22.59 22.67 22.74 22.79 22.87 23.11 23.21 23.69
QNNS 100.00 94.13 96.01 97.16 99.03 100.91 102.06 103.93 101.79 100.03 98.41 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts:
Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of HNI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
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