4.3.3 Time Series

UPA Package 4, Module 3

TIME SERIES

4.3.3 Time Series

Time Series

• Monitoring and Temporal Analysis• Index numbers• Feedback in the planning cycle• Growth Rates• Introduction exercise 4.3.3

4.3.3 Time Series

Monitoring: Slum Trend 1990 - 2001

4.3.3 Time Series

Monitoring: Proposed versus Real Land Use

Differences between master plan (1988) and reality (2000)

Wuhan, China

4.3.3 Time Series

Monitoring and Temporal Analysis

• Monitoring to analyze and understand changes over time

Spatial-temporal analysis

• Performance measuring

Feedback and adaptation of programs and policies

4.3.3 Time Series

Urban Growth, Villavicencio

Spatial – Temporal Urban Development

1970

1987 1994

4.3.3 Time Series4.3.3 Time Series

6

4.3.3 Time Series

Urban Growth, Wuhan

4.3.3 Time Series

Nairobi, Kibera (1968)

4.3.3 Time Series

Nairobi, Kibera (1978)

4.3.3 Time Series

Nairobi, Kibera (1987)

Small Format Aerial Photograph

Courtesy Paul Hofstee, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation

4.3.3 Time Series

Nairobi, Kibera (2002)

4.3.3 Time Series

Trujillo, Peru (1969)

Informal development

Aerial Photograph

4.3.3 Time Series

Trujillo, Peru (1997)

Informal development

Spatial-TemporalDevelopment

4.3.3 Time Series

Index Numbers

Index: composite measure of two or more indicators

e.g. consumer price index, human development index

Index number = (value / base value ) * 100

http://www.bls.gov/cpi

• define purpose of index• select data source• select base for comparison• select methods of aggregation and weighting

4.3.3 Time Series

Index Numbers

Comparing indexes, index number/proportion/percentage

Ii = (Mi / M0) * 100

Ii = Index number in year i

Mi = measurement in year i

M0 = measurement in base year

Price of cup of coffee in 2002 € 2.00

Price of cup of coffee in 2004 € 2,25

Price relative is (2.25/2.00) * 100 = 113

4.3.3 Time Series

Feedback in the Planning Cycle

• Assess current situation• Formulate policies and programs, prioritize objectives and

targets• Monitor implementation• Provide feedback to make mid-course changes• Communicate results

4.3.3 Time Series

Growth Rates

Annual population growth rate

Pt = P0 * (1+r)t

P0 = Population at the beginning of the period

Pt = Population at the end of the period

r = average annual growth rate

t = number of years in the period

4.3.3 Time Series

4.3.3 Time Series

Population Growth Rates

4.3.3 Time Series

Introduction Exercise 4.3.3

• (In) compatibility of data sets for different years

Changes in boundaries (splitting and merging of municipalities), code and name changes, new variables addes, old variables deleted, errors

• Calculate population and income changes in Dutch Municipalities between 1995 and 1999