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05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
2001 President George W. Bush takes office Band’s with #1 hits
Destiny’s Child Creed 2 Doors Down Shaggy Jay-Lo
http://www.angelfire.com/fl3/musicdays/at40.html Fashion trends from the Oscars
One-shouldered and strapless Red Major updos Curls and waves Trains on dresses Vintage looks Either nude lips or matte red Diamonds and pearls Hair accessories
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Levy
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
September 11, 2001
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Economic events of 2001
High flying stock market Internet bubble Interest rate increases Oil on the Rise Y2K and investment overhang September 11th, 2001
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Stock Market
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Oil PricesWest Texas Intermediate Crude; Monthly NSA, Dollars Per Barrel
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan-
90
Jul-9
0
Jan-
91
Jul-9
1
Jan-
92
Jul-9
2
Jan-
93
Jul-9
3
Jan-
94
Jul-9
4
Jan-
95
Jul-9
5
Jan-
96
Jul-9
6
Jan-
97
Jul-9
7
Jan-
98
Jul-9
8
Jan-
99
Jul-9
9
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Annual Inflation for Past 12 Months
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Ja
n-90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
All Items
Core: Less Food andEnergy
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Consumer Sentiment Falls
Consumer Sentiment; University of Michigan; 1966Q1=100; NSA
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-
99
Mar
-99
May
-99
Jul-9
9
Sep
-99
Nov
-99
Jan-
00
Mar
-00
May
-00
Jul-0
0
Sep
-00
Nov
-00
Jan-
01
Mar
-01
May
-01
Jul-0
1
Sep
-01
Nov
-01
Jan-
02
Mar
-02
May
-02
Jul-0
2
Sep
-02
Nov
-02
Jan-
03
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Short Term Interest Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12Ja
n-90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Federal funds (effective)Bank Prime Loan Rate
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Employment
Total nonfarm: Total Employment (thousands), SA
127000
128000
129000
130000
131000
132000
133000Ja
n-99
Mar
-99
May
-99
Jul-9
9
Sep
-99
Nov
-99
Jan-
00
Mar
-00
May
-00
Jul-0
0
Sep
-00
Nov
-00
Jan-
01
Mar
-01
May
-01
Jul-0
1
Sep
-01
Nov
-01
Jan-
02
Mar
-02
May
-02
Jul-0
2
Sep
-02
Nov
-02
Jan-
03
Thou
sand
s, S
A
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Gross domestic product
8,200.00
8,400.00
8,600.00
8,800.00
9,000.00
9,200.00
9,400.00
9,600.00
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
1998 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Personal consumption expenditures
5,400.00
5,600.00
5,800.00
6,000.00
6,200.00
6,400.00
6,600.00
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
1998 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Gross private domestic investment
1,200.00
1,300.00
1,400.00
1,500.00
1,600.00
1,700.00
1,800.00
1,900.00
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
1998 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Equipment and software
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
1998 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Help Wanted Advertising Index
Help Wanted Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
GDP
Real GDP % Change at Annual Rates
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan-99
Apr-99
Jul-99
Oct-99
Jan-00
Apr-00
Jul-00
Oct-00
Jan-01
Apr-01
Jul-01
Oct-01
Jan-02
Apr-02
Jul-02
Oct-02
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
If the Fed’s Uncertain...
Short Term Interest Rates
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan-
99
Mar
-99
May
-99
Jul-9
9
Sep
-99
Nov
-99
Jan-
00
Mar
-00
May
-00
Jul-0
0
Sep
-00
Nov
-00
Jan-
01
Mar
-01
May
-01
Jul-0
1
Sep
-01
Nov
-01
Jan-
02
Mar
-02
May
-02
Jul-0
2
Sep
-02
Nov
-02
Jan-
03
Federal funds (effective)Bank Prime Loan Rate
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Other Policy Response
Tax Cuts Rebates to people with dependents Tax breaks for corp. Investment incentives
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
How does this recession compare
Shorter? 8 months versus 10 for post WWII
Shallower
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Real GDPReal GDP
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
2000:2 2000:3 2000:4 2001:1 2001:2 2001:3 2001:4 2002:1 2002:2 2002:3 2002:4 2003:1 2003:2
2001:4Average prev 6 recessions
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Industrial Production
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.1
1.12
36647 36708 36770 36831 36892 36951 37012 37073 37135 37196 37257 37316 37377 37438 37500 37561 37622 37681 37742 37803
November 2001Average prev 6 recessions
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Employment
Payroll Employment
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1
1.02
1.04
36647 36708 36770 36831 36892 36951 37012 37073 37135 37196 37257 37316 37377 37438 37500 37561 37622 37681 37742 37803 37865
November 2001Average prev 6 recessions
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Total nonfarm: Total Employment (thousands), SA
100000
105000
110000
115000
120000
125000
130000
135000
Jan-
90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Thou
sand
s, S
A
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
How could policy respond differently?
Cut Interest Rates Quicker? Not raise interest by as much Shouldn’t have pricked the bubble
Tax incentives more directed? It was inevitable..
05/08/23 (C) 2003. Taggert J. Brooks
Data Sources
Bureau of Labor and Statistics Wisconsin Department of Workforce
Development Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Bureau of Economic Analysis Economagic.com MLS