3. Post-9/11 US Strategy3. Post-9/11 US Strategy

• How much has changed?

• How much has stayed the same?

Then Everything ChangedOr Did It?

Then Everything ChangedOr Did It?

PentagonPentagon

Traditional ThreatsTraditional Threats

• Nation-state rivalries

• Hegemon vs. Rising Challenger

VS.

New Threats EmergeNew Threats Emerge

1. Non-state Actors

2. Ideology

3. Disruption Global Insurgency Loosely connected networks From AQAM to transnational organized

crime

AQAM Power Projection2003-2011

AQAM Power Projection2003-2011

Why Non-State Actors have PowerWhy Non-State Actors have PowerGlobalization• Ease of travel• Ease of global finance• Communications revolution States

– Ability to communicate lose their

globally monopoly• Information revolution on

– Ability to share large influence

amounts of information with and

anyone, anywhere, anytime violence– Global spread of technology

GW Bush National Security StrategyGW Bush National Security Strategy

Maintain Core Strategy

1.Nuclear Deterrence and missile defense

2.Forward Presence

3.Peacetime Military Strength

4.Own the sea

5.NATO and other alliances

6.Free Trade and Commerce

7.Spread Democracy**

Innovations?Innovations?

1. Deter peer competitors

2. Deal with regional powers seeking WMD

3. Fight Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) or “The Long War”

4. Spread Democracy

1. Deter Peer Competitors1. Deter Peer Competitors

• Seapower• Forward Presence• Power Projection• “1-4-2-1” Capability

2. Deal with regional powers seeking WMD

2. Deal with regional powers seeking WMD

“Axis of Evil”

•Isolation

•sanctions

•Preemption

•Regime change

3. Fight Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) or “The Long War”

3. Fight Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) or “The Long War”

4. Spread Democracy4. Spread Democracy

• Neoconservatism

• Stability Operations

• COIN• US Army FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency, 2006• US State Department Counterinsurgency

Manual

US Domiance:Global Military Spending

US Domiance:Global Military Spending

SIPRI data http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/factsheet2010

•

Building World OrderBuilding World Order

• On global scale• Regionally: Regime Change and

Democracy Building • Afghanistan• Iraq

• Street by street

Limits to this strategy?

Clear LimitsClear Limits

Obama StrategyObama Strategy

Maintain Core Strategy

1.Nuclear Deterrence and missile defense

2.Forward Presence

3.Peacetime Military Strength

4.Own the sea

5.NATO and other alliances

6.Free Trade and Commerce

7.Spread Democracy**

Innovations?Innovations?

1. Recognition of new international order– Interdependence– Globalization– Rise of new powers

2. US still wants to shape international order2. US still wants to shape international order

Power projection (US and UK Carriers)

Preparing for A2AD StrategiesPreparing for A2AD Strategies

• Anti-Access/Area-Denial strategies

• China’s DF-21D

3. Focus on Non-state Actors3. Focus on Non-state Actors

AQAM

Osama bin-Laden May 2011

AQAP

Anwar al-Awlaki September 2011

OUT

• Iraq

• Afghanistan

IN (for training, joint exercises, or longer term deployments)

– Uganda– Australia– Djibouti– Niger– Indonesia…

Drone Strikes (Yemen 2002-2012)

Drone Strikes (Yemen 2002-2012)

4. Defend Global Commons4. Defend Global Commons

5. Pivot to Asia5. Pivot to Asia

Defense Guidance 2012: – Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership

Priorities for 21st Century Defense

Clinton at East-West Center– “America's Engagement in the

Asia-Pacific” text