Post on 21-Aug-2020
1
November 19th, 2014
Investing for growth: Acquisition of an additional 14.89% stake in Garanti
Jaime Sáenz de Tejada, Chief Financial Officer
NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, AUSTRALIA OR JAPAN OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION IN WHICH THE DISTRIBUTION OR RELEASE WOULD BE UNLAWFUL.
2
DisclaimerThe information contained herein is not for release, publication or distribution, directly or indirectly, in or into the United States, Canada, Australia or Japan or any otherjurisdiction in which the distribution or release would be unlawful.
These materials do not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of offers to purchase or subscribe for, securities in the United States or in any jurisdiction where suchoffer or sale would be unlawful. The securities referred to herein have not been, and will not be, registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and maynot be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from registration requirements. There is no intention to register any portion ofan offering in the United States or to conduct a public offering of securities in the United States. This document does not solicit money, securities or any other type ofconsideration and, if any money, securities or other type of consideration is sent in response hereto, it will not be accepted.
The issue or sale of securities is subject to specific legal or regulatory restrictions in certain jurisdictions. The Company assumes no responsibility in the event there is aviolation by any person of such restrictions.
The Company has not authorized any offer to the public of securities in any Member State of the European Economic Area. With respect to each Member State of theEuropean Economic Area which has implemented the Prospectus Directive (each, a “Relevant Member State”), no action has been undertaken or will be undertaken tomake an offer to the public of securities requiring publication of a prospectus in any Relevant Member State. As a result, the securities may only be offered in RelevantMember States (a) to any legal entity which is a qualified investor as defined in Article 2(1)(e) of the Prospectus Directive; or (b) in any other circumstances which donot require the publication by the Company of a prospectus pursuant to Article 3 of the Prospectus Directive. For the purposes of this paragraph, the expression an“offer of securities to the public” means the communication in any form and by any means of sufficient information on the terms of the offer and the securities to beoffered so as to enable an investor to decide to purchase the securities, as the same may be varied in that Member State by any measure implementing the ProspectusDirective in that Member State and the expression “Prospectus Directive” means Directive 2003/71/EC (and amendments thereto, including the 2010 PD AmendingDirective, to the extent implemented in the Relevant Member State), and includes any relevant implementing measure in the Relevant Member State and the expression“2010 PD Amending Directive” means Directive 2010/73/EU.
This communication is directed only at (i) persons who are outside the United Kingdom or (ii) in the United Kingdom, persons who have professional experience inmatters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the “Order”),or who are high net worth entities, and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2) of the Order (all such persons togetherbeing referred to as “relevant persons”). Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates will only be available to and will only be engaged inwith, relevant persons. Any person who is not a relevant person must not act or rely on this document or any of its contents.
This document contains or may contain forward looking statements (in the usual meaning and within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Act of 1995)regarding intentions, expectations or projections of BBVA or of its management on the date thereof, that refer to miscellaneous aspects, including projections about thefuture earnings of the business. The statements contained herein are based on our current projections, although the said earnings may be substantially modified in thefuture by certain risks, uncertainty and others relevant factors that may cause the results or final decisions to differ from such intentions, projections or estimates. Thesefactors include, without limitation, (1) the market situation, macroeconomic factors, regulatory, political or government guidelines, (2) domestic and international stockmarket movements, exchange rates and interest rates, (3) competitive pressures, (4) technological changes, (5) alterations in the financial situation, creditworthiness orsolvency of our customers, debtors or counterparts. These factors could condition and result in actual events differing from the information and intentions stated,projected or forecast in this document and other past or future documents. BBVA does not undertake to publicly revise the contents of this or any other document,either if the events are not exactly as described herein, or if such events lead to changes in the stated strategies and estimates.
This document may contain summarised information or information that has not been audited, and its recipients are invited to consult the documentation and publicinformation filed by BBVA with stock market supervisory bodies, in particular, the prospectuses and periodical information filed with the Spanish Securities ExchangeCommission (CNMV) and the Annual Report on form 20-F and information on form 6-K that are disclosed to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be prohibited, and recipients into whose possession this document comes shall be solely responsible forinforming themselves about, and observing any such restrictions. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing Restrictions.
3
Contents
1 Main transaction terms
Strategic rationale2
3 Financial impacts and structure
4 Conclusions
4
Main transaction terms
Transaction
• Acquisition of an additional 14.89% stake inGaranti from our partner Doğuş, increasing BBVA’sstake from 25.01% to 39.9% (Doğuş stake > 10%)
• BBVA’s + Doğuş’ joint stake remains below the50% trigger for a mandatory tender offer accordingto Turkish law
Governance
• BBVA gains board majority at Garanti:
BBVA to appoint 7 of the 10 Board members Limited number of reserved matters requiring Doğuş approval
• Doğuş remains a key Garanti shareholder (3-year lock-up period)
Transaction price and multiples
• Maximum: TL 8.90 / share, in line with market prices
• Total consideration of TL 5,566 Mn in cash (€1,988 Mn (1))
• Attractive transaction multiples: 9.3x PE 2015e(2); 1.4x PBV 3Q2014
• EPS Accretive(2)
• > €250Mn 2016e(2) incremental net attributable profit
Capital action • Estimated €2 Bn (3) Accelerated Bookbuilding Offer
(1) Exchange rate as of November 13, 2014: 2.7995 EURTRY. (2) Based on Bloomberg consensus as of November 17,2014. (3) BBVA’s Board of Directors has approved a maximumissuance of 310,481,867 shares
5
Contents
1 Main transaction terms
Strategic rationale2
3 Financial impacts and structure
4 Conclusions
6
Strategic Rationale
Very attractive market
Turkey: the European growth storyA market with critical mass, positive demographic dynamics
and strong growth potential
1
Garanti, the best franchise
Garanti, the best banking franchise in TurkeyMarket leader, solid fundamentals and focus on technology
Optimal Governance
BBVA increases its exposure and influence at Garanti while our local partner Doğuş remains a key shareholder
Deep knowledge of the franchise
The same business model and 4 years of active cooperationgaining knowledge of Garanti, enables BBVA to increase its value
generation proposition
2
3
4
7
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e
Eurozone Emerging Europe Turkey Mexico
Turkey: a sizeable market
Iraq invasion by the US World financial crisis Regional conflicts:Syria, Israel-Hamas, ISIS
123
7547
Mexico Turkey Spain
Population(Mn people, 2013)Source: Swiss Re research report (sigma no. 3/2014)
GDP growth (%)Source: BBVA Research, International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database for Emerging Europe
A market with critical massOne of the youngest
populations in Europe
Population pyramid(% of total population, 2010)Source: BBVA Research and UN
Averageage: 29
53% <30 years old
Outstanding performance during the crisis
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
0-410-1420-2430-3440-4450-5460-6470-7480-8490-94100+ Female Male
Very attractive market
1
8
One of the markets with the highest growth potential in the world …
The highest GDP growthpotential
GDP growth 2013-23e(Annual %)
Source: BBVA Research. (1) Without considering the impact of structural reforms (2) Except for Gross Public Debt, as a % of 2014e GDP.
… coupled with a well-capitalized and profitable banking system
1.9%2.2% 2.3%
2.9%
4.0%
4.6%
WesternEurope
G7 Spain Mexico World Turkey
Low leverage
3912 15
48 3716
98
171
76
Gross Public Debt Corporate SectorDebt
Households Debt
Turkey Mexico Spain
Debt(As a % of 1H14 GDP (2))
Very attractive market
1
(1)
9
Garanti enjoys a leadership position in this attractive market
Garanti in numbers (1)
Cust. Deposits 40.2 42.1
Net Income 1.3 1.1
Net Loans 46.9 51.8
Total Assets 77.8 84.8
RWAs 65.6 70.7
Efficiency (%) 45% 45%
Equity 8.4 9.4
2013 Sep.2014(€ Bn)
Exchange rate as of November 13, 2014: 2.7995 EURTRY (1) Source: Garanti. IFRS consolidated 2013 annual report and 3Q14 quarterly report. (2) Source: Bloomberg. Data as of November 17, 2014. (3) Source: Garanti, based on bank-only BRSA weekly data for commercial banks as of September 26, 2014. (4) Source: Garanti. Data as of 2Q14 among privantebanks, except for “# credit card customers”, as of September, 2014. (5) Including consumer credit cards, overdraft loans and other.
13.1 11.5
8.9 7.6 6.6
4.3 3.1 2.0 1.8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Market Cap (2)
(€ Bn)
20.3
14.3 13.9 13.6 12.3 11.1
Auto loans # creditcard
customers
Consumerloans
Mortgages Totalperforming
loans
Totaldeposits
#1 #1 #1 #1 #2 #2
Market Share (3) and Ranking (4)
(%, #)
(5)~ 1,000
Branches> 4,000
ATMs13 Mncustomers
>22,000Employees
Garanti: the best franchise
2
10
Garanti stands out among its peers
Better asset quality Stronger capital position
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)
ROE (%)
NPL ratio (%)
15.014.5
Garanti Peers' average
2.3
2.9
Garanti Peers' average
More profitableNIM (%)
13.712.8
Garanti Peers' average
4.1 4.0
Garanti Peers' average
Source: BRSA. Bank-only data for fair comparison with sector, as of September, 2014. Peers considered: Akbank, Halkbank, Is Bank, Vakifbank and Yapi Kredi.
Garanti: the best franchise
2
11
BBVA increases its influence, anticipating “Phase II” of the 2010
agreement
Doğuş remains a relevant shareholder
• The transaction anticipates (and eliminates) the 1% call option BBVA had starting March, 2016
• BBVA will appoint the majority of the Board:
7 members appointed by BBVA
2 members appointed by Doğuş
1 independent director
• Limited number of “Reserved Matters” requiring Doğuş approval
BBVA increases its influence on Garanti while Doğuş remains a key shareholder
Doğuş to remain as a relevant shareholder of Garanti (> 10.0%)
3 year lock-up period
“Qualified investor” under Turkish law
BBVA increases its economic exposure to Garanti, without launching a mandatory tender offer and increases its influence on the Board
Optimal Governance
3
12
SPAIN MEXICO TURKEY S.AMER. US
Privileged starting point to increase value generation after 4 years of active cooperation
Adding value to shareholders
The same business model approach
Universal banking
Shared know-how and common initiatives: a source of synergies
Garanti as a reference in Means of Payment
IT and digital transformation
Retail banking: BBVA’s experience in high growth emerging markets
CIB: Increasing Global Clients’ franchise
BBVA’s Consumer Finance successful model
Corporate Governance: Risk Management, ALM, Compliance, …
Leading franchises
Customer centric
Technology as a competitive advantage
Deep knowledge of the franchise
4
13
Contents
1 Executive summary
Strategic rationale2
3 Financial impacts and structure
4 Conclusions
14
Garanti improves BBVA’s long-term growth profile
2016e incremental contribution to BBVA (1),(2)
Exchange rate as of November 13, 2014: 2.7995 EURTRY. (1) Based on analysts’ estimates; (2) Estimated incremental contribution due to the additional 14.89% stake acquired: 75% dueto full consolidation of Total Assets and Gross Income; 14.89% in Net attributable profit as it excludes minorities.
Transaction EPS accretive
CAGR 2013 – 2016e (1)
Total Assets
Gross Income
Net Attributable Profit
€ 80 Bn
€ 4 Bn
>€ 250 Mn
2013 2016e
2013 2016e
2013 2016e
12%
10%
18%
15
Transaction with moderate impacts
-1.5 Bn P&L non cash one-off due to changes in the accounting method of the existing 25.01% stake (from equity method to full consolidation)
P&L impact
- 48 bps (- € 1.9 Bn) impact of the 14.89% stake acquisition
+58 bps(2) impact of the estimated €2 Bn ABO
Capital impact (1)
+ 10 bps estimated impact
on CET1 fully loaded
LOSSES WITH IMPACT ON CAPITAL: - €0.4 BnLOSSES WITH NO IMPACT
ON CAPITAL (mainly FX driven): - €1.1 Bn
REINFORCING OUR COMMITMENT TO MAINTAIN A CET1 FULLY LOADED RATIO AROUND 10%
Closing expected for 1H 2015, subject to regulatory approvals
(1) Impact on ratios as of September 2014; (2) Include the positive impact of increased thresholds according to Basel III methodology
16
Contents
1 Executive summary
Strategic rationale2
3 Financial impacts and structure
4 Conclusions
17
Closing remarks
BBVA gains board majority at Turkey’s largest bank by market cap, after increasing its stake in Garanti to 39.9%
Garanti boosts BBVA’s long-term growth profile
EPS accretive deal, closed at current market prices
Maintaining strong capital levels after the transaction
Privileged starting point to increase value generation after 4 years of active cooperation
18
November 19th, 2014
Investing for growth: Acquisition of an additional 14.89% stake in Garanti
Jaime Sáenz de Tejada, Chief Financial Officer
NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES, CANADA, AUSTRALIA OR JAPAN OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION IN WHICH THE DISTRIBUTION OR RELEASE WOULD BE UNLAWFUL.
19
Note: Data as of Sep.2014. Exchange rate as of November 13, 2014: 2.7995 EURTRY ; (1) Fair value has been calculated with the transaction price (Max 8.90 TL).
After this transaction, BBVA’s stake in Garanti will be accounted for using the full consolidation method (vs. the equity method currently used for the 25.01%)
Accounting standards require to mark to market (at fair value (1)) a stake, when a change in the accounting method occurs
The -€1.5 Bn P&L one – off responds to the mark to market (at fair value) of BBVA’s current 25.01% stake
• No cash outflow, just an accounting impact
• - €0.4 Bn impact on capital (as the rest of the P&L one-off, mainly FX driven, has already been charged against capital)
Change in accounting method
Appendix: P&L non cash one-off due to change in accounting method
€1.5 Bn P&L non cash one - off
TOTAL “FAIR VALUE(1)” (25.01% STAKE):
€3.3 Bn
BOOK VALUE(25.01% STAKE):
€4.0 Bn
GROSS LOSS: - €0.7 Bn
LOSSES WITH IMPACT ON CAPITAL: - €0.4 Bn
OTHER LOSSES WITH NO IMPACT
ON CAPITAL (mainly FX driven): - €1.1 Bn
TOTAL ONE-OFF IMPACT ON P&L: - €1.5 Bn
Taxes: + €0.3 Bn
20
Appendix: Garanti’s Balance Sheet
Source: Garanti. IFRS consolidated 2013 annual report and 3Q14 quarterly report (presented summarized). Exchange rate as of November 13, 2014: 2.7995 EURTRY.
Balance Sheet (€ Mn) 2013 Sep-14
Cash and balances with central banks 2,447 1,712Reserve deposits at central banks 6,561 7,282Securities 13,984 15,915Loans to banks 4,158 3,949Loans to customers (net) 46,907 51,815Tangbile assets 721 748Goodwill 12 12Other Assets 2,988 3,327
Total Assets 77,777 84,760
Deposits from banks and credit institutions 2,405 3,111Deposits from clients 40,172 42,086Wholesale funding 21,854 24,008Other liabilities 4,960 6,153Total Equity 8,385 9,403
Total liabilities and equity 77,777 84,760
21
Source: Garanti. IFRS consolidated 2013 annual report and 3Q14 quarterly report (Summary of Garanti’s P&L account following BBVA’s public reports models); Exchange rate as of November13, 2014: 2.7995 EURTRY
Appendix: Garanti’s Profit and Loss Account
Profit and Loss Account (€ Mn) 2013 Sep-14
Net interest income 2,543 2,134
Net fee and commission income 953 789
Other operating income (1) 414 220
Gross Income 3,909 3,143
Operating expenses (1,756) (1,415)
Operating Income 2,153 1,728
Provisions (543) (380)
Income Tax (326) (282)
Net income 1,284 1,066
(1) Other operating income: premium income from insurance business; net FX gains/(losses);
net trading gains/(losses); gains/(losses) on the sale of assets; other operating income