Post on 06-May-2015
description
MEPs per Political Group
274
194
85
58
57
3531
32
EPP
S&D
ALDE
Greens/EFA
ECR
GUE/NGL
EFD
NI
766
Source:European Parliament
Group Full name Political orientation Seats*
EPP European People’s Party
Christian Democrat Centre-right
274
S&D Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats
Social Democrat Centre-left
194
ALDE Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe
Liberal Centre
85
Greens/EFA Greens/European Free Alliance
Green 58
ECR European Conservative and Reformists
Conservative 57
GUE/NGL European United Left – Nordic Green Left
Left wing 35
EFD European Freedom and Democracy
EU-sceptic Right wing
31
NI Non-Aligned 32* 6 March 2014
2014 A year of change for the EU
Introduction • The European Parliament elections will take place in
May 2014 and will be followed by the appointment of a new European Commission, setting the tone and direction of EU policy-making for the next five years.
• The institutions will continue to drive policy and regulation at regional level for financial services, environment, energy, infrastructures, data protection, competition policy, agriculture, foreign policy and trade. As they establish the regulatory framework for the whole European region, their influence goes beyond European borders and will impact all EU trade and political partners.
• This brochure explains the procedural aspects of the European Parliament elections and how the next Commission is appointed, including a timeline with key events until the end of the year.
• Likely candidates for other top level European positions such as the President of the European Council are briefly presented.
A new political climate? • The key questions determining the cooperation and
political dynamic between the European institutions over the next years include continued fiscal consolidation policies; international relations and international trade; and whether more European integration or re-nationalisation is the way to move forward.
• In addition, the intensity of the debate will be fuelled by the large number of new Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from the far left and far right that will be focused on overhauling the status quo at all costs.
• Ultimately, the question of who sits behind the steering wheel will be determined by the nature of the relationship the next Commission President has with the new Parliament and the 28 Member States. Traditionally, the Commission has not succeeded in wrestling the political initiative from the national governments. A closer political alignment between the Parliament and the Commission would be necessary to reverse this long-term trend, which is unlikely given that neither the Christian Democrats nor the Social Democrats will emerge as clear winners of the elections.
Composition of the current European Parliament
The parliamentary groups explained
NI NI/Far right group (++)
GUE/NGL (+)
S&D (+)
ECR (-)
Greens/EFA (-)
ALDE (-)
EPP (--)
+
-EFD
Number of MEPs per Member State96
747373
5451
3226
212121212120
1817
131313
11111188
6666
Germany
France
Italy
United Kingdom
Spain
Poland
Romania
Netherlands
Belgium
Czech Republic
Greece
Hungary
Portugal
Sweden
Austria
Bulgaria
Denmark
Slovakia
Finland
Ireland
Croatia
Lithuania
Latvia
Slovenia
Estonia
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Malta
European Parliament electionsElection Process• 751 MEPs* to be elected in 28 Member States from 22-25 May• Number of seats allocated to Member States range from 96 (Germany)
to 6 (Estonia, Malta, Luxembourg, and Cyprus)• Most Member States, including the UK, apply proportional
representation systems, and some of them have set a 4-5% threshold for election
• Several Member States also divide their electorate into regional constituencies
Projections• No clear winner will emerge• The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-
left Social Democrats (S&D) in a neck and neck race to become the biggest political group
• Losses for liberals (ALDE) and Greens (Greens/EFA), gains for European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL)
• A new political group might emerge on the far right, uniting
nationalist parties like the French Front National, the Dutch Party of Freedom, and the Austrian Freedom Party
• Closer cooperation between EPP and S&D in informal “grand coalition” could lead to reduced “kingmaker” role for ALDE
• There is a chance that we will see up to 40% turnover of MEPs. This will have an impact on engaging with the Parliament as it always takes time for newcomers to establish themselves
European Commissioners standing for elections• For the moment, four Commissioners have officially announced that they
will stand for elections: Olli Rehn (Finland), Karel de Gucht (Belgium), Maroš Šefčovič (Slovakia), and Neven Mimica (Croatia)
• Two more are rumoured to consider joining the race: Viviane Reding (Luxembourg) and Janusz Lewandowski (Poland)
• They will have to take a leave of absence from 17 April until 22-25 May• Their portfolios will be taken over temporarily by one of their remaining
colleagues• If elected, a Commissioner would have to stand down from the Commission
in order to take his/her seat in the Parliament
The next European Parliament
Total 751*
* The number of MEPs will be reduced from the current 766 to 751
Potential new political group on the far right • Far right parties from several Member States are likely to
form a post-election alliance to leverage their increased size. The group could include up to 45 MEPs
• The initiative is driven primarily by Marine Le Pen (Front National, France), Geert Wilders (Partij voor de Vrijheid, The Netherlands) and Hans-Christian Strache (Freiheitliche Partei Österreich, Austria)
• Other far right parties expected to join such an alliance include the Belgian Vlaams Belang, Italian Lega Nord and Swedish Sverigedemokraterna
• 25 MEPs from at least 7 Member States are necessary to form a political group in the European Parliament
Formation of a new Commission• Member States propose one Commissioner each• The Commission President assigns policy portfolios to the
nominees (although this is negotiated with Member States)• After approval of the new College by the Member States, the
appropriate Parliament Committees hold hearings with the future Commissioners
• The Parliament has to give its consent to the entire Commission – it cannot “cherry pick” individual Commissioners. However, in
the past MEPs have used this power to demand the replacement of individual candidates found lacking in expertise or ethics by threatening to reject the whole Commission if individuals are not replaced
• Once the European Parliament has approved the new Commission, the European Council officially appoints it
• Current Commission’s term ends on 31 October 2014 (extendable)
Appointment of the Commission President• Nominated by the European Council, which brings together the
Heads of State or Government of the EU’s 28 Member States• Needs the support of at least 376 MEPs to have the European
Parliament’s confirmation• Lisbon Treaty provisions say that the European Council has to “take
into account” the results of the elections when nominating a candidate to the European Parliament
• The Parliament and Europe-wide political parties interpreted this as
a call to personalize the election process and nominated their own main candidates for the Commission Presidency
• Member States intend to retain control of the nomination process• A political deadlock between Parliament and Member States over
who will become the next Commission President might lead to an extended term of the current Commission
Potential compromise candidates• Viable compromise candidates might emerge at a later stage in the negotiation process between Parliament and Member States
The next European Commission
Main candidates for Commission President• A televised debate between the nominated main candidates is foreseen for 15 May, organised by the European Broadcasting Union
Christine LagardeFrance, EPPIMF Managing Director
Jyrki KatainenFinland, EPPPrime Minister
Enda KennyIreland, EPPPrime Minister
Helle Thorning-SchmidtDenmark, S&DPrime Minister
Enrico LettaItaly, S&DFormer Prime Minister
Pascal LamyFrance, S&DFormer WTO Director-General
Martin SchulzGermany, S&DPresident of the European Parliament
Guy VerhofstadtBelgium, ALDEPresident ALDE Group
Jean-Claude JunckerLuxembourg, EPPFormer Prime Minister
Ska KellerGermany, Greens/EFAMEP
José BovéFrance, Greens/EFAMEP
Alexis TsiprasGreece, GUE/NGLGreek MP
1
2
High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security
President of the European Council
(Possible) Permanent President of the Eurogroup
Contact Brunswick Brussels
CurrentlyCatherine AshtonUK, S&D
Herman Van RompuyBelgium, EPP
Frans TimmermansThe Netherlands, S&DForeign Minister
Radoslaw SikorskiPoland, EPPForeign Minister
Carl BildtSweden, ALDEForeign Minister
Anders Fogh RasmussenDenmark, ALDENATO Secretary General
Jean-Claude JunckerBelgium, EPPFormer Prime Minister
Fredrik ReinfeldtSweden, EPPPrime Minister
Anders Fogh RasmussenDenmark, ALDENATO Secretary General
Dalia Grybauskaitė Lithuania, EPPPresident
Potential Candidates
Candidates for other high level positions to be filled in 2014
General notes• Member States try to achieve a balanced representation between
political orientation, gender, and geographical provenance when filling such positions
• It is considered an unwritten rule that at least some high level positions will go to a woman and to politicians from the newer Member States in Central and Eastern Europe
Address27 Avenue Des Arts1040 BrusselsBelgium
Tel.+32 2 235 6510
Fax+32 2 235 6522
Emailbrusselsoffice@brunswickgroup.com
Jeroen DijsselbloemThe Netherlands, S&D
Pierre MoscoviciFrance, S&DMinister of Finance
President of the European Parliament
Martin SchulzGermany, S&D
Viviane RedingLuxembourg, EPPEuropean Commissioner
Olli RehnFinland, ALDEEuropean Commissioner
NATO Secretary General
Anders Fogh RasmussenDenmark, ALDE
Liam FoxUK, ECRFormer Secretary of State for Defence
Thomas de MaizièreGermany, EPPFederal Minister of the Interior
Pieter de CremBelgium, EPPMinister of Defence
Franco FrattiniItaly, EPPFormer Minister of Foreign Affairs
Timeline until the end of 2014
April May June July August September October November December
14-17/4Last Plenary
15/5Televised debate of main candidates
14-17/7EP vote on Commission President (expected)
30/11End of Van Rompuy’s term as European Council President
26-27/6European Council Summit – Nomination of new Commission President
27/5EP Post-Electoral Meeting
July-AugustNomination of new College of Commissioners
September-October EP hearings with proposed Commissioners
31/10End of term for Barroso Commission (extendable)
European Parliament
European Council
European Commission
22-25/5 European Elections
27/5European Council Post-Electoral Meeting