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2013 wage trends

Labor Market and Performance Analysis Economic Symposium October 30, 2014 Olympia, WA Scott Bailey and Anneliese Vance-Sherman Labor Market and Performance Analysis

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Outline of presentation

1. Wage trends in Washington state 2. Minimum wage in Washington state

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Wage trends in Washington state

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Median hourly wage

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

$21

$22

$23

$24

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Total nonfarm employment during recession and recovery

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

104%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

USA Washington

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Total nonfarm employment vs. FTE employment

84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

100%102%

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2013Q1

2013Q3

FTE Nonfarm

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Employment by hourly wage, 2013

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

<$12 $12 -$18

$18 -$24

$24 -$30

$30 -$36

$36 -$42

$42 -$48

$48 -$54

$54+

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Employment by hourly wage, 2007 to 2013

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

<$12 $12 -$18

$18 -$24

$24 -$30

$30 -$36

$36 -$42

$42 -$48

$48 -$54

$54+

2007 2013

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Net employment change by hourly wage, 2007 to 2013

-30,000-20,000-10,000

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

<$12 $12 -$18

$18 -$24

$24 -$30

$30 -$36

$36 -$42

$42 -$48

$48 -$54

$54+

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Job loss and recovery by wage range, 2007 to 2013

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

<$12 $12 -$18

$18 -$24

$24 -$30

$30 -$36

$36 -$42

$42 -$48

$48 -$54

$54+

peak-to-trough trough-to-present

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Job loss and recovery by wage range, 2007 to 2013

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

<$12 $12 -$18

$18 -$24

$24 -$30

$30 -$36

$36 -$42

$42 -$48

$48 -$54

$54+

peak-to-trough trough-to-present

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Median and decile wages, 2013

$22.09 $9.50 $11.70 $14.30 $17.15 $20.33 $24.21 $29.41

$36.85 $47.75

$100.33

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Median 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 100th

Average wage by percentile, Washington state, 2013

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Change by decile, 2007 to 2013

$0.62 $0.22 $0.11 $0.17 $0.27 $0.49 $0.87 $1.44 $2.37

$3.72

$10.89

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

Median 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 100th

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Change by decile, 2007 to 2013

2.9% 2.4%

1.0% 1.2% 1.6% 2.5%

3.7%

5.1%

6.9%

8.4%

12.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Median 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 100th

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Change in hourly wage, 2003 to 2013

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

Median 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 100th

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Change in hourly wage, 1990 to 2013

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

Median 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 100th

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Median hourly wage

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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…with the average hourly wage…

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Infla

tion-

adju

sted

hou

rly w

age

Average hourly wageMedian hourly wage

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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…and the national average for nonsupervisory workers

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Infla

tion-

adju

sted

hou

rly w

age

Average hourly wageMedian hourly wageU.S. average

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Change in employment by hourly wage and by industry, 2007 to 2013

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

-60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000Agriculture

ConstructionAerospaceOther Mfg

Electronic RetailNon-Electronic

SoftwareOther Information

Banking/Ins./REComputer Systems Design

Other Prof. Serv.Temp Agencies

Other Bus. Serv.Health Care

Food ServicesState Govt.

K-12 EdOther Local Govt.

All Other

<$36/hour$36/hour+

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Individual workers, 2008 to 2013

Of the 1,150,825 who worked 1,560 hours or more in both 2008 and 2013:

Median increase of $1.77 in real hourly wages 32 percent had a drop in real

hourly wages

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$0.00$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50$5.00

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013Five year span endpoint

Median change in hourly wage, five-year spans

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013Five year span endpoint

Percent of workers with a decline in wages over a five-year span

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013Five year span endpoint

All Workers <$16 in Base Year >$29.99 in Base Year

Median change in hourly wage, five-year spans, low-wage vs. high-wage workers

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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11%

16%

16%

13% 9%

7%

28%

<$10

$10 to $11

$11 to $12

$12 to $13

$13 to $14

$14 to $15

>$15

If you earned less than $12 in 2008, then in 2013, you earned…

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Minimum wage in Washington

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Topic Heading (optional) Minimum wage jobs

• $9.19 in 2013 • $9.32 in 2014 • $9.47 in 2015 • Highest state in the country • Oregon second at $9.10 in 2014 • San Francisco: $10.74 • Federal: $7.25

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Minimum wage over time

$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00$9.00

$10.00

1962 1974 1986 1998 2010

U.S. UnadjustedState Unadjusted

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Minimum wage over time

$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00$9.00

$10.00

1962 1974 1986 1998 2010

U.S. Inflation-AdjustedState Inflation-Adjusted

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Topic Heading (optional) Minimum wage jobs in this analysis

• $9.19 plus or minus 2 percent • $9.01 to $9.37

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Number of jobs that pay the minimum

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

UnadjustedSeasonally-Adjusted

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Percent of jobs that pay the minimum

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Unadjusted

Seasonally-Adjusted

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Minimum wage jobs by industry

Food Services

Accommodations

Retail Trade

Agriculture

Health/Social Assistance

Business Services

Manufacturing

All Other

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Minimum wage jobs by industry

Full Service

Limited Service

Other FS Accommodations

Retail Trade

Agriculture

Health/Social Assistance

Business Services

Manufacturing

All Other

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Minimum wage by region

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Total

Metropolitan Division

Metro Area

Micropolitan Area

Rural Counties

West of Cascades

East of Cascades

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Minimum wage by county

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%San Juan

KingGarfield

SnohomishFerryState

JeffersonWahkiakum

ColumbiaWhatcomThurston

PierceWhitman

Walla WallaSpokane

ClarkMasonKitsap

KlickitatClallamLincoln

StevensIsland

Pend OreilleChelanCowlitzPacificSkagit

BentonGrays Harbor

LewisAsotinKittitas

SkamaniaDouglasFranklin

GrantYakimaAdams

Okanogan

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Minimum wage by county

5.6% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4%

Douglas

Franklin

Grant

Yakima

Adams

Okanogan

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Topic Heading (optional) Two big questions:

• What do we know about the increase in the number of minimum-wage jobs? • Let’s compare 2004 and 2013

• Has the increase (or at least, lack of decline) in the minimum wage been felt further up the wage ladder? • Let’s look at the wage trends for higher-

than minimum low-wage jobs

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Topic Heading (optional) Increase in minimum-wage jobs

• 2004: 47,700 jobs, 2.3 percent • 2013: 67,100 jobs, 2.9 percent • Why?

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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6,114

2,499 19,400

Growth

Faster growth of high-minimum industries

Increase in percent of jobsthat were minimum-wage

Increase in minimum-wage jobs

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Change in minimum wage due to internal factors, selected industries, 2004-2013

-3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Fruit Tree OrchardsManufacturing

Grocery StoresGas Stations

Other Retail TradeTransportation & Warehousing

Temporary Employment AgenciesOther Business Services

Health CareDay Care

Art, Entertainment & RecreationAccommodations

Limited Service RestaurantsAll Other Services

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Change in minimum wage by region, 2004 to 2013

-0.8% -0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0%

Total

Metropolitan Division

Metro Area

Micropolitan Area

Rural Counties

West of Cascades

East of Cascades

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Has the minimum wage pushed wages up?

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Minimum Wage Lowest 10% Next 10% Lowest 20%

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Ratio of percentile wages to minimum wage

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Lowest Decile Lowest Quintile Second Decile

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Minimum wage at $11, $13 or $15?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%State

AgricultureConstruction

ManufacturingWholesale

RetailTransportation

InformationFinance

Real EstateProfessional

Corporate OfficesBusiness ServicesPrivate Education

Health CareArts/Entertainment

Food & LodgingPerosnal Services

State GovtLocal Govt

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Minimum wage at $11, $13 or $15?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%San Juan

KingGarfield

SnohomishFerryState

JeffersonWahkiakum

ColumbiaWhatcomThurston

PierceWhitman

Walla WallaSpokane

ClarkMasonKitsap

KlickitatClallamLincoln

StevensIsland

Pend OreilleChelanCowlitzPacificSkagit

BentonGrays Harbor

LewisAsotinKittitas

SkamaniaDouglasFranklin

GrantYakimaAdams

Okanogan

Source: Employment Security Department /LMPA

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Contact Info

scott.bailey@esd.wa.gov 360-735-4995

avancesherman@esd.wa.gov 425-258-6315