2013 Gartner PPM & IT Governance Summit

A Whole New Dimension of PPM Analytics

May 2013National Harbor, MD

cAdvanced Analytics: Predictive, Collaborative and Pervasive

16 February 2012Analysts: Rita L. Sallam and David W. Cearley

“Next generation analytics will expand beyond measuring and describing the past to predicting what is likely to happen, and optimizing what should happen, based on an increasingly varied

set of data sources and types.”

May 2013Baltimore, MD

cAdvanced Analytics: Predictive, Collaborative and Pervasive

16 February 2012Analysts: Rita L. Sallam and David W. Cearley

“Incorporating consumer interaction paradigms that make advanced analytic applications mobile, social and collaborative will empower a broader set of users — giving them more high-value insight for decision making at the time and place of every business process action.”

May 2013Baltimore, MD

cAdvanced Analytics: Predictive, Collaborative and Pervasive

16 February 2012Analysts: Rita L. Sallam and David W. Cearley

“Organizations will need to put in place new processes and technologies to capitalize on this opportunity. A lack of skills will be the biggest challenge.”

Our Challenge

Product Focus 1 – False Positives

Resource Capacity Planning / Forecasting / Simplified What-If Change from reactive to proactive thinking. Become nimble. Answer questions – quickly. Make sense out of resource-allocation chaos. Simulate changes to project timing and resource allocation. Empower PMOs to opportunistically and dynamically shift to optimize

resource allocation. Eliminate false positives.

Product Focus 2 – False Negatives

Project Portfolio Management / Project Valuation / Opportunity Engineering

Introduce real-options thinking and entrepreneurial management into project valuation and selection.

Avoid the value destroying effects of NPV-based thinking. Engineer-away risk and spur innovation in your organization. Eliminate false negatives.

Resource Forecasting

Resource Forecasting with Tempus

Today, decision makers lack simplified tools to conduct powerful what-if analysis.

Our customers are often handed a set of projects, each with a varying degree of resource allocation.

When decision makers need to understand the ability or inability to deliver, the challenge is typically resource-driven.

Resource Forecasting with Tempus allows decision makers to look over-the-horizon and not only understand the state of current resource allocation but also simulate changes to the project portfolio to identify the net impact on the resource profile of the organization.

Resource Forecasting with Tempus

With today’s tools, in order for a decision maker to perform a what-if with regards to project timing, Excel, data-dumps, pivot-tables, etc. are employed.

Only a limited, pre-defined, number of scenarios are evaluated.

The scenarios are then handed off to an analyst or team of analysts to crunch the numbers requiring days or weeks of effort.

Only the scenarios in the original set are considered.

The team meets and reviews the limited scenarios. And repeat…

Resource Forecasting with Tempus allows decision makers to consider an unbounded set of scenarios independent of working groups, analysts or consultants. Individuals are empowered to proactively identify resourcing opportunities.

Resource Mode

Simulate Changes

View Net Effects

Drill Down to Task Level

View Net Effects & Simulate Changes

View Net Effects & Simulate Changes

View Net Effects & Simulate Changes

View Net Effects & Simulate Changes

Valuation Mode

Valuation Mode

Project Valuation

Project Valuation

Project Valuation with Tempus

For years and even today, organizations rely on NPV for project selection.

This approach assumes we either do or do not do a project.

Every project is viewed and priced as a bond.

This is the NPV view of a product valuation discounted returns from production & sales minus the investment in the project

Project Valuation

Project Valuation with Tempus

Some organizations expand on their NPV-type thinking by introducing Monte Carlo-based simulation.

The problem remains. A project is either selected or deselected based on its value at completion.

If we introduce uncertainty to the model we get a range of values for the costs, revenues and profits. To compensate the common practice increase the discount rate or haircut revenue estimates.

The result? Lower NPV that leads to good projects being dismissed because they have low or negative value. This leads to false negatives that destroy growth.

Project Valuation

Project Valuation with Tempus

Tempus introduces the concept of optionality and entrepreneurial management.

Value may lie at exit opportunities located along the project’s lifecycle.

Each of these contingencies create value and should be considered. Even early exits create value because the resources can be redirected elsewhere and put to better use.

NPV lacks the flexibility needed for our times to capture the contingent value found in projects.

Project Valuation

Project Valuation with Tempus

Tempus introduces the concept of optionality and entrepreneurial management.

Value may lie at exit opportunities located along the project’s lifecycle.

Each of these contingencies create value and should be considered. Even early exits create value because the resources can be redirected elsewhere and put to better use.

NPV lacks the flexibility needed for our times to capture the contingent value found in projects.

Example — Opportunity Engineering

A company has developed a new IT concept that will allow it to create a financial planning tool that it thinks will allow it to enter a new market.

If they decide to go forward the cost to develop the product and enter the market is $200.

There is a 5% chance that the product will gain rapid acceptance. The expected present value (PV) is $1400 if the acceptance is rapid, $0 if it is slow (dicey competitors, choosy customers).

Do you think that they should do it?

Project Valuation

Project Valuation with Tempus

Tempus introduces the concept of optionality and entrepreneurial management.

Value may lie at exit opportunities located along the project’s lifecycle.

Each of these contingencies create value and should be considered. Even early exits create value because the resources can be redirected elsewhere and put to better use.

NPV lacks the flexibility needed for our times to capture the contingent value found in projects.

Example — Two Ways of Thinking

Traditional Thinking:

NPV = Expected PV Revenues – Total PV Costs = (0.05 x $1400) + (0.95 x $0) -$200 = $70 - $200 = -$130

Project Valuation

Project Valuation with Tempus

Tempus introduces the concept of optionality and entrepreneurial management.

Value may lie at exit opportunities located along the project’s lifecycle.

Each of these contingencies create value and should be considered. Even early exits create value because the resources can be redirected elsewhere and put to better use.

NPV lacks the flexibility needed for our times to capture the contingent value found in projects.

Example — Two Ways of Thinking

Traditional Thinking:

NPV = Expected PV Revenues – Total PV Costs = (0.05 x $1400) + (0.95 x $0) -$200 = $70 - $200 = -$130

Opportunistic Thinking:

What if they can test market the product for $40 to remove much of the uncertainty surrounding the product?

Project Valuation

Project Valuation with Tempus

Tempus introduces the concept of optionality and entrepreneurial management.

Value may lie at exit opportunities located along the project’s lifecycle.

Each of these contingencies create value and should be considered. Even early exits create value because the resources can be redirected elsewhere and put to better use.

NPV lacks the flexibility needed for our times to capture the contingent value found in projects.

Example — Two Ways of Thinking

Traditional Thinking:

NPV = Expected PV Revenues – Total PV Costs = (0.05 x $1400) + (0.95 x $0) -$200 = $70 - $200 = -$130

Opportunistic Thinking:

What if they can test market the product for $40 to remove much of the uncertainty surrounding the product?

If we value as we would run it, we get a very different answer: = -$40 + 0.05 (-$200 + $1400 ) + 0.95 x (0+0) = -$40 + $60 = $20

Plan Future Projects

View Valuation Report

Optimize Valuation

Contact Information

ProSymmetry, LLCSean Pales, Managing Director

Booth 310

spales@prosymmetry.com

216.337.9165

2013 Gartner PPM & IT Governance Summit

A Whole New Dimension of PPM Analytics

May 2013National Harbor, MD