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MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD SHORT 2 1.4420 1.3660/1.3410 (Entered on 06/07/2011) 1.4305
GBP/USD Await fresh signal, with a mild bearish bias.
USD/JPY Await fresh signal.
USD/CHF Sell limit 3 0.8330 0.8200/0.8080/0.7800 0.8400
USD/CAD Await trade setup (neutral).
AUD/USD Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY SHORT 3 128.00 127.00/124.65/122.36 (Entered on 14/07/2011) 129.00
EUR/JPY SHORT 1 117.70 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 114.70
EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8900 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 0.9005
EUR/CHF SHORT 1 1.1805 1.1000 (Entered on 11/07/2011) 1.1805
GOLD Await fresh signal.
SILVER Await fresh signal.
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 15 July, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk‐free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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Region near old triangular support tested as resistance.
EUR/USD resumed its bearish activity breaking out of the triangular
consolidation pattern earlier in the week. This has since been followed by
a re-test of triangular support as resistance. Back over 1.4376 will warn of
a stronger recovery.
Our short position favours sustained weakness to potentially unlock an
accelerated impulsive (wave 3) into 1.3670 (61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 uptrend).Only a sustained close above 1.4653 and most importantly 1.4711/30 will
lead us to re-evaluate.
Inversely, the US dollar index has broken above 76.36 (23rd May high),
possibly confirming a multi-month w-shaped base pattern for an extension
into 77.01 and 78.03 (50%/61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 Decline). Back under 74.00
will begin to weaken the outlook again.
SPECIAL REPORT : EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.
Please select link: REPORT VIDEO
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 2 at 1.4420, Objs: 1.3660/1.3410, Stop: 1.4305
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Sharp reversal re-tests triangular support as resistance.
GBP/USD Broke briefly under the 200 day moving average. However, a
sharp bout of strength has seen a return to the old triangular support,
potentially re-testing it as resistance.
Although we remain mildly bearish this return over the 200 day moving
average returns us to the sidelines awaiting the evolution of structure that
can assist us in our directional view.
We also note that the 50 week moving average continues to contain the
price on the downside, so await resolution there too.
A reasonable downside target lies at 1.5345.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal with a mild bearish bias.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Another failed breakout.
USD/JPY has suffered yet another failed breakout above our secondtrigger point at 81.40 (multi-week triangle pattern). We remain bullish in
the medium to long-term, but are switching to a more cautious footing,
watching for a sustained resumption of the potentially new structural bull-
cycle. We note that this cycle would be negated on a push under 76.25.
To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close above
strategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post
Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).
The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto
88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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A further test of wedge support is now favoured.
USD/CHF continues to trade within the confines of a daily/weekly wedge,after failing to gain momentum last week following the minor break over
wedge resistance.
Shorter-term structure suggests scope for a re-test of the channel support
which has seen one test already. In fact, a break under this support is
eventually sought ahead of a potential recovery.
With this in mind we look for a rise towards the 0.8330 region where a
lower high may potentially form.
We look for a break back over 0.8551 before considering longs.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8330, Objs: 0.8200/0.8080/0.7800, Stop: 0.8400
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHFUSD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Resumes downtrend.
USD/CAD unwound from oversold conditions, amidst key support near0.9550. Corrective activity was originally triggered after the rate’s
expanding pattern initially failed at key resistance into 0.9906-0.9915
(38.2% Fib-Sept 2010 decline & 200 DMA).
Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective has been neutralised by a
failed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern.
Indeed, the bulls must recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swing high/38.2%
Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March high) and
1.0000 (parity level). In the meantime, a resumption of the larger
downtrend appears possible.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting trade setup (Neutral).
USD/CAD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Reactive bounce still weighed by exhaustion signal.
AUD/USD’s reactive bounce from key support at 1.0443 (TDST line), is stillweighed down by a DeMark™ exhaustion signal last seen at the May peak.
Keep alert to the fact that our DeMark™ indicator has also flagged
exhaustion sell signals across both weekly and daily timeframes. Meantime,
our downside trigger level remains at 1.0443 (TDST line), to unlock
extended downside scope into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205 and 0.9990.
Back over 1.1012 will negate our bearish bias.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar,
after its recovery failed into key resistance at 1.3169 (61.8% Fib). The pair
is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath this
level.
The Aussie dollar has also weakend against the Japanese yen, after
triggering a daily reversal pattern. The bearish signal is now pushing back
lower into the multi-week triangle pattern. We continue to favour a
potential downside breakout, which would signal further risk aversion in
the financial community.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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A return towards channnel support remains favoured.
GBP/JPY has tested below the 61.8% retrace of the 122.36-140.03 riseseen earlier in the year and broken clearly under it.
This now alters the near-term structure in favour of a relapse towards
122.36, thus also greatly weakening the longer-term recovery structure
that we had previously expected.
Focus remains on the daily bear channel that has been developing for the
last three months.
A lower high is now in place at 130.85 for a continuation of near-term
weakness.
Although the area around the daily channel support has been tested, we
continue to favour a return to this region and potentially a clear break
under this support ahead of a potential recovery.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 3 at 128.00, Objs: 127.00/124.65/122.36, Stop: 129.00
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Further weakness anticipated while below 113.50.
Stop lowered again to 114.70. EUR/JPY has likely completed an extended recovery from the 2010 low at
105.44 after reaching 123.33 and then failing to hold over 116.00.
Recent trade has seen a break under the platform near 113.42/50, which
also constitutes a push under the 200 day moving average.
The structure present since 117.90 now warns of the potential for a shallow
retrace and a further extension lower back towards 105.44. This ishowever dependent on the perception of risk as partially dictated by
Eurozone periphery spreads versus bunds.
We also note that the recent sharp fall has also pushed under the 50 week
moving average. This turns the longer-term outlook negative again.
Although further losses are anticipated we are adjusting our stop on our
final short unit at 114.70 to protect a portion of the profit already
generated.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 114.70.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/JPY
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Relapse to the 200 day moving average now favoured.
EUR/GBP has suffered in the same manner as other EUR crosses given thestresses experienced in the periphery bond markets.
With this in mind, the break higher that occurred at the beginning of the
month to 0.9084 may mark the end of the recovery structure seen since
0.8285, with a return to the 200 day moving average now favoured. This
currently lies near 0.8665.
It is thus our strategy to wait for a bounce higher to evolve for the creationof a lower high and the resumption of weakness.
A break under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-term
bullish structure.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8900, Objs: 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285, Stop: 0.9005. EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBPEUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Under 1.1806 negates multiple bullish signals.
EUR/CHF had exhibited a number of bullish reversal signals in differenttimeframes. All of these were negated with the push under 1.1806.
Given the continued uncertainty regarding periphery spreads versus
bunds, we continue to view the downside as being vulnerable.
With this in mind we next target the 1.1000 region.
The close link between movements in EUR/CHF and periphery spreads
versus bunds makes this pair a prime candidate for sharp moves as newinformation regarding events in the periphery becomes available.
A possible fallling wedge is developing in the hourly timeframe.
Completion of this ultimately bullish structure would require a break lower,
or else a sustained push back over 1.1722 to negate our bearish bias.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Short 1 at 1.1805, Obj: 1.1000, Stop: 1.1805.
EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Prints fresh highs.
This week’s break over 1577.57 now suggests a resumption of the largerrising trend is now in force, negating our prior bearish bias for the near-
term.
Infact, while the 200 day moving average remains below the price action
the trend is likely to be biased to the upside.
The next immediate target lies at 1600.00 from where a pullback of sorts
may materialise.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
GOLD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Gold daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Pierces the 38.8000 ceiling.
Silver has pierced through the 38.8000 ceiling that we have been referringto in recent reports. This now warns of a larger corrective phase, with
scope for a further rise to potentially re-test the 45.0000 region.
Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and would
still mean that silver’s long-term uptrend remains intact.
We also continue to watch silver’s relative performance against gold, which
is currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.
We next target 39.4825 (11th May high), ahead of 40.0000 (old
psychological level).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
SILVER
Spot Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Spot Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
LEGAL
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MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have
or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or
distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or
recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by
MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and
are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no
representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and
opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In
particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other
advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made
solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a
qualified expert before making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be
reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,
whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and
complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or
recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by
D I S
C L A
I M E R
LEGALTERMS
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www.migbank.comHoward FriendChief Market Strategisth.friend@migbank.com
Bjioy KarTechnical Strategistb.kar@migbank.com
14, rte des Gouttes d’OrCH-2008 NeuchâtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00
MIG BANK info@migbank.comwww.migbank.com
Ron WilliamTechnical Strategistr.william@migbank.com
CONTACT