Post on 21-Sep-2014
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A NEWLEADERSHIP
ETHOS
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
The Ability to Predict
The average age of a Fortune-500 company is 15 years
About half of the world’s mergers and acquisitions fail
Leaders stay on at the demise of their organization and nation
In our world of cycles, we try building organizations that “last”
We repeatedly buy millions of books from guru’s that get it wrong
We really believe that our social world differs from our physical world
IS SOCIETY RUNNING INTO A WALLOR AT THE BRINK OF A MAJOR
TRANSFORMATION?
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
The next wave in how society optimizes its ability to minimize inequalities...
Human inequalities
Market inequalities
Temperature inequalities
Energy inequalities
Any inequalities
A NEW LEADERSHIP ETHOS
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
So, before strategizing about our world, let’s explore our self first
BE YOUR OWN ANCHOR OF EXPLANATION
Most of us see ourselves at the center of our world map…
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Watch these 4 situations
Finding Platformfor Growth
Idea
Level Playing Field
...virtual wall
Identifies a new concept
Driven by conviction
Knocks on many doors for funding
Persistently amends the concept
Until securing funds and
acceptance
A
LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Finding Platformfor Growth
Rising Growth
Resonating with Environment
Nurture NichesIdea
...virtual wall
Turns concept into product
Driven by vision and passion
Builds a basic organization
Cozies up to clients, identifies niches
Proves the business by growth
B
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Watch these 4 situations
LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT
Finding Platformfor Growth
Rising Growth
Resonating with Environment
Nurture NichesIdea
RepeatingProven Success
ProcessS
table Grow
th
...virtual wall
Repeats early proven success
Driven by cost, volume, and quality
Fosters process, flows, and culture
Fans out responsibilities to specialists
Realizes substantial stable growth
C
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Watch these 4 situations
LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT
Finding Platformfor Growth
Rising Growth
Resonating with Environment
Nurture NichesIdea
RepeatingProven Success
ProcessS
table Grow
th
CreatingLevel Playing Field
Declining Growth
Distancing
...virtual wall
Confronts complacency
Distances from established
procedures
Simplifies and purifies organization
Brings in outside standards of success
Achieves profitability but not growth
D
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Watch these 4 situations
LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT
Idea
Finding Platformfor Growth
CreatingLevel Playing Field
Rising Growth
Resonating with Environment
Nurture Niches
RepeatingProven Success
ProcessS
table Grow
th
Declining Growth
Unc
erta
in G
row
th
Distancing
...virtual wall
Introduces a new thinking
Driven by conviction
Aims to re-invent organization/society
May have to make several attempts
Identifies a new platform for growth
A
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Watch these 4 situations
LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT
CreatingLevel Playing Field
Finding Platformfor Growth
Rising Growth
Resonating with Environment
Nurture NichesIdea
RepeatingProven Success
ProcessS
table Grow
th
Declining Growth
DistancingUnc
erta
in G
row
th
In which state do you feel most at ease?
B
D C
A
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
LEADER IN HIS/HER ENVIRONMENT
BuilderSearches for niches
Concerned with external inequalities
Leads by vision and passion
Builds individual and collective loyalty
Grower Reproduces, repeats success
Concerned with internal inequalities
Introduces specialists and processes
Leads by culture, sets boundaries
ConfronterSeeks turnaround
Confronts established thinking
Unlocks and opens organization
Shakes up and purifies
TransformerSearches for meaning
Concerned with internal potential
Brings innovators together
Searches for platform for growth
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth Discover/
InnovateNurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Organizational State Leadership Archetype
B
D C
A
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
LET’S MAKE UP THE BALANCE
Leaders caught in web of neural networks…Change possible…
Let us introduce ourselves
BuilderSearches for niches
Concerned with external inequalities
Leads by vision and passion
Builds individual and collective loyalty
Grower Reproduces, repeats success
Concerned with internal inequalities
Leads by culture, sets boundaries
Introduces specialists and processes
ConfronterSeeks turnaround
Confronts established thinking
Unlocks and opens organization
Shakes up and purifies
TransformerSearches for meaning
Concerned with internal potential
Brings innovators together
Searches for platform for growth
B
D C
A
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
DEEPENING THE UNDERSTANDING OF PEERS AND ORGANIZATION
Relating to your world is so much more meaningful
You know who you are You know how you relate to your organization You know how to relate to your peers (and so do your peers) You know how future success can be achieved You know when (and when not) to contribute or dominate You know how to identify your ideal role model
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
FINDINGS
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
EXAMPLES
In the following examples, an evolving organization or society often
forces leaders to function in a role that may not be their natural one.
This leaves a largely unused opportunity to identify leaders whose natural role fits the needs
of an evolving organization or society.
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Confronter
Tra
ns
form
er
Gro
wer
Builder
Muhammad
Ab
û B
akr
ISLAM about 600 CE
CHRISTIANITY about 0 CE Paul
John the Baptist
Jesu
s o
f N
azar
eth
BUDDHISM about 600 BCE
Gau
tam
a B
ud
dh
a
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
HISTORICAL EXAMPLES
CORPORATE EXAMPLES
APPLE COMPUTERS Steve Jobs
Jo
hn
Scu
lley
Michael Spindler
Gil
Am
elio
MARKS & SPENCER
Lu
c V
an
de
Ve
lde
Stuart Rose
GENERAL ELECTRIC
Ja
ck W
elc
h
Jeffrey Immelt
Breakpoint
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Confronter
Tra
ns
form
er
Gro
wer
Builder
† ABN AMRO BANK
Rijkman Groenink
Ja
n K
alff
Ken
Ols
en
Bob Palmer
† DIGITAL EQUIPMENT Ken Olsen – Gordon Bell
GE hasmade abreak withits promote-from-withintradition -
the changesare tough on the manywho aren’t‘dreamertypes’
Business WeekMay 28, 2005
20032007
200320052007
GE sells Chemical Division to SABIC
May, 2007
GE wants to sell Appliance Division
May, 2008
20082009
GE loses AAA-rating and $264 billion in value - did not groom super-managers after all
ReutersMarch, 2009
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Thomas Jefferson
James Buchanan
Ab
rah
am L
inc
oln
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Confronter
Tra
ns
form
er
Gro
wer
Builder
George Washington
Jo
hn
Ad
ams
Ja
me
s M
ad
iso
n
Jo
hn
Ken
ne
dy
Dwight Eisenhower
Jimmy Carter
George W Bush
Rich
ard
Nix
on
– G
era
ld F
ord
Bill C
linto
n
Lyndon B Johnson
George H W Bush
Ro
na
ld R
ea
ga
n
Fran
klin
Ro
os
ev
elt –
Ha
rry Tru
ma
n
Andrew Johnson
1857 – 1869
19
33 –
Breakpoint
1789 – 1817
20
09 P
res
ide
nti
al
Ca
nd
ida
te
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
US PRESIDENTIAL EXAMPLES
Thomas Jefferson
James Buchanan
Ab
rah
am L
inc
oln
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Confronter
Tra
ns
form
er
Gro
wer
Builder
George Washington
Jo
hn
Ad
ams
Ja
me
s M
ad
iso
n
Jo
hn
Ken
ne
dy
Dwight Eisenhower
Jimmy Carter
George W Bush
Rich
ard
Nix
on
– G
era
ld F
ord
Bill C
linto
n
Lyndon B Johnson
George H W Bush
Ro
na
ld R
ea
ga
n
Fran
klin
Ro
os
ev
elt –
Ha
rry Tru
ma
n
Andrew Johnson
1857 – 1869
19
33 –
Breakpoint
1789 – 1817
Bar
ac
k O
ba
ma
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
US PRESIDENTIAL EXAMPLES
Nelson Mandela
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Confronter
Tra
ns
form
er
Gro
wer
Builder
F W
de
Kle
rk
Fu
ture
Tra
nsf
orm
er
South Africa – Pre-Rainbow Republic
Breakpoint
South Africa – Rainbow Republic
Th
abo
Mb
eki
Jacob Zuma
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
SOUTH-AFRICAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES
Boris Yeltsin
Dmitry Medvedev
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Confronter
Tra
ns
form
er
Gro
wer
Builder
Mik
hai
l Go
rbac
hev
Breakpoint
Fu
ture
Tra
nsf
orm
er
Russian Federation
Vlad
imir P
utin
Soviet Union
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES
Robert Mugabe
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Confronter
Tra
ns
form
er
Gro
wer
Builder
Ian S
mith
Fu
ture
Tra
nsf
orm
er
Rhodesia – Zimbabwe
Breakpoint
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
ZIMBABWEAN LEADERSHIP EXAMPLES
Remarkable consistencies across different organizations
Inspiring leaders to limit their term Fundamental (rather than symbolic) consistencies Evidence of something more universal
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
FINDINGS
Why have I been able to compare totally different organizations?
What is the common denominator, what are the parallels?
Do these parallels also apply to leaderless “physical” organizations?
If so, what is the role of leaders?
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
SOMETHING MORE UNIVERSAL?
However, as the following examples show:
Organization does not determine harmonious action but
harmonious action determines organization!
According to any unabridged dictionary, to organize means:
“To form into a whole - consisting of independent parts -
especially for harmonious action”
What does “organization” mean?
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
SOMETHING MORE UNIVERSAL?
CO2
CO2
CH4 O2O2
CO2
Flame
A certain temperature inequality sets off
a fleeting stream of oxidation order.
Erwin Schrödinger
H2O as by-product unaccounted for
CH4 O2O2
CO2
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
At a certain temperature inequality,
simultaneous and congruent oxidation behavior
of hot gas molecules emerges spontaneously inside the
behavioral space vacated or created by others that are
moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue
in the shape of a flame.
Flame
In one universal paragraph...
CO2
CO2
CH4 O2O2
CO2
CH4 O2O2
CO2
H2O as by-product unaccounted for
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
A certain temperature inequality shapes
the structure of a snowflake.
Kenneth Libbrecht
Snowflake
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
At a certain temperature inequality,
simultaneous and congruent vibration behavior
of frozen water molecules emerges spontaneously
inside the behavioral space vacated or created by
others that are moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a
visible residue in the shape of a snowflake.
Snowflake
In one universal paragraph...
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
Snowflake Bénard Cell
Heat
View of surface from above
Petri dish
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
A certain temperature inequality makes
molecules follow orderly paths.
Henri Bénard, Ilya Prigogine
At a certain temperature inequality,
simultaneous and congruent heat-transport behavior
of liquid molecules emerges spontaneously inside the
behavioral space vacated or created by others that are
moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible
residue in the shape of a convection cell.
Snowflake Bénard Cell
In one universal paragraph...
Heat
View of surface from above
Petri dish
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
At a certain day-time inequality,
simultaneous and congruent flapping behavior
of migrating birds emerges spontaneously inside the
behavioral space vacated or created by others that are
moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible
residue in the shape of a flock of birds.
Snowflake Bird FlockBénard Cell
Blowin’ in the wind. The Economist (Nov 29 2008) - Strangely enough, leaders of a flock (or of a chase) also benefit through inverted slipstreaming
In one universal paragraph...
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
At a certain supply/demand inequality,
simultaneous and congruent role-inspired behavior
of employees emerges spontaneously inside the
behavioral space vacated or created by others that are
moving in sync. Such behavior leaves a visible residue
in the shape of a business organization.
Snowflake Bird FlockBénard Cell Organization
In one universal paragraph...
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
Environment Trigger Behavior-Pattern Species Environment-Sustained Organization
Visible Residue
UnderterminedEnvironment
Amplification /Transmission
Emergence / Selectionof Behavior Pattern
Inequality-InspiredBehavior-Pattern Reproduction
4-State Universality of Behavior-Pattern Species Emergence
FlameTemperature
Inequality
Oxidizing
Molecule
Congruently Igniting
Gas Molecules
Snowflake StructureTemperature
Inequality
Settling
Spot
Congruently Vibrating
Frozen Water Molecules
Business OrganizationSupply, Demand
Inequality
Entrepreneurial
Leadership
Congruently Working
People in Multiple Roles
Flock of BirdsDay-light
Inequality
Leading
Bird
Congruently Flapping
Birds
Bénard Cell PatternTemperature
Inequality
Surface
Perturbations
Congruently Moving
Liquid Molecules
Wrap-up
Inequality
Each stage is supported by a mathematical process-description in the domain of chaos theory.
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
The 2nd Law of ThermodynamicsRudolf Clausius, Ludwig Boltzmann, Erwin Schrödinger, Rod Swenson
Time With Organization
Inequality
Time
Time Without Organization
Gradient = Rate of Inequality Minimization
Nature spontaneously fosters forms of organization to minimize inequalities in the fastest way possible!
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
The environment – a complex of inequalities – determines the emergence of forms of organization!
“The process of evolution was reversed by returning fruit-flies to their ancestral environment from which they had diverged.”
Simon Conway Morris, “Life’s Solution”, Cambridge University Press (2003)
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
Shared by all forms of organization
Leadership Archetype
Confronter
Transformer
Builder
Grower
Confronter
Stage of Development
Creating a Level Playing Field
Finding a New Platform for Growth
Resonating with the Environment
Repeating Success Ever More Efficiently
Creating a Level Playing Field
Specific to human organization
Inequality-Inspired Behavior-Pattern Reproduction
Behavior-Pattern Emergence
Undertermined Environment
Amplification / Transmission
Emergence / Selection of Behavior Pattern
Undertermined Environment
A
B
C
D
D
State
Human Organization?
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
If organizations emerge by themselves, then what is the role of a leader?
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
Explaining Organization first
Behavior Patterns Visible Outcomes
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
Existential ManifoldVisible Outcomes
Behavior PatternsHidden World
The magazine in whichoutcomes are written
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Iceberg metaphor
PARALLELS OF ORGANIZATION
Existential Manifold Zine = Emzine
Inequality
Behavior-Pattern Species
1
Organization
2
All forms of organization emerge from the behavioral domain
Temperature
Daylight duration
Supply-Demand
Energy
Survival of the least-energy-fitting
Minimizing inequality through
Local Environment
Division of Labor into Roles
Natural Selection of Behavior-Pattern Species
Snowflake
Convection cell
Flock of Birds
Human Organization
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
EMZINE PHENOMENON
Global Scale
Local
Local
Local
Scale
Local Scale
Inequality
Behavior-Pattern Species
1
Organization
2
All forms of organization emerge from the behavioral domain
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
EMZINE PHENOMENON
Organization
Behavior-Pattern Species
Inequality
Division of Labor into Roles
Roles ≡ Complexity
Inequalities ≡ Entropy
Visible Outcomes over Time
Inequalities
Roles
Now: 4000 Minerals
Early Universe: No Minerals
Evolution of Rocks or Minerals
Atoms dynamically arranged in lattices creating unique crystalline
structures - not unlike snowflakes or human organizations
Source: David Corriveau. Dr Robert Hazen rocks Norwich’s geology community. Norwich University (December 2008)
Maintained by most physicistsWorld withers away
Emzine PhenomenonWorld of unimaginable order
Minimizing inequalities
Sum of all inequalities remains unchanged
1
2nd Law of Thermodynamics
1st Law of Thermodynamics
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION
A new principle of morality?
A new utility principle?
Organization
Behavior-Pattern Species
Inequality
Natural Selection of Behavior-Pattern Species2
Least-Energy Fitting
Behavioral Conditions Simultaneous behavior Sharing inequality-minimizing urge Behavioral space creation and utilization
= Congruent Simultaneity
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION
2nd Law of thermodynamicsPhysics
Economics
Human Conduct
Inequality
Behavior-Pattern Species
1
Organization
2
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
A NEW WINDOW ONTO OUR WORLD
The world, that we observe, too diverse to make sense of
The world of localized energy- inequalities that triggers it
The world of behavior-pattern species that reconciles it
PREDICTABLE STAGES
A world of behavior-patternsspecies that reconciles it
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
RECONCILING OUR WORLD
Context-specific
Universal
The world, that we observe, too diverse to make sense of
The world of localized energy inequalities that triggers it
LA
WS
OF T
HER
MO
DY
NA
MIC
S
EXPLANATIONS
Alfred Russel Wallace and Charles Darwin: What makes the branching tree of species grow?
Emzine = Zine where
forms of organization are written
Existential Manifold =
forms of organization observed
Niches, Species
Behavioral Domain
Visible Outcomes
Cause
Consequence
Re-explaining Evolution
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
PHYSICS OF ORGANIZATION
Reality in truth = an ecosystem of behavior-pattern species
We touch a sub-atomic abyss An atom is at least 15-times smaller than a molecule
An atom is at least 100,000 times bigger than its nucleus
Niches, Species
Behavioral Domain
Visible Outcomes
What is reality, really? Could it be what we touch or observe?
Gautama BuddhaOnly together they arise - pattica sumuppãda
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
EMZINE PHENOMENON
Behavioral Domain
Visible Outcomes
Cause
Consequence
Depicting the cyclical nature of emergence
1 2 3 4
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
EMZINE PHENOMENON
1 2 3 4
Behavioral Domain
Visible Outcomes
GroupCohesion
Source ofMomentum
GroupPerspective
Elasticity ofSocial Forces
Yin-Yang Features
Inward/Closed
Outward/Open
Outward/Open
Inward/Closed
Autonomy
Interdependence
Org
anizatio
nInd
ivid
ual
Fragmentation
IntegrationInelastic
Inelastic
Vision
Culture
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Identify where you are to learn where you go
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
Inclination
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Growth Rate
Rising
Declining
Stab
le
Un
cert
ain
Universal Features
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Identify where you are to learn where you go
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
Behavioral Domain
Visible Outcomes
Features of 4-State Universality of Emergence
BehavioralDomain
StateUndeterminedEnvironment
Amplification/Transmission
Emergence/Selectionof Behavior Patterns
Behavior PatternReproduction
Chaos PhenomenonOpenChaos
StochasticResonance
Behavior-AttractorDevelopment
ItinerantBehavior Attractor
Features
Group PerspectiveOutward/
OpenInward/Closed
Outward/Open
Inward/Closed
Source of MomentumInterdependence/
IndividualIndividual/
Need for AutonomyAutonomy/
OrganizationOrganization/
Need for Interdependence
Social ForceOpen-Mindedness/
BeliefBelief/Vision
Vision/Rulebooks
Rulebooks/Culture
Group CohesionContinuing
FragmentationFragmentation/
Emerging IntegrationContinuingIntegration
Integration/Emerging Fragmentation
Leadership InclinationConfront/
PurifyDiscover/Innovate
Nurture/ Niches
Specialize/Optimize
Growth RateDeclining/Uncertain
Uncertain/Rising
Rising/Stable
Stable/Declining
State Crises
Measure of Achievement New InitiativesIdentification of NewPlatform for Growth
Growth-ProducingBehavior Patterns
Degree of Responsivenessand Openness
Cause of CrisisLack of Amplification/
TransmissionNo Behavior-PatternEmergence/Selection
No Behavior-PatternReproduction/Improvement
Inadequate Response to New Inequalities
Crisis SolutionRe-Division of Labor
(Next state inspires roles)
Re-Division of Labor(Next state
inspires roles)
Re-Division of Labor(Next state
inspires roles)
Re-Division of Labor(Next state
inspires roles)
Identify where you are to learn where you go
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Transformer Builder GrowerConfronterLeadership Archetype
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
Michael Spindler
APPLE Steve Jobs
Gil
Am
elio
Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs Fro
m F
eatures to
Fo
recast
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Confronter
Tra
ns
form
er
Gro
wer
Builder
Breakpoint
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
My money's on turning iTunes into an iMedia store, and developing iWork and iLife into the Cloud.
Why Apple is Building a Massive $1 Billion Data Center…
Paving the wayfor Job’s successor…
Fro
m F
eatures to
Fo
recast
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Confronter
Tra
ns
form
er
Gro
wer
Builder
Breakpoint
Jo
hn
F. Sm
ith
Rick Wagoner
GENERAL MOTORS R. Stempel - J. Smale
Ro
ge
r B
. S
mit
h
Fritz Henderson - CEOA true Transformer?
Protégé of Confronter, Rick Wagoner Once Accountant with PWC Once GM’s CFO
Early 2009Capable of re-inventing GM?http://anewleadershipethos.blogspot.com/
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
Jo
hn
F. Sm
ith
Rick Wagoner
GENERAL MOTORS R. Stempel - J. Smale
Ro
ge
r B
. S
mit
h
Fro
m F
eatures to
Fo
recast
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Confronter
Tra
ns
form
er
Gro
wer
Builder
Breakpoint
Edward Whitacre
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
Kats
ua
ki Wa
tana
be
TOYOTA Fujio Chō
Fro
m F
eatures to
Fo
recast
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
Confronter
Tra
ns
form
er
Gro
wer
Builder
Breakpoint
Akio ToyodaReturn of the Yoda
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
http://anewleadershipethos.blogspot.com/
Predicting problems, solutions and leadership needs
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
Rising
Jack Welch, GROWER
19811972
R. H. Jones, BUILDER
Rising
Declining
2001
Jeffrey Immelt, CONFRONTER
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Predicting share-price evolutions
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Declining
2003
Rick Wagoner, CONFRONTER
Roger B. Smith, TRANSFORMER
1981
Undetermined
1990
Robert Stempel- John G. Smale, BUILDER
Rising
John F. Smith, GROWER
1996
Rising
Predicting share-price evolutions
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
1977
Steve Jobs, BUILDER
Steve Jobs, BUILDER
Rising
John Sculley, GROWER
Rising
1985
Michael Spindler, CONFRONTER
Declining
1993
Gil Amelio, TRANSFORMER
1996
Undetermined
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Predicting share-price evolutions
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
Improve share-price evolution by appointing the right leader
LEADERSHIP ARCHETYPE REVENUE GROWTH RATESHARE-PRICE EVOLUTION
A
B
C
D
State
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Rising
Declining
Undetermined
Rising
Stable Growth
Declining Growth
Uncertain Growth
Rising Growth
Grower
Confronter
Transformer
Builder
Predicting share-price evolutions
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
Nature is out to improve the efficiency of forms of organization – organizations
spontaneously emerge to minimize the inequalities in an era or environment
Awareness of their own functioning and emergence
The capacity to improve on their own emergence
They are self-referential or able to learn from self
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
From physical organizations - such as snowflakes
WHAT DISTINGUISHES HUMAN ORGANIZATION?
Nature is out to improve the efficiency of forms of organization – organizations
spontaneously emerge to minimize the inequalities in an era or environment
Leadership is not about action but about awareness
Leadership is not about managing time but about simultime
Leadership is not eternal but temporal
Leadership is not about leaders but about organization -
Ubuntu
2 3
1 4
2 3
1 4
2 3
1 4
2 3
1 4
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
A NEW LEADERSHIP ETHOS
DoubleLoop
The traditional playing field of leaders
Roles / Action
Goals
Loop 1
Awareness
SingleLoop
Nation / Company / Business Unit / Team
Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
External / Internal Conditions
Loop 2
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
Maybe separated spatially but mostly separated by time…
Sto
ve Pip
es of A
waren
ess
Y
Roles / Action
Goals
External / Internal Conditions
Loop 1
Loop 2
X
Awareness
Roles / Action
Goals
External / Internal Conditions
Loop 1
Loop 2
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
X
Roles / Action
Goals
External / Internal Conditions
Loop 1
Loop 2
Awareness
Y
Roles / Action
Goals
External / Internal Conditions
Loop 1
Loop 2
Maybe separated spatially but mostly separated by time…
Rising growth
Declining growth
Stab
le gro
wth
Un
cert
ain
gro
wth
Discover/Innovate
Nurture/Niches
Confront/Purify
Specialize/Optimize
ConfronterT
ran
sfo
rme
rG
row
er
Builder
LocalSymmetry
Global GaugeSymmetry
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Meta-Awareness
maintaining
/Creating meta-awareness: A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
TripleLoop
SingleLoop
DoubleLoop
Nations / Companies / Business Units / Teams
Awareness
Meta-Awareness
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Creating meta-awareness: The third loop
IMPROVING HUMAN ORGANIZATION
Emzine ProfileIdentification Expert Questionnaire
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
EXPE
RT S
YSTE
M
A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop
APPLIED TECHNOLOGY
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Three-step build-up of organizational meta-awareness
A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop
APPLIED TECHNOLOGY
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Am I the right leader for my organization?
A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop
APPLIED TECHNOLOGY
EM
ZIN
E P
RO
FIL
E
Emzine Profile
Identification
Questionnaire
EM
ZIN
E P
RO
FIL
E
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Analyze fit
A practical approach toward organizational effectiveness - The third loop
APPLIED TECHNOLOGY
FROM TO
Emzine
Awareness
Timeless Leadership
Built to Last
Due Diligence
Creation, Causality
Equality, Dependence
Time Interval
Sein, Being
Meta-awareness
Temporal Leadership
Grown to Achieve
Future Diligence
Self-creation, Conditioning
Inequality, Interdependence
Simultime
Dasein, Becoming
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
Leadership Trend Breakthroughs
HOW SOCIETY WILL DEAL WITH INEQUALITIES
5-MINUTE VIDEO SUMMARY
CLICK HERE TO RUN
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
www.emzine.org
Learning Points for Stock Analysts
Learning Points for HR/Executive Search Consultants
Learning Points for Leadership Coaches
Learning Points for Management Consultants and M&A Experts
Learning Points for Leaders
© Marc van der Erve – 2009/2010 A New Leadership Ethos – The Ability to Predict
QUESTIONS
Learning Points for Physicists, Economists and Philosophers