Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

Prepared by the

Indiana Business Research Center

April 2008

Indiana Population Projections2010 - 2040

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• Indiana will add 940,000 residents by 2040 – a 15% increase from 2005

• Indiana’s population will surpass 7 million by 2030 and stand at 7.2 million in 2040

• The senior population will grow 90% by 2040 (1 in 5 Hoosiers will be 65+)

• Indiana’s median age will increase 3.5 years by 2040

Highlights

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• 65 of 92 counties will see population growth over this period

• The 10‐county Indy metro area will account for 54% of the state’s growth

• Hamilton County will add >200,000 residents –an 85% increase over 2005

• Marion County will add 141,000 residents, surpassing 1 million residents, by 2040 

Highlights

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• No assumptions are made about future economic conditions or policy decisions

• These projections rely exclusively on recent rates of migration, fertility, and mortality

• The projections reflect the likely future trends if these rates continue (with some minor assumptions)

About the Projections

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• Indiana grew by an average of 350K each decade between 1900 to 2000

• The state will grow an average of 283K per decade between 2000 to 2040

Total Growth

01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Indiana Total Population, 1900 - 2040

Actual Projected

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• The 1990s trailed only the ’50s in total growth by decade• Growth will decline slightly each decade through 2040

Total Growth

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000

1900 -1910

1920 -1930

1940 -1950

1960 -1970

1980 -1990

2000 -2010

2020 -2030

Population Growth by Decade

Actual Projected

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• Indiana’s share of U.S population will continue to decline as growth trends towards the South and West

• Indiana would need 3 million more residents in 2040 to match the share of U.S population it held in 1970   

Total Growth

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Indiana as a % of U.S Population, 1900 - 2040

Actual ProjectedSource: U.S. national projections from the U.S. Census Bureau

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• The distribution of Indiana’s population by age will shift dramatically as Baby Boomers enter retirement years

Total Growth

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-plus

280 210 140 70 0 70 140 210 280

Th d

Indiana Population Distribution by Age & Gender, 2005 (thousands)

Female

Male

0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-plus

280 210 140 70 0 70 140 210 280

Indiana Population Distribution by Age & Gender, 2040 (thousands)

Female

Male

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

By 2025:

• Hamilton County will add 169K residents representing 28% of total state growth

• Hendricks and Marion counties will each add 59K (9.6% of total growth apiece)

• 29 counties will lose population 

Total Growth

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• Hamilton, Hendricks, Boone, Johnson, and Hancock counties will grow by greater than 20% by 2025

Total Growth

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• The senior population increases from a 12 to 21% share of the state’s population

• Shares for all other age groups will decline

Aging Population

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Share of Population by Age Group, 2005 to 2040

0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• In 2005, there were 2 working age Hoosiers for each non‐working age resident.  This ratio drops to 1.5 to 1 by 2040. 

Aging Population

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Non-working Age Group Share of Total Population, 2005 to 2040

Under 15 65 and Over

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• Indiana’s median age will increase from 36.3 to 39.8• 75% of counties will have median age above 40

Aging Population

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Distribution of Counties by Median Age, 2005 to 2040

Under 30 30 to 34.9 35 to 39.9 40 or Older

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• Populous counties such as Marion, Hamilton, Allen, St. Jos., Elkhart and Porter will have median ages below 40 in 2040

• Youngest counties are characterized by large college student or Amish populations   

Aging Population

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

Aging Population

23.9%1.8%

14.0%61.7%63.7%

54.8%20.8%

-4.4%-15.8%-9.6%

3.6%7.6%7.2%

0.6%-1.6%

-4.4%1.9%

6.1%

85-plus80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Percent Change by Age, 2005 to 2020

134.8%105.3%

92.6%89.3%

60.3%43.8%

13.6%-2.0%-6.2%-7.3%

3.5%7.1%

3.4%1.6%2.5%1.3%5.6%7.9%

85-plus80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Percent Change by Age, 2005 to 2040

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• Indiana will lose population in the prime working age groups 

• Rural areas will be particularly hard hit

Labor Force

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Percent Change in 25 to 54 Age Group, 2005 to 2040

MSA Counties (46) Non-MSA Counties (46) Indiana Total

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• Suburban Indy counties will attract population in the prime working age groups. 

• East‐central and north‐central regions of the state will experience significant declines in these age groups 

Labor Force

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• Expect uneven geographic change in 25–54 group with the Indy metro adding 53K while the state declines on the whole

• Other metros to see growth are Lafayette (7.4%), Elkhart‐Goshen (5.0%),  Bloomington ( 3.2%), Fort Wayne (0.4%)

Labor Force

-1.7%

7.2%

-5.1%-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Indiana Indy Metro Remainder of State

Percent Change in Population Age 25 - 54 by Selected Regions, 2005 - 2025

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

Components of Change

• 20 counties will experience a natural decrease (more deaths than births) between 2005 and 2040.  

• Natural decrease counties will mostly be rural.

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

• 57% if Indiana counties will have a net out­migration over this period  

• Suburban Indy counties will attractmigrants

• West‐Central and portions of Southern Indiana will see in‐migration  as well.

Components of Change

Indiana Business Research CenterKelley School of Business, Indiana University

Indiana Population Projections: 2010 to 2040

www.ibrc.indiana.edu

www.stats.indiana.edu

www.census.gov

Technical questions:

Matt Kinghorn, DemographerIndiana Business Research Centerkinghorn@indiana.edu812-855-5507

More Information