Post on 14-Oct-2020
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Impact of the MJO on tropical storms in the ECMWF EPS
Frédéric Vitart
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Outline
1. Improvements in the simulation of MJO and TCs at ECMWF
2. Hindcast Experiment
3. Impact of the MJO on model tropical storms
3. Conclusion
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Observational studies
• Western North Pacific:
Nakazawa (1988); Liebmann et al (1994)
• Eastern North Pacific:
Molinari et al, (1997); Maloney and Hartmann (2000)
• Gulf of Mexico:
Maloney and Hartmann (2000); Mo (2002)
• South Indian Ocean:
Bessafi and Wheeler (2006); Ho et al (2006)
• Australian region:
Hall et al (2001)
• Impact on tropical cyclone genesis index: Camargo et al (2009)
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
PHASE AMPLITUDEVelocity potential
MJO Prediction
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
OLR- Forecast range: day 15
32R3
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
ERA40
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10-1
0
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
ewku
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
ex6i
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
ERA40
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
ERA40
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10-1
0
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
ewku
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
ex6i
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
days
29/12
05/01
12/01
20/01
28/01
04/04
12/02
28R3 29R1 31R1 32R2
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
ERA40
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10-1
0
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
ewku
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/02
31/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/01
31/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
ex6i
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
ERA40
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10-1
0
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
elz5
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/02
31/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/01
31/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
ek7h
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
ERA40
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10-1
0
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
elz5
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
ek7h
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
ERA40
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10-1
0
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
es8c
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/02
31/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/01
31/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
er98
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
10/04 04/05 09/06 06/07
11/07
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
ERA40
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/02
31/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/01
31/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
f4i5-1
0
-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/02
31/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/01
31/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
f1xi
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
ERA40
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/02
31/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/01
31/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
f4i5
-10
-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
f1xi
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/02
31/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/01
31/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
ERA40
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
f46n
10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
Ensemble mean
f6ju
10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
-10
15/0214/0213/0212/0211/0210/02 9/02 8/02 7/02 6/02 5/02 4/02 3/02 2/02 1/0231/0130/0129/0128/0127/0126/0125/0124/0123/0122/0121/0120/0119/0118/0117/0116/0115/0114/0113/0112/0111/0110/01 9/01 8/01 7/01 6/01 5/01 4/01 3/01 2/01 1/0131/1230/1229/12
33R1 35R1 35R3
06/08 09/08 09/09
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Convection changes to operational massflux scheme (CY32R3)
New formulation of convective entrainment:
Previously linked to moisture convergence
– Now more dependent on the relative dryness of the environment
New formulation of relaxation timescale used in massflux closure:
Previously only varied with horizontal resolution – Now a variable that is dependent
on the convective turnover timescale i.e. variable in both space and time also
Impact of these changes is large including a major increase in tropical
variability
Bechtold et al, QJRMS, 2008
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Tropical Cyclone Tracking (Vitart 1997, 2003)
Step 1: Detection of intense vortices with a warm core for each time step:
• A local maximum of 850 hPa vorticity is located
• The closest minimum of sea level pressure is defined as the centre of the storm
• Detection of a warm core above the centre of the storms
Step 2: Connect the vortices into tracks:
• The steering wind is used to compute a first guess.
• maximum wind velocity at 10m should exceed 17 m/s. Criteria are resolution dependent.
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Tropical storm climatology: 1978-2007- ASO
HURDAT CY32R3 CY30R1 (SYS3)
TS genesis
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
< 1 1.. 2 2.. 3 3.. 4 4.. 5 5.. 6 6.. 7 7.. 8 8.. 9 > 9
TS density
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
< 1 1.. 2 2.. 3 3.. 4 4.. 5 5.. 6 6.. 7 7.. 8 8.. 9 > 9
TS density
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
< 1 1.. 2 2.. 3 3.. 4 4.. 5 5.. 6 6.. 7 7.. 8 8.. 9 > 9
Number of tropical storm last day within 2 degrees
Number of tropical storm days within 2 degrees
TS density
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
< 2 2.. 4 4.. 6 6.. 8 8.. 10 10.. 12 12.. 16 16.. 18 18.. 20 > 20
TS density
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
< 2 2.. 3 3.. 4 4.. 8 8.. 10 10.. 12 12.. 16 16.. 18 18.. 20 > 20
TS density
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
< 2 2.. 4 4.. 6 6.. 8 8.. 10 10.. 12 12.. 16 16.. 20 20.. 24 > 24
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
HURDAT EPS
AUG.
SEPT.
OCT.
TS density
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
< 2 2.. 4 4.. 6 6.. 8 8.. 10 10.. 12 12.. 16 16.. 18 18.. 20 > 20
TS density
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
< 2 2.. 4 4.. 6 6.. 8 8.. 10 10.. 12 12.. 16 16.. 18 18.. 20 > 20
TS density
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
< 2 2.. 4 4.. 6 6.. 8 8.. 10 10.. 12 12.. 16 16.. 18 18.. 20 > 20
TS density
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
< 2 2.. 4 4.. 6 6.. 8 8.. 10 10.. 12 12.. 16 16.. 18 18.. 20 > 20
TS density
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
< 2 2.. 4 4.. 6 6.. 8 8.. 10 10.. 12 12.. 16 16.. 18 18.. 20 > 20
TS density
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
60°N 60°N
70°N70°N
100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0°
< 2 2.. 4 4.. 6 6.. 8 8.. 10 10.. 12 12.. 16 16.. 18 18.. 20 > 20
Number of tropical storm days within 2 degrees
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Forecast Biases Precipitation for DJF against GPCP for different cycles: from 15 year 5
months integrations for 1990-2005.
CY31R1 Sep 2006
CY32R3 Nov 2007CY32R2 June 2007
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Hindcast Experiment
• 15-member ensemble forecasts starting on the 15th of each
month from 1989 to 2008.
• 46-day integrations
• Cycle 32R3
• T399 (50 km) uncoupled till day 10 and T255 (80km)
coupled after day 10
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Ocean only integration
Coupled forecast at TL255 (80 km)
Day 46
Atmosphere-only Integration at T399 (50 km)
Initial condition
Heat flux, Wind stress, P-E
Day 10
Experimental setup
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
46-day hindcast experiment
• Atmospheric initial conditions: ERA40 + ECMWF
operational analysis
• Oceanic initial conditions: ECMWF Ocean Reanalysis
• Perturbations:
Atmosphere: Singular vectors + stochastic physics
Ocean: wind stress perturbations during data assimilation.
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
MJO Diagnostics
Combined EOF1
Combined EOF2
From Wheeler and Hendon, BMRC
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
MJO FORECAST
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
RMM1
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
RM
M2
FORECAST BASED 15/05/1997 00UTC
ECMWF MONTHLY FORECASTS
and Africa
West Hem.
Continent
Maritime
Pacific
Western
Ocean
Indian
2
1
8
7 6
5
4
3
Day 1 Day 5 Day 10
Day 15 Day 20 Analysis
Ens. Mean Verification
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Amplitude of the MJO
Mean of the
ensembleIndividual ensemble members
Mean standard deviation of PC1 and PC2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Time range (Days)
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Am
plit
ud
e o
f th
e M
JO
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
MJO Propagation
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
RMM1
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
RM
M2
FORECAST BASED 24/01/2008 00UTC
ECMWF MONTHLY FORECASTS
and Africa
West Hem.
Continent
Maritime
Pacific
Western
Ocean
Indian
2
1
8
7 6
5
4
3
Day 1 Day 5 Day 10
Day 15 Day 20 Analysis
Ens. Mean Verification
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Skill to predict MJO
PC1 PC2
Correlation with analysis (ERA Interim)
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
NDJFMAObservations Model
JASON
TS GENESIS
30°S30°S
20°S 20°S
10°S10°S
0° 0°
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W
< 10 10.. 15 15.. 20 20.. 25 25.. 30 30.. 35 35.. 40 40.. 45 45.. 50 > 50
TS GENESIS
30°S30°S
20°S 20°S
10°S10°S
0° 0°
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W
< 10 10.. 15 15.. 20 20.. 25 25.. 30 30.. 35 35.. 40 40.. 45 45.. 50 > 50
TS GENESIS
30°S30°S
20°S 20°S
10°S10°S
0° 0°
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W
< 10 10.. 15 15.. 20 20.. 25 25.. 30 30.. 35 35.. 40 40.. 45 45.. 50 > 50
TS GENESIS
30°S30°S
20°S 20°S
10°S10°S
0° 0°
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W
< 10 10.. 15 15.. 20 20.. 25 25.. 30 30.. 35 35.. 40 40.. 45 45.. 50 > 50
Tropical Cyclone Genesis climatology
1989-2008
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Tropical Cyclone Density climatology
1989-2008
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
MJO Composites of VP200 hPa
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 15 November 1991 00UTC 200hPa Velocity potential
20
30
40
50
60
68.93
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
Phase 1 ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 15 November 1991 00UTC 200hPa Velocity potential
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
20
30
40
50
56.35
Phase 2 ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 15 November 1991 00UTC 200hPa Velocity potential
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
20
30
37.92
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 15 November 1991 00UTC 200hPa Velocity potential
20
30
40
46.83
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
Phase 3 Phase 4
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 15 November 1991 00UTC 200hPa Velocity potential
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
20
30
40
50
59.09
Phase 6 ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 15 November 1991 00UTC 200hPa Velocity potential
20
30
40
50
60
70
76.80
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 15 November 1991 00UTC 200hPa Velocity potential
20
30
40
50
60
70
74.74
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
Phase 7 Phase 8 ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 15 November 1991 00UTC 200hPa Velocity potential
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
Phase 5
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
MJO Composite- NDJFMA
Tropical storm density anomaly
Vitart, 2009, GRL
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
MJO Composite- ASO
Tropical storm density anomaly
Vitart, 2009, GRL
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
MJO Composite- ASO
Tropical storm density anomaly
Vitart, 2009, GRL
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Australia
NDJFMA
South+East US
Coast
ASO
West Coast
US+Mexico
ASO
Phase 2+3 -50%
(-30%)
+45%
(+73%)
+43%
(+100%)
Phase 4+5 +50%
(+96%)
-16%
(-56%)
-22%
(-68%)
Phase 6+7 +71%
(+25%)
-30%
(-71%)
-37%
(-83%)
Phase 8+1 -22%
(-70%)
+9%
(+80%)
+39%
(+100%)
Landfall Activity
Vitart, GRL, 2009
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Product
ECMWF:
Weather and Climate
Dynamical Forecasts
Medium-Range
Forecasts
Day 1-10(15)
Monthly
Forecast
Day 10-32
Seasonal
Forecasts
Month 2-7
Forecasting systems at ECMWF
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
The seamless EPS/monthly ensemble system
On the 11th of Mar ‘08 the 15-day variable resolution EPS (VAREPS) was merged with the monthly ensemble system; since then the 00 UTC forecasts use a coupled ocean model from day 10.
Jan ’06: 00 & 12 Z
Feb ’06: 00 & 12 Z
Sep ’06: 00 & 12 Z
TL255L40
TL399L62
TL255L62TL399L62
TL399L62 TL255L62 TL255L62
T=0 10 d 32 d15 d
TL255L62TL399L62Mar ’08: 12 Z
00 Z
(TL399 ~ 50 km in grid point space, TL255 ~ 80 km)
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Seamless prediction of tropical storms
Forecast Products Users Meeting 10-12 June 2009
Slide 30
Tropical cyclone Aila (24-25 May 2009)
Str ike Probability (%)
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
60°E
60°E 80° E
80° E
5.. 10 10.. 2 0 20.. 3 0 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 6 0 60.. 70 70.. 8 0 80.. 9 0 > 90%
Str ike Probability (%)
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
60°E
60°E 80° E
80° E
5.. 10 10.. 2 0 20.. 3 0 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 6 0 60.. 70 70.. 8 0 80.. 9 0 > 90%
90 °E80° E70° E60°E50° E
90 °E80° E70° E60°E50° E
40° N
30° N
20° N
10° N
40°N
30° N
20°N
10° N
5.. 10 10.. 20 20.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 60 60.. 70 70.. 80 80.. 90 > 90%
y p g
EPS from 7 May: days 19-25
(25 - 31 May)
EPS from 14 May: days 12-18
(25 - 31 May)
EPS from 20 May: h 96-144
(24 - 26 May)
Tropical cyclone Aila observed
24-25 May 2009
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Monthly prediction Of TC activity
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
FORECAST BASED 7/5/2009 00UTC
ENSEMBLE MEAN BETWEEN LAT 15S AND 15N
Velocity potential anomaly at 200 hPa
HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST
2
22
2
2
2
2
2
2
6
6
6
6
6
10
10
14
-10
-6-6
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
8/06
6/06
4/06
2/06
31/05
29/05
27/05
25/05
23/05
21/05
19/05
17/05
15/05
13/05
11/05
9/05
7/05
5/05
3/05
1/05
29/04
27/04
25/04
23/04
21/04
19/04
17/04
15/04
13/04
11/04
9/04
7/04
5/04
FO
RE
CA
ST
A
NA
LY
SIS
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
LONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
FORECAST BASED 7/5/2009 00UTC
ENSEMBLE MEAN BETWEEN LAT 15S AND 15N
Velocity potential anomaly at 200 hPa
HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
6
6
6
6
10
14
-10
-6
-6
-6
-6
-2
-2-2
-2
-2
-2
-2 -2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
8/06
6/06
4/06
2/06
31/05
29/05
27/05
25/05
23/05
21/05
19/05
17/05
15/05
13/05
11/05
9/05
7/05
5/05
3/05
1/05
29/04
27/04
25/04
23/04
21/04
19/04
17/04
15/04
13/04
11/04
9/04
7/04
5/04
FO
RE
CA
ST
A
NA
LY
SIS
VP200 Anomaly
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Monthly forecasts of tropical storms- 20090806
Day 5-11 Day 12-18
Day 19-25 Day 26-32
340°E320°E300°E280°E260°E240°E220°E200°E180°E160°E140°E120°E100°E80°E60°E40°E20°E
340°E320°E300°E280°E260°E240°E220°E200°E180°E160°E140°E120°E100°E80°E60°E40°E20°E
80°N
70°N
60°N
50°N
40°N
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
80°N
70°N
60°N
50°N
40°N
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
< 10% 10.. 20 20.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 60 60.. 70 70.. 80 80.. 90 > 90%
Probability of a TS passing within 500km radius
Weekly mean Tropical Storm Strike Probability. Date: 20090806 0 UTC t+(264-408)
340°E320°E300°E280°E260°E240°E220°E200°E180°E160°E140°E120°E100°E80°E60°E40°E20°E
340°E320°E300°E280°E260°E240°E220°E200°E180°E160°E140°E120°E100°E80°E60°E40°E20°E
80°N
70°N
60°N
50°N
40°N
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
80°N
70°N
60°N
50°N
40°N
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
< 10% 10.. 20 20.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 60 60.. 70 70.. 80 80.. 90 > 90%
Probability of a TS passing within 500km radius
Weekly mean Tropical Storm Strike Probability. Date: 20090806 0 UTC t+( 96-240)
340°E320°E300°E280°E260°E240°E220°E200°E180°E160°E140°E120°E100°E80°E60°E40°E20°E
340°E320°E300°E280°E260°E240°E220°E200°E180°E160°E140°E120°E100°E80°E60°E40°E20°E
80°N
70°N
60°N
50°N
40°N
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
80°N
70°N
60°N
50°N
40°N
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
< 10% 10.. 20 20.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 60 60.. 70 70.. 80 80.. 90 > 90%
Probability of a TS passing within 500km radius
Weekly mean Tropical Storm Strike Probability. Date: 20090806 0 UTC t+(432-576)
340°E320°E300°E280°E260°E240°E220°E200°E180°E160°E140°E120°E100°E80°E60°E40°E20°E
340°E320°E300°E280°E260°E240°E220°E200°E180°E160°E140°E120°E100°E80°E60°E40°E20°E
80°N
70°N
60°N
50°N
40°N
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
80°N
70°N
60°N
50°N
40°N
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°N
10°S
20°S
30°S
40°S
50°S
60°S
70°S
80°S
< 10% 10.. 20 20.. 30 30.. 40 40.. 50 50.. 60 60.. 70 70.. 80 80.. 90 > 90%
Probability of a TS passing within 500km radius
Weekly mean Tropical Storm Strike Probability. Date: 20090806 0 UTC t+(600-744)
High Resolution Modeling Workshop- Trieste 10-14 August 2009
Conclusion
• MJO and Tropical Cyclone activity are more realistic since
32R3
• The MJO suffers from a too slow propagation and has
difficulties to cross the Maritime Continent.
• The model simulates a realistic impact of the MJO on
model tropical storms, although the impact tends to be
weaker than observed
• First step towards seamless prediction of tropical storms:
merging of the EPS and monthly forecasting systems.